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Thread: Tidbits...

  1. #1
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Tidbits...

    Reds record Monday thru Friday: 33-19, .635

    Reds record on the weekend: 7-16, .304

    Where's the pop?
    This offense has scored fewer than 3 runs 20 times this year! 1-19 record
    When this team homers they are 32-19
    When this team does not homer they are 8-16

    Freel Factor
    When Ryan Freel starts this team is 29-20 .591
    When Ryan Freel does not start this team is 11-15 .423

    Catch this!
    When Jason LaRue starts this team is 17-11 .607
    When David Ross starts this team is 15-13 .535

    Who's on first?
    When Rich Aurilia starts at 1B they are 12-6
    When Hatteberg starts at 1B they are 28-27
    When Adam Dunn starts at 1B they are 0-2

    Center of attention
    When Ken Griffey Jr starts in CF they are 21-22
    When Ryan Free starts in CF they are 16-11
    When anyone other than Jr starts in CF they are 19-13

    Moneyball this
    Ken Griffey Jr's on base percentage is .315, lowest of career

    Where's the pipeline?
    The Reds have 23 pitchers on their 40-man roster, only two were drafted by Jim Bowden...Todd Coffey and Ryan Wagner. Only 3 total came from within the system including Chris Hammond.


    Adam Dunn numbers

    Current ML rank for Adam Dunn
    43 rbi's......57th
    .364 OBP......61st
    .901 OPS......38th
    On pace for 95 rbi's......last year 33 players had more than 95 rbi's
    Runners on .178
    Runners on, two outs .133
    Runners in scoring position .150
    Runners in scoring position with 2 outs .160
    After count gets to 0-2 against him: 1 for 40
    vs RHP batting . 195
    vs LHP batting .289
    Since May 1st.....35 for 175 (.200).......26 rbi, 34 walks, 50 k's

    How many players are on pace to have their batting average, on base %, slugging and OPS drop for the third straight year?
    Drops, by year, from 2004 to now:
    Average: .266, .247, .223
    OBP: .388, .387, .364
    SLG: .569, .540, .539
    OPS: .957, .927, .903

    Runners in scoring position since 2003 .214 in 425 ab's






    Per Lance

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  3. #2
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Tidbits...

    interesting.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  4. #3
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    Re: Tidbits...

    Can anyone tell me how many RBI'S Dunn has this year on NON-HR's--- I'm doing a little something but not smart enough to find this answer. Thanks

  5. #4
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Tidbits...

    On pace....... the what if aspect of baseball.

    So many factors..

    Ask Reggie Jackson about on pace in 1969.

  6. #5
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Tidbits...

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin
    Can anyone tell me how many RBI'S Dunn has this year on NON-HR's--- I'm doing a little something but not smart enough to find this answer. Thanks

    you'd have to go through his game logs. A better question would be, why does it matter? Don't RBI from HR's count? Are RBI from singles somehow magically better? Dunn is playing poorly right now and he is still leading the team in RBI and runs scored, and yet a lot of folks don't want to acknowledge that fact because they don't how he's doing it.
    Last edited by pedro; 06-25-2006 at 12:58 PM.
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  7. #6
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    Re: Tidbits...

    I'm not saying that RBI's from HR's are less essential than non HR's-- not at all. Just curious to see what the number is.

    My point is that I think the two schools of thought on Dunn are BOTH wrong. I don't view him as a Dave Kingman and I don't view him as great young player either.

    I love his OPS-- I think it's very important and the fact that he K's at such a high rate really doesn't bother me because he walks so often.

    What does bother me is his numbers w/ RISP-- I know we've been down this road before, but I'm sorry, those numbers are a bit shocking.

    It just seems to me that a guy that has the talent to belt 23 HR's so far should be finding ways to drive in more runs overall.

    I still think Dunn is a well above average player w/ a celiling somewhere around "very good." But I don't see "greatness" or anything elite in him, and that's why he is NOT an untouchable when it comes to the trading block, IMO.

  8. #7
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    Re: Tidbits...

    Further.........

    With Dunn's RBI's coming seemingly at totally random times (doesn't seem to matter if he has runners on or not), I'd put him in the lead-of spot and leave him there. I know this would raise eyebrows, but here is my ideal line-up:

    Dunn 1B
    Freel CF
    Kearns RF
    Junior LF
    Edwin 3B
    Phillips 2B
    Lopez SS
    Ross C

  9. #8
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Tidbits...

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin
    I'm not saying that RBI's from HR's are less essential than non HR's-- not at all. Just curious to see what the number is.

