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Thread: Stubbs is the real deal

  1. #31
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    Strikeouts don't bother me once a player reaches the upper levels of the minors and then the majors. However, when you look at strikeout and walk rates in college and the lower minors, they give you an indication of a player's ability to hit and control the strike zone.

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  3. #32
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    Strike outs don't bother me much, just an out like the rest.
    but at the collegiate level considering the competition the numbers have caused teams to question his hitting skills. There is no question about his physical skills and defensive ability but almost everyone had the same concern about Stubbs, would he be able to hit enough at the major league level to be an everyday player. And without a doubt the hardest skill to acquire if you don't have it is the ability to hit. Stubbs has huge upside potential as well as being high risk because of his questionable hitting skills.

    Will he pan out? No one knows but one thing I think is probably true is that he will not be on a fast track to the majors. He will need time and reps to refine his hitting skills.

    A lot of people are reminded of BJ who in 2004 was the consensus best athlete in the draft with great physical and defensive skills. The only question with him was the same as Stubbs, would he hit? Certainly Stubbs has played a much higher level of competition.
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  4. #33
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Adam Dunn has something Stubbs has shown he doesnt. The ability to walk. Adam Dunn may strikeout a TON, but he also walks a TON. Stubbs on the other hand, well he strikes out a ton, and walks none.
    So, what is your definition of "walks none?"

    Here's the facts:

    2006 .342/.439/.580/1.019 OBA above BA is 97 points
    2005 .311/.384/.527/.911 OBA above BA is 73 points
    2004 .301/.372/.474/.846 OBA above BA is 71 points

    If you do not think the choice is all that, that's fine. But at least don't play fast and loose with the facts. Someone that "walks none" does not have an OBP nearly 100 points above his batting average. In fact, when I was reviewing his performance when I heard he was likely the Reds pick, that was something that made me scratch my head on the "scouts wonder if he'll hit." That seems to be contact based, and if outs are outs in the major league, than outs are outs in the college game. If someone is getting on base nearly 45% of the time, with a steady improvement from their sophomore to senior seasons, and adds to that game five tools with superior defense in CF, which has not been disputed by anyone, even by those less than thrilled with the pick, he sounds like a high first round pick to me.

    Of course, the irony is that a big deal is made of his K's as the primary basis for the scouts concern, from what I see, but the K's are coming from college pitchers that we want the Reds to draft (obviously he may not have faced all of the high 1st round college pitchers, but you get my drift).
    Last edited by traderumor; 06-07-2006 at 11:36 AM.
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  5. #34
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    I posted this in another thread, but I'll post it again here since this is about Stubbs.

    I actually don't mind Stubbs to much. I would have loved to have Lincecum or Drabek, but I can live with Stubbs. I figure with he and Loo in the fold our top propect list might now look something like this:

    1. Bailey
    2. Bruce
    3. Stubbs
    4. Wood
    5. Cueto
    6. Votto
    7. Loo

    # 3, #4 and #5 may be interchangable. I'm not sure if Cueto has passed Wood yet, but he's doing better at the same level, although he's a year older. I'll keep wood higher based on age, ceiling, and because he's a lefty.

  6. #35
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    So, what is your definition of "walks none?"

    Here's the facts:

    2006 .342/.439/.580/1.019 OBA above BA is 97 points
    2005 .311/.384/.527/.911 OBA above BA is 73 points
    2004 .301/.372/.474/.846 OBA above BA is 71 points

    If you do not think the choice is all that, that's fine. But at least don't play fast and loose with the facts. Someone that "walks none" does not have an OBP nearly 100 points above his batting average. In fact, when I was reviewing his performance when I heard he was likely the Reds pick, that was something that made me scratch my head on the "scouts wonder if he'll hit." That seems to be contact based, and if outs are outs in the major league, than outs are outs in the college game. If someone is getting on base nearly 45% of the time, with a steady improvement from their sophomore to senior seasons, and adds to that game five tools with superior defense in CF, which has not been disputed by anyone, even by those less than thrilled with the pick, he sounds like a high first round pick to me.

    Of course, the irony is that a big deal is made of his K's as the primary basis for the scouts concern, from what I see, but the K's are coming from college pitchers that we want the Reds to draft (obviously he may not have faced all of the high 1st round college pitchers, but you get my drift).
    Read the rest of the posts first. I stated that I was wrong and I just heard something wrong.

  7. #36
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Read the rest of the posts first. I stated that I was wrong and I just heard something wrong.
    I did not see that. But after laying out those stats, I'm even more convinced that this was a reasonable pick for the position. An outfield of Stubbs and Bruce is a nice projectable.
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  8. #37
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    TR, I am not so down on the Stubbs pick today as I was yesterday. Not sure if its that the rest of our draft has looked so bad, or if it was just me being upset that they took the one guy I didnt want. He is with us now, so I wish him the best and hope that I am wrong and that Stubbs tears the cover off the ball.

  9. #38
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    TR, I am not so down on the Stubbs pick today as I was yesterday.
    I guess how down I am in the future will depend on how things play out for Lincecum.
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  10. #39
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    Well I would have rather had a few guys than Stubbs myself flyer....starting with Kyle Drabek.

  11. #40
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Well I would have rather had a few guys than Stubbs myself flyer....starting with Kyle Drabek.
    Even though I like Stubbs, I also liked Scherzer of Missouri. If the Reds took Scherzer, I would have been pleased, also. I wasn't as high on Linecum because I'm not a fan of funky deliveries and I think he has been very overworked for 3 years in college.

  12. #41
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Well I would have rather had a few guys than Stubbs myself flyer....starting with Kyle Drabek.
    Who knows with Drabek though. I wouldn't have minded at all if he was drafted, but the Reds might have pulled him from their board completely. And without having the info they have I can't criticize them if that was the case.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  13. #42
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    edit.

  14. #43
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    stubbs and bruce.

    the O'Neill and Jones of another generation?
    4009



  15. #44
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    Quote Originally Posted by ochre
    stubbs and bruce.

    the O'Neill and Jones of another generation?
    I am hoping for something more along the lines of Daniels & Davis.

  16. #45
    C-A-T-S CATS! CATS! CATS! WVRed's Avatar
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    Re: Stubbs is the real deal

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainHook
    I am hoping for something more along the lines of Daniels & Davis.
    I'm thinking what Dunn and Kearns should have been.
    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
    I've read books about sparkling vampires who walk around in the daylight that were written better than a John Fay article.


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