Best kept secret in the minor leagues

[baseball_chick]

Hey there, I have been a fan of this forum for quite some time now. After 2 years of secretly reading the posts, I finally got the balls to post something. That being said, I would like to offer my oppinion on the best kept secret in the Reds minor league system. His name is Tom Shearn, and while at the age of 28 he is no spring chicken or a top prospect like Homer Bailey. His numbers are outstanding and can not be ignored. He is a very versatile pitcher who can start and relieve at the drop of a hat and does a good job in both roles. I don't need to go on and on. I think his numbers speak for themself along with this article that was posted in the Louisville newspaper a couple of days ago.

W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO
5 2 2.63 19 7 51.1 45 19 15 5 21 38
http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/...73249234232616

[Red Leader]

Thanks for the post, baseball chick. Don't be a stranger. I've seen Shearn's numbers in the past and have wondered if he'd be a logical person to bring up to the big leagues. His numbers have always been average or above average. It'd be nice to see him get a chance at least.

[WrongVerb]

Shearn is a good example, IMO, of a AAAA player. Someone who can play decently enough to fill a roster spot on a AAA club, but realistically would get killed in the bigs.

I'm no expert, like some folks on here, but when I try to project a minor leaguer, there are 2 things I look at first. First is their WHIP. A WHIP 1.1 or lower is really what you want to see. Shearn's is about 1.4. Second, I look at K/BB ratio. This gives a good indication of a pitcher's dominance (i.e. how good his stuff is and how good his control is). You want to see a 3.5:1 or better ratio. Shearn's is about 1.8:1.

Contrast that with Bailey's #s: 1.0 WHIP and 3.8:1 K/BB ratio.

My feeling (and probably the feeling of those in the decision making positions within the organization) is that Shearn would not experience success in the bigs.

[oneupper]

Shearn is a good example, IMO, of a AAAA player. Someone who can play decently enough to fill a roster spot on a AAA club, but realistically would get killed in the bigs.

I'm no expert, like some folks on here, but when I try to project a minor leaguer, there are 2 things I look at first. First is their WHIP. A WHIP 1.1 or lower is really what you want to see. Shearn's is about 1.4. Second, I look at K/BB ratio. This gives a good indication of a pitcher's dominance (i.e. how good his stuff is and how good his control is). You want to see a 3.5:1 or better ratio. Shearn's is about 1.8:1.

Contrast that with Bailey's #s: 1.0 WHIP and 3.8:1 K/BB ratio.

My feeling (and probably the feeling of those in the decision making positions within the organization) is that Shearn would not experience success in the bigs.

I won't argue your statistical analysis, because you're probably right. But IMO, there is a different reason why these OLDER (27-30 something) guys never get a shot at the bigs. It has to with money and control.

Someone will correct me, but once a player becomes a free agent (minor or major league), you can't ''control'' them again. (meaning 3 yrs low salary + 3 yrs arbitration). From his age, I'll assume Shearn is already a minor league free agent (or close to it). So if you bring him up, he performs, you can't even be sure to be able to retain him for next year.

Teams will prefer to use players under their control. So you will get guys like Shearn (or Aaron Holbert, Andy Abad)...etc, who may have developed slowly or never got a shot at their time. They may be better than some guys on a number of ML rosters, but they won't get a shot. Teams will prefer a ''proven'' (even if proven lousy) ML player than a minor leaguer who may or may not be good.

It's shame, if you ask me...but it's how the system works.

[baseball_chick]

First is their WHIP. A WHIP 1.1 or lower is really what you want to see. Shearn's is about 1.4. Second, I look at K/BB ratio. This gives a good indication of a pitcher's dominance (i.e. how good his stuff is and how good his control is). You want to see a 3.5:1 or better ratio. Shearn's is about 1.8:1.
My feeling (and probably the feeling of those in the decision making positions within the organization) is that Shearn would not experience success in the bigs.[/QUOTE]

Ok, good feedback there. BUT I have a few call outs.
1. Shearn's WHIP is currently 1.29 and has been dropping lately
2. Burn's has a .94 WHIP and a 5.6:1 K/BB and gets smoked in the bigs, so I don't see how that is a good indicator.
and 3. how many strike outs you have is also not an indicator of big league success. They look at overall pitch count and would rather see them get the ball down in the strike zone for ground outs and pop outs. It doesn't do a pitcher any good to have a butt load of strike outs when they are pitching the count full and end up with a 15+ total pitch count inning.

sorry to be so long winded, just passionate about baseball.