    My point is that I think the two schools of thought on Dunn are BOTH wrong. I don't view him as a Dave Kingman and I don't view him as great young player either.

    I love his OPS-- I think it's very important and the fact that he K's at such a high rate really doesn't bother me because he walks so often.

    What does bother me is his numbers w/ RISP-- I know we've been down this road before, but I'm sorry, those numbers are a bit shocking.

    It just seems to me that a guy that has the talent to belt 23 HR's so far should be finding ways to drive in more runs overall.

    I still think Dunn is a well above average player w/ a celiling somewhere around "very good." But I don't see "greatness" or anything elite in him, and that's why he is NOT an untouchable when it comes to the trading block, IMO.
    They are this year, but not for his career. But you also have to realize that the difference in between him hitting what he's hitting with RISP and hitting his career average is about 6 hits, which really isn't that many. I've seen him smoke several balls with RISP that ended up being outs, with just a little more luck those numbers would be quite different owing to the small percentage of AB's that actually occur with RISP.

    The number that is shocking to me is Dunn's incredibly low BAPIP with to me suggest that he is having a lot of bad luck (in addition to hitting a lot of weak GB's to 1B lately)
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  10. #9
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    Re: Tidbits...

    We touched on this in the Hatteberg thread, but Dunn's plate approach seems totally inconsistent lately. Sometimes he looks poised and patient, then he looks absolutely baffled and goes down softly. Is he just guessing? It's not working for him very well right now.

  11. #10
    Member kheidg-'s Avatar
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    Re: Tidbits...

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw
    Catch this!
    When Jason LaRue starts this team is 17-11 .607
    When David Ross starts this team is 15-13 .535
    This is what I found most interesting. I thought the club was doing much better with Ross starting, at least considering that most of his wins came with Arroyo pitching.

  12. #11
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Tidbits...

    What does bother me is his numbers w/ RISP-- I know we've been down this road before, but I'm sorry, those numbers are a bit shocking.
    Reggie Jackson RISP 1970-1972

    .259/.403/.446
    .198/.299/.306
    .325/.447/.575

    Harmon Killebrew RISP 1959-1961

    .254/.375/.574
    .214/.345/.357
    .321/.427/.650

    Mike Schmidt RISP 1976-1980

    .287/.398/.556
    .232/.400/.448
    .219/.375/.438
    .230/.387/.466
    .284/.374/.676

    Adam Dunn Career (pre 2006)

    .218/.424/.467

    Dunn in 2006 (23% of total ab's)

    .150/.369/.517

    Looks like the batting average is dragging him down this year (in all aspects of his approach, RISP, no one on)

    With 60 RISP at bats in 2006 representing exactly 2.3% of his at bats in his career I'm of the mind to maybe wait this out before I get worried, and from what I can see in the search of the types of players that most resemble Dunn I wouldn't be surprised if he has a bad year in that situation all year.

  13. #12
    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: Tidbits...

    I think ultimately, peoples satisfaction with Dunn will always be in direct proportion to their attachment to BA.

  14. #13
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Tidbits...

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro
    you'd have to go through his game logs. A better question would be, why does it matter? Don't RBI from HR's count? Are RBI from singles somehow magically better? Dunn is playing poorly right now and he is still leading the team in RBI and runs scored, and yet a lot of folks don't want to acknowledge that fact because they don't how he's doing it.
    I think it has more to do with consistency. You can have a team score 10 runs per game in 81 games and get shutout in the other 81. The team will be no better than 81-81 and probably worse. But they would still rank pretty high in the runs standings.

    I think the stat was given a few weeks ago where 74% of Dunn's RBI were generated by HRs.

  15. #14
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Tidbits...

    Lance.. Miss you on my drive home! Good stuff though.. Thanks Matt!

    Dunn has been just looking flat out UGLY! Seems only hits he's getting are homers or balls hitting the catchers mit for strike 3. This is going to sound far far fetched but would a trip to Louisville be out of the question? I'm not trying to be a Dunn basher... but a guy who signs a huge contract and putts up a .220 average with 24 bombs and a handfull more RBI's is sad.. Not from a Homerun aspect but from a all around baseball aspect. With the stats mentioned above he doesn't hit for average, he doesn't work counts, he strikesout a lot, and he fails to do the little things like moving runners along or sac flies. Dunn needs to spread out that "Raw" talent and hit the ball to all fields, and hit for average. The HR's will be come.

  16. #15
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Tidbits...

    If we're sending him down for production then half the team needs to go as well.
    Go Gators!


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