Isolated Discipline and Prospect Evaluation

[Outshined_One]

Bryan Smith at Baseballanalysts.com did an article last month on 19 year olds playing in the MWL since 2002. The average statline of all of them is .265/.334/.391. Jay currently has a line of .282/.335/.551. Which puts him ahead of the average 19 year old in the MWL in all categories and especially in slugging, where he is ahead by .160. ( you can read the entire article here )

Fascinating article. I'm a bit skeptical due to the sample size and a few other factors, but it is food for thought. Some of the comments are also rather interesting.

As for his strikeouts and walks, I am not so worried. Kearns for examples walked 50 times and struck out 120 times as a 19 year old. As a 20 year old, he struck out 93 times and walked 90. He was the first guy I looked at and well that is where I stopped looking, but all I was looking for was an example of what can happen from season 1 to season 2 of minor league baseball and well there we go.

He was also repeating Low A as a 20 year old. I think that is rather important in terms of looking at that kind of a progression.

Comparisons to Harvey and Dopirak are poor in my opinion. Both were older than Bruce, while in the same league as Bruce. They had more time in the minors, more instruction etc.

Fair point that I will happily concede.

My last post had a lot more than this, but I lost it all, so this is what I am leaving now. It covers most of my last post, just in a shorter, abbreviated version.

Thanks for the compliments and good discussion. Most other boards out there have not been ideal for this kind of thing.