[gonelong]

Don't be a stranger, we could use a few more baseball chicks around here.

GL

[Doc. Scott]

Well, branding Shearn an AAAA player would be defensible... if Shearn had ever appeared in the big leagues. He got injured and missed an entire year while in the Astros organization right as he was in line for a chance.

But Oneupper is pretty much right- if you're a minor-league vet and you manage to get that chance, someone's really got to take a shine to you to get you that 40-man roster spot and relative security. Guys like Ryan Freel who were able to go from 6YRFA status to multi-year contract are extremely rare.

[JaxRed]

"Someone will correct me, but once a player becomes a free agent (minor or major league), you can't ''control'' them again. (meaning 3 yrs low salary + 3 yrs arbitration). From his age, I'll assume Shearn is already a minor league free agent (or close to it). So if you bring him up, he performs, you can't even be sure to be able to retain him for next year."

Incorrect. A minor league FA, starts from ground zero for Arbitration if he makes the major leagues (assuming it's his first time)

[Red Leader]

Incorrect. A minor league FA, starts from ground zero for Arbitration if he makes the major leagues (assuming it's his first time)

Which is why Ryan Freel was heading into his arbitration years before signing a LTC with the Reds...

[baseball_chick]

[QUOTE=JaxRed]"Someone will correct me, but once a player becomes a free agent (minor or major league), you can't ''control'' them again. (meaning 3 yrs low salary + 3 yrs arbitration). So if you bring him up, he performs, you can't even be sure to be able to retain him for next year."

The Reds can control anyone if they are on the 40 man roster, which is what would have to happen in order for Tom to get a call up. His FA contract would be purchased by the Reds and they would own him. Unless they decided to DFA him.

[oneupper]

"Someone will correct me, but once a player becomes a free agent (minor or major league), you can't ''control'' them again. (meaning 3 yrs low salary + 3 yrs arbitration). From his age, I'll assume Shearn is already a minor league free agent (or close to it). So if you bring him up, he performs, you can't even be sure to be able to retain him for next year."

Incorrect. A minor league FA, starts from ground zero for Arbitration if he makes the major leagues (assuming it's his first time)

Thanks for the elaboration/correction. What happens with a guy who's been up and down (like Dewayne Wise)?

And how many years does it take for a minor leaguer to opt for FA?

[JaxRed]

It's still base on total years of Major League service. 3 years for arb and 6 years for FA. And they add your "days of service" to figure your "years of service"

[oneupper]

It's still base on total years of Major League service. 3 years for arb and 6 years for FA. And they add your "days of service" to figure your "years of service"

Sorry to pry, but its good information. Days of Service = ? (Days on 40 man, Days on 25 man?, DL? does it count, or not)...
And minor leaguers, when do they get their freedom? Also in 6 years?
I know there's some rule if they are aren't on a 40 man roster by a certain date.

Guys like Gruler, Gardner, etc...do their injuries ''stop the clock"?, cause it doesn't seem to make sense to put money into their rehabs, etc..if they're gonna walk.

Thanks...

[JaxRed]

Only thing that counts for major league service time is time on the 25/15/60 rosters. Guys like Gruler and Gardner were never on the 40 man roster let alone the 25/15/60. So they have 0 days of major league service.

Minor leaguers get their freedom after 6 years of minor league time. So Gruler will have 5 years of minor league time after this season. He'll be a minor league FA after next season unless he gets added to the 40 man roster. His minor league DL time doesn't affect it.

There are some other ways, like if you get outrighted off the 40 man roster a couple times, but that's the main situation.

[Tom B]

So what is the likely hood of Shearn getting called up then?
Tom Shearn and I actually grew up together and played HS baseball together, but I dont see or talk to him much during the season obviously. I have been tracking his sucess lately and Iam wondering with the recent blunders of the Reds bullpen, why not give Tom a shot in the bullpen?