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Thread: Did I hear that right?

  1. #1
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    Did I hear that right?

    Did Chris Welsh call Beltran's HR with nobody on and nobody out in the bottom of the ninth a rally killer?

    What Rally?

    I find it hard to believe that Arroyo would rather give up a homer than a single in that situation.

    Am I crazy?
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  3. #2
    Who, What, Where, When? Tornon's Avatar
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    Re: Did I hear that right?

    Just kind of referring to the fact that the run does not matter at all, a single and a homer there are the same thing gamewise and with the homerun Arroyo still gets to pitch out of the windup

  4. #3
    Member CTA513's Avatar
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    Re: Did I hear that right?

    Quote Originally Posted by Aceking
    Did Chris Welsh call Beltran's HR with nobody on and nobody out in the bottom of the ninth a rally killer?

    What Rally?

    I find it hard to believe that Arroyo would rather give up a homer than a single in that situation.

    Am I crazy?
    He threw him a meatball.
    If it was a 2-1 game he wouldnt have thrown that pitch to Beltran.

  5. #4
    Member jimbo's Avatar
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    Re: Did I hear that right?

    Give up a single and then a home run.....suddenly it's a one run game. The Mets needed runners, a solo home run doesn't quite mean as much.

  6. #5
    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Re: Did I hear that right?

    Welsh: "Sometimes a solo homerun can be a rally killer". I took it to mean that sometimes that can't get a rally going after a solo homerun.

    I do find it weird that Welsh has seemed to dwell on this philosophy this season, especially since I don't ever remember him say it in previous seasons.
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  7. #6
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    Re: Did I hear that right?

    I remember Welch saying that in the past, and in a way I agree with that.

  8. #7
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Did I hear that right?

    That's one of the dumber things I've heard a baseball announcer say. Let's see, you can have no one on, no one out and be down 4-1, or the same situation and down 4-2. I know which one I would take 100% of the time.

    The only possible argument is that the homer somehow makes the following hitters less likely to do anything, but that's pretty flimsy. Maybe in the case of a guy who struggles pitching from the stretch.
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  9. #8
    Member CrackerJack's Avatar
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    Re: Did I hear that right?

    It's always nice to avoid an out and get on base, but i'm never going to complain about a solo HR in any situation.

  10. #9
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    Re: Did I hear that right?

    It's a nonsense, indefensible "theory" posited by Welsch. You only trade runs for outs, in the worst of circumstances.

  11. #10
    Member jimbo's Avatar
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    Re: Did I hear that right?

    The Arizona Diamondback manager consider solo home runs "rally killers." I'm not going to go so far as the categorize all solo homers as such, but when I'm down by 3 runs in the 9th inning.....I want baserunners.

  12. #11
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Did I hear that right?

    OK, I'm going to share this little tidbit of information, and it surprised me. Maybe there's something to the "make him pitch out of the stretch" argument. I looked at the Win Expectancy finder over at www.walkoffbalk.com and plugged in tonight's situations. (Keep in mind this is based on the sum of all such situations that occurred in MLB from 2000-2004. It does not adjust for the specific players, teams or park involved.)

    Home team down 4-1, bottom 9, none on, none out (i.e. before Beltran's plate appearance). Chance of Mets winning: 3.3%

    Home team down 4-2, bottom 9, none on, none out (after Beltran's homer). Chance of Mets winning: 8.2%

    Home team down 4-1, bottom 9, runner on first, none out (if Beltran had walked or singled instead). Chance of Mets winning: 9.6%

    It doesn't make intuitive sense, and it's not much of a difference, but there it is.
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  13. #12
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    Re: Did I hear that right?

    I've heard Welsch use that line in the past as well. I don't think he was saying he would rather be down 4-2 than 4-1.

    His point is simply a question. How often does a 3 run rally start with a solo HR. Think of all the 3 run comebacks you have witness in the 9th inning. How many of those began by the team hitting a solo jack?

    Now think of all those 3 run comebacks you have seen. How many started off with a seeing eye single, or a Texas leaguer? Then what came next? Chances are, one of two things. Either the pitcher made a mistake due to his attention being taken up by the baserunner or the hitter stroked one thru the infield, right where the first basemen would of been if not for the guy on first base. Then you get the 3 run homer. I've seen countless comebacks like that.

    So I don't think Welsch is being crazy and I think some of you are taking his philosophy a little too far. He is always careful to say, "SOMETIMES," when talking about it and I think he is dead on. Of course, if asked, you'd rather take the runner on first instead of the HR but when you think about it, as Welsch explains, it makes some sense.

    One thing should be made clear and I am sure Chris would say the same thing, the best rally killer is getting the first 3 guys who come to the plate, out. Its just that when you look back and think of all those rallies, more start with singles than they do with homers which makes it a darn good observation by the crafty lefthander.

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    Re: Did I hear that right?

    My partner knows the game well. Its the truth if you think about. That run means nothing and to get the inning going they needed baserunners.
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    Re: Did I hear that right?

    What's up George....

  16. #15
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Did I hear that right?

    Nonsense. You need RUNS. Baserunners help you get runs, but you still have to work for them; homers are much more efficient.
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