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Thread: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

  1. #16
    Member New Fever's Avatar
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    "Does your farm generate an inpact player in the major leagues every year?"

    Not many teams do this every year. Maybe you can say the Marlins with Willis,Beckett,Cabrera,etc.. but who esle? Teams like the Padres and Rockies are always ahead of the Reds when the Reds have had some impact talent every year.
    2006-Ede,Coffey
    2005-Lopez-He did play some years in Louisville
    2004-Wmp- 26hr's
    2003-Ryan Wagner was pretty solid with a 1.66 era although it was only 17 games.
    2002-Kearns he Ops. 907 Reitsma also had a good year starting 21 games with a 3.64 era
    2001- Dunn
    2000- Larue came up around this time altough he didn't produce that well
    1999- Scott Williamson was the NL Rookie of the year

    So the Reds have had some talent come from the minors, everyone wasn't drafted by the Reds but they did play in the farm system. The scouting department has been pretty good though considering they picked Sowers,Markakis, and wanted to draft Kazmir.

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  3. #17
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    My take: We have some prospects, it's just that most other teams have more or better.

    But there's a good point in this thread -- rankings are volatile, and I'm more interested in the multi-year moving average than a snapshot. A team's system can deliver a wave of talent to the big club, which means it's doing its job, but the next year's ranking takes a hit because those players aren't prospects anymore. BP took a stab at rectifying that by looking at organizations' 25-and-under talent, which takes the farm system and adds in young players who are already in the majors, and the Reds came out better (although still average).
    Not all who wander are lost

  4. #18
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    The main problem with the system is that there is no one with a high ceiling at AA or AAA. Except Deno, who's ceiling Manute Bol couldn't even touch. But seriously, I'll be here all week. Don't forget to tip Deno, b/c he'll beat you down so bad your 2nd grade teacher will feel it.

    So anyway, back to my post. The Reds' top prospects are in high A or lower and are harder to project. If these guys were performing like this in AA or AAA, they would be higher. The risk of A players is too high to actually push the Reds into the upper echelon of systems. If things go as they currently are, I would assume Cincy would rise next year with Bailey, Cueto, Stubbs, Wood and Bruce leading the way. Hopefully some of these guys move a level during the year to challenge them. I really hope Stubbs is in AA by September.

  5. #19
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    Baseball America, in the year's i've been reading in subscribing to it, and I'm sure they are guilty of this long before I became a reader, has a huge problem in that they love "perfect" ball players. So really you end up with prospect lists that are filled with two types of players.

    Those who are special and put up numbers at any level, and those who haven't played long enough to show any flaws - eg "Perfect" players. That is one thing that always has bugged me for the longest time about reading that magazine, is the love shown to toosly guys who haven't shown anything at the higher levels. I tend to give more credence at higher levels. It's much more impressive to me to hit .280 at AAA than .300 in rookie ball.

    If you check out the Top prospects list every year, BA hugely overrates the latest draft and players in low A. As a guy works his way up the system and flaws are shown, he's discarded and the new fresh blood is worshipped. Mark Schramek was the Reds 10th best prospect in 2003, before he'd ever taken a pro swing.
    Chris Gruler was the Reds No. 1 Prospect that year, again, before he'd done anything as a pro. Once again, they were "perfect" players.

  6. #20
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    I think what Paul is getting to is BA's list or ranking does not give an indication of how well the MLB club will do. And to an extent he is correct. However, I would assume that BA does not profess that their ranking would give an indication of the success or otherwise of the MLB club. I just think that sometimes you can look too much at the lower levels for a club to be a success in the future without looking at what it can do now. You look at the perennial top farm clubs like the Dodgers and Brewers but that doesn't always lead to success. As with all things in baseball there needs to be a balance.

  7. #21
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    Quote Originally Posted by New Fever
    "Does your farm generate an inpact player in the major leagues every year?"

    Not many teams do this every year. Maybe you can say the Marlins with Willis,Beckett,Cabrera,etc.. but who esle? Teams like the Padres and Rockies are always ahead of the Reds when the Reds have had some impact talent every year.
    2006-Ede,Coffey
    2005-Lopez-He did play some years in Louisville
    2004-Wmp- 26hr's
    2003-Ryan Wagner was pretty solid with a 1.66 era although it was only 17 games.
    2002-Kearns he Ops. 907 Reitsma also had a good year starting 21 games with a 3.64 era
    2001- Dunn
    2000- Larue came up around this time altough he didn't produce that well
    1999- Scott Williamson was the NL Rookie of the year

    So the Reds have had some talent come from the minors, everyone wasn't drafted by the Reds but they did play in the farm system. The scouting department has been pretty good though considering they picked Sowers,Markakis, and wanted to draft Kazmir.
    Lopez was not a product of the Reds farm system in any way. Kearns is only just now making an impact.

    Remember, It doesn't necessarily mean that impact player is in the Reds system, and impact also doesn't mean starter.

    The Dodgers had a great run of ROY's that also were impact players for years. That would be a high water mark. But trading a Basham for the kind of impact David Ross is making is what I am talking about.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  8. #22
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    To pick nits at the base note, only Coffey was a homegrown player.

    Ramirez came from the Phillies farm system (Corey Lidle trade) and EE from the Rangers (Rob Bell trade).

    Pay attention to the open sky

  9. #23
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    EE came to the Reds at 19 so I think he is a home grown player.

  10. #24
    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    Wasn't Broussard in the Reds system (maybe he wasn't)? Or doesn't he count because he's on a different team...
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

  11. #25
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    TRF, You are right on Lopez i thought his first full was with the Reds but he had about 350 abs with the BlueJays. Also I was referring to his question does BA get the 30 teams prospect rankings right. I think the Reds are ranked lower most years because of the media perception that Reds wouldn't spend money. This was true for a couple years between 2001-2003. BA would constantly right about how the Reds might not sign a draft pick or just drafted someone because he was an easy sign. I believe this is why the Reds Farm System has been ranked extremely low and last year dead last.

  12. #26
    Lover of Trivialities Doc. Scott's Avatar
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    Although EdE was primarily developed in the Reds system. Elizardo a little bit, but not near as much.

    I might give the Reds credit for "developing" Encarnacion, but not Ramirez. Or Felipe Lopez, either.

  13. #27
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    If a player like Travis Chick developed into a solid major league pitcher, would the Reds get credit for his development?

  14. #28
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    Yeah, I guess I'm picking at semantics and picking nits.

    When I say "homegrown", I mean scouted, drafted, signed, and brought up purely through the Reds' fam system.

    "Developed" is a slightly different beast. Since EE only played one year of GCL ball for the Rangers and then all the rest in the Reds' farm system, you could say the Reds developed him. The Lizard came up through the Phils farm system up to AA ball and then to the big club. They probably deserve the credit for developing him.

    Broussard was a Reds product through the Reds' farm system. Lots of Casey vs. Broussard discussion back in the day. He went to the Indians for Russell Branyan.

    Pay attention to the open sky

  15. #29
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    The Reds farm was ranked low because it was awful. plain and simple. Look at some of the previous top reds prospects:

    Howington
    Aramboles
    Gruler
    Smitherman
    Dawkins
    Wagner

    awful. just awful.

    Low A and High A have much improved pitching. The defense in Sarasota, well, sucks. AA has a group of at least interesting arms. AAA has Josh Halls long road back Dumatrait's promotion and that's about it.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #30
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    Re: Does Baseball America really have a clue?

    It has not been good the last couple of years but they have produced Dunn, WMP, Kearns, EE. There is not much difference from farm system 16 to 30. Team 16 will produce major league players and Team 30 will produce major league players.


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