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Thread: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

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  1. #1
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    Most of you remember the situation. In 1999, the Reds were contending and in desperate need of an upgrade for their rotation. They traded prospects B.J. Ryan and Jacobo Sequea to Baltimore for Juan Guzman. The Reds new starter went 6-3, with a 3.03 ERA in 12 starts. The Reds went right down to the wire and ended up tied for first in the wild card race. (Memory seems to fail me after that) So, that was the last real hurrah for the team from Cincy.

    Guzman signed after the season with the d-Rays, pitched a few games, and then was out of baseball with arm miseries. I'm not sure what happened to Sequea, though he might be in the National's system. Ryan has become a lights out closer for the Blue Jays.

    Here are Ryan's stats:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...?playerId=4133

    Did the Reds make a mistake in 1999? Would you do the same type of trade today?

    Notice, the Orioles really had Ryan for his growing pain years and two very good seasons. He priced himself out of that town when he became a free agent. Would Cincy have had the same problem?
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  2. #2
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    Re: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    You still do the deal. Guzman was very good down the stretch and the Reds finished tied for the wildcard.
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

  3. #3
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    While I would absolutely love to have Ryan back in the fold, I don't think you can really regret any trade which funtionally put you in the playoffs.

    If you're asking if I'd trade a promising AA closer for a starter that would put us in the playoffs, the answer is yes. We had no way of knowing Ryan would turn in to the absolute monster he's become and we had Williamson and Graves both throwing great in the pen.

    If we're in the hunt and we can trade say Ryan Wagner for a proven vet starter for the stretch run, I'd do it.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #4
    Member 15fan's Avatar
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    Re: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    Yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes and yes

    The mulligans that I'd want are O'Neill for Kelly, Wetteland for Dave Martinez +, and Konerko (instead of Casey or Young) for Cameron.

    The biggest deal that didn't get done but absolutely should have been done was dealing some combination of Graves/Casey/Boone + minor league arms (Basham? Howington? Moseley? Pauly?) to the Phils when Rolen was on the table.

    Not trading Dmitri Young for Ramiro Mendoza still irks me...though admittedly Mendoza's career went down the tubes pretty quickly thereafter.

  5. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    I agree on Rolen, 15. But I think the problem was money, not prospects. The Phillies weren't willing to gaurantee a negotiation window for a long term deal and ownership was unwilling to take the risk that he'd demand too much or wouldn't sign at all.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #6
    Member 15fan's Avatar
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    Re: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick
    I agree on Rolen, 15. But I think the problem was money, not prospects. The Phillies weren't willing to gaurantee a negotiation window for a long term deal and ownership was unwilling to take the risk that he'd demand too much or wouldn't sign at all.
    I woulda dealt for Rolen and wouldn't have cared whether there was a contract extension in place. If Rolen would have signed with the Reds, great.

    (After all, he was looking for a home in the midwest, and with Casey/Boone/Graves off the payroll, there woulda been plenty of jack to ink Rolen longterm.)

    Had he walked at the end of the season, there woulda been 2 comp picks in the subsequent draft. And if he signed with St. Loo after finishing the season in Cincy, the comp picks would have come at the Cards expense.

    It was win win. As it turns out, Rolen went to St. Loo, and the Reds got stuck with guys who were overpaid for their on the field performance. That's lose lose.

  7. #7
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    Quote Originally Posted by 15fan

    (After all, he was looking for a home in the midwest, and with Casey/Boone/Graves off the payroll, there woulda been plenty of jack to ink Rolen longterm.)
    Wait, why would these guys have been off the payroll? They were not the players in the Reds' offer.

    Bowden also is quoted repeating a statement he made on his radio program on July 31, the day of the trading deadline, that the Phillies preferred the Reds' offer for Rolen to that of the Cardinals. The newspaper also reports that the Reds' offer included infielder Brandon Larson, reliever Scott Williamson and second baseman Todd Walker.
    This is from a Cincinnati Post article. I never once read about the Reds making an offer of Casey, Graves, and Boone. They were hoping to contend by acquiring Rolen. With Rolen at third, Boone was going to move to second. The hope was to solidify their line-up, not to strip it.
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  8. #8
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    Yes, a reliever for a starter? YES YES YES
    Go Gators!

  9. #9
    You know his story Redsland's Avatar
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    Re: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    B.J. Ryan for October and cash?

    Heck yes.
    Makes all the routine posts.

  10. #10
    Puffy 3:16 Puffy's Avatar
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    Re: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    I would do it again in a heartbeat.
    "I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
    - - Rowdy Roddy Piper

    "It takes a big man to admit when he is wrong. I am not a big man"
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    Re: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    I would trade Ryan for Guzman, and I'd trade Guzman for Ryan.

    keep on truckin'

  12. #12
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    I would trade Ryan for Guzman, and I'd trade Guzman for Ryan.

    keep on truckin'
    I get it. There is a message hidden here.

    Truckin, got my chips cashed in. Keep truckin', like the do-dah man
    Together, more or less in line, just keep truckin' on.

    Arrows of neon and flashing marquees out on Main Street.
    Chicago, New York, Detroit and its all on the same street.
    Your typical city involved in a typical daydream
    Hang it up and see what tomorrow brings.


    I've tried playing the song backwards and only got something that sounded like "cranberry sauce".

    Anyway, I don't know about Detroit or New York, but the Chicago Cubs have Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry. I'd package Ryan Wagner for both of those guys. I think the Reds need to solidify the bullpen before they add another starter.
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  13. #13
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    Quote Originally Posted by Spitball
    I've tried playing the song backwards and only got something that sounded like "cranberry sauce".
    No, that was "I buried Paul".

    It's about
    the ball,
    the bat,
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    and the fans

  14. #14
    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker
    No, that was "I buried Paul".
    Maybe...but it sounds more like "I buried Jerry".
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  15. #15
    Member ochre's Avatar
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    Re: In retrospect, would you do a Ryan for a Guzman again??

    Compare this one to the fleecing of the expos Cleveland accomplished a few years back. I would do it again. I think les'pos got took though.
    4009




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