Does Baseball America really have a clue?

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Players to make an impact from past drafts:

1998 (best draft ever): #1-Kearns, #2-Dunn, #12-Koronka (Texas, initially traded to A's), #17-Ryan (Toronto, traded to Balimore for Jaun Guzman), #41-Coffey.......Josh Hall (#7) still in system. grade: A+

1999: #2-Broussard (Cleveland-traded for Branyan)....only player left in Reds system is Brad Salmon (AA). grade: D-

2000: Zilch. #1-Espinosa and #1B-Mosely traded to DET and ANA repectively.....only players left in system are #2-Sardinha, who should be polishing up his resume soon, and #10-"Noochie" Varner. grade: D-

2001: Zilch. Punted #1-Sowers. Ooooh, sneaky. Only players left in system are #4-Kelly (AA), #18-Bannon (AA), #20-Guiterrez (AAA), and #32-Shafer. grade: D- (would be an F, if not for potential of future closer/set-up man, Shafer)

2002: Decent. #1-Chris (Tom Terrific) Gruler, a nice waste of 2.5 M on a HS arm. #1B-Mark Schramek, a pathetic signability pick that would have been available 5-8 rounds later has flamed out. Still hope for #2-Votto and #19-Denorifia has been a pleasant mid-round surprise. #4-Vazquez, and #39-Medlock are two decent prospects still floating around the system. A few others left, but nothing special. #23-Nick Markakis (D & F) never signed and now one of the top prospects in Oriole system. grade: too early to tell, but right now I give it a C- and I think I'm being generous.

2003: #1-Ryan Wagner is just waiting to get out of the system to put together a Jenks/Turnbow-like resurrection. So far, he's been a bust, but in fairness he was probably rushed - just like the other 1st rd pick Chad Cordero (Wash), but apparently didn't have the stomach for the rush job like "Chief" had. #2-Pauly and #6-Gardner both showed promise before typical organizational injuries. Still hope for: #7-Guevara (AA), #11-Hendley (Hi-A), and possibly #16-Dickerson (AA). grade: too early to tell, but right now C- and possibly worse for not protecting their investments.

2004: #1-Bailey is the top prospect in the system. The only potential prospects are #2-Syzmanski (Lo-A), #5-Janish (Hi-A), #7-Valliquette (Lo-A), #10-Young (Lo-A), and maybe #12-Strait, and #13-Anderson. #3-Tatum has been a bust and may be unemployed soon like the other overvalued draft-day catcher - Sardinha. grade: again too soon to tell, but potential with Bailey and afew others to be a decent draft. B

2005: #1-Bruce and #2-Wood are a great foundation, with potential prospects in #3-Ward, #4-LeCure, #9-Loo, #12-Rosales, #14-Griffin, and a few other D & F's. Too soon to tell, but quite possibly the best draft since 1998. grade: Right now - A. I'm feeling warm and fuzzy with this one for some reason. We'll see.

2006: Stubbs a decent pick. We'll see with the rest. grade: INC.

[Doc. Scott]

If a player like Travis Chick developed into a solid major league pitcher, would the Reds get credit for his development?

That's a judgment call. Chick has already been in three different nests- Florida, San Diego, and now Cincinnati. Given his raw stage of evolution, though, I'd give the Reds credit for it if they can get him to the majors with some effective offspeed stuff. Especially if he manages to stay a starter.

[oregonred]

This is why the Krivsky theft of Brandon Phillips and the gutsy trade for Arroyo has been an enormous boon -- way beyond enormous. Coffey's emergence has been another huge boost.

In the past year the Reds have added to their big league roster four valuable (and cheap) impact components (1 starter, an emerging closer and two valuable commodities in the IF (Phillips, Arroyo, Coffey and EdE). Add in Lopez's emergence from 2005 and we've got an enviable and impact trio manning 2B/SS/3B for the foreseeable future

Since spring training -- Krivsky acquiring an above average rotation piece at a way below market contract and an exciting MI with a very high ceiling were two huge shots in the arm for an organization seemingly void of near term prospects. We can't understate how important both of those moves were for the fortunes of the franchise over the next few years.

Now for the next 2-3 years you've got something actually exciting at the MLB level to build upon -- all at well below market cost.

2 above average starters: Harang and Arroyo
Lopez
EdE
Phillips
Kearns
Dunn (not cheap, but young)
Coffey
Freel

[edabbs44]

I think what Paul is getting to is BA's list or ranking does not give an indication of how well the MLB club will do. And to an extent he is correct. However, I would assume that BA does not profess that their ranking would give an indication of the success or otherwise of the MLB club. I just think that sometimes you can look too much at the lower levels for a club to be a success in the future without looking at what it can do now. You look at the perennial top farm clubs like the Dodgers and Brewers but that doesn't always lead to success. As with all things in baseball there needs to be a balance.

And also, projecting prospects is an inexact science. Look at Phillips...very highly rated in the minors and then flamed out in Cleveland. Change of scenery and the guy has a shot at being an all-star. So people could have mocked BA for his lofty rankings, but obviously they knew something.