Can Adam Bomb Foster's HR Record?

[Guacarock]

With his dramatic, 9th inning, walk-off grand slam against Cleveland on Friday night, Adam Dunn collected his 26th homerun of the season. That puts him precisely on pace to wallop 52 homeruns in '06, matching the Reds' seasonal HR record set by George Foster 29 years ago in 1977. Will Dunn keep at it? Can he match or break Foster's record?

He certainly has a fighting chance. Dunn ended '04 with 46 home runs, and collected 40 last season. In both years, he did just as well the second-half of the season as the first half.

Last year, he hit 20 home runs from April-June and 20 more from July-October. His '04 stats were also remarkably consistent -- 23 HR from April-June and 23 HR from July-October.

Barring an injury, we could be looking at Reds history in the making. And even if the Foster record doesn't fall, the chase is going to keep this summer exciting, whether or not the team can sustain its playoff hopes.

Besides savoring Dunn's individual feats, we also ought to be celebrating just how special our current outfield is as an offensive unit. We've now played 81 games or half the season. All three of our outfielders are on pace to hit 30 home runs. To give you an idea of just how amazing that is, no Reds outfield since the beginning of the franchise has ever boasted three guys who all hit 30 home runs in the same season.

We came tantalizingly close in 1956, when Frank Robinson whacked 38, Wally Post 36 and Gus Bell fell just short of the mark with 29 home runs. The three combined for 113 dingers.

By comparison, our '06 Reds outfielders Dunn, Griffey and Kearns have 58 home runs at the halfway mark, meaning they'll hit 116 if the second half goes as well for them as the first half.

None of us can predict what is yet to come. But based on what we've seen so far in '06, we have more reason to rejoice than to carp. Enjoy the moment. Seasons like this don't come around every decade, not even every quarter-century or more.

[OnBaseMachine]

I this may be the year he finally reaches 50. I'm not sure about 52 - I hope he does and everything - but I would be very pleased if he can "just" reach the 50 home run plateau. That itself would break the Reds franchise record for most homers by a left-handed hitter set by Ted Kluszewski with 49 homers in 1954.

Another franchise record he could break or come close to breaking is Joe Morgan's single season walk record. Morgan walked 132 times in 1975, Dunn is second with 128 in 2002. Adam currently has 64 walks and is on pace for 128 but a couple of two walk games could put him right on track to break the record.

One other thing to keep an eye on: Dunn is one of only two Reds players in Reds franchise history to score 100+ runs, drive in 100+ runs, and walk 100+ times in a season. Joe Morgan is the other player. Only Dunn has accomplished this feat in two consecutive seasons, and watch out because is on pace to do it for the third straight year.

[KronoRed]

He stays in the 2 spot or 3 in front of JR I think he shatters the HR and walk record.

[Deepred05]

He stays in the 2 spot or 3 in front of JR I think he shatters the HR and walk record.

I agree. If Griffey stays healthy he gets the record.

[Johnny Footstool]

Dunn will break Foster's record. Just pick the year -- 2006, 2007, 2008. Maybe all three.

[macro]

This probably won't be a popular opinion, but I'm rooting for Foster's record to stand, because of the era and the ballparks he accomplished his 52 in. Home runs are a dime a dozen these days. They weren't in 1977.

[M2]

Dunn will break Foster's record. Just pick the year -- 2006, 2007, 2008. Maybe all three.

That's what I was thinking too. Though the real interesting single season homer chase in Dunn's career is likely to be as the first non-juiced guy past Maris.

[crazybob60]

I believe he will break it and break it by a couple of homers....probably around 55 to 56 actually.

[UC_Ken]

This probably won't be a popular opinion, but I'm rooting for Foster's record to stand, because of the era and the ballparks he accomplished his 52 in. Home runs are a dime a dozen these days. They weren't in 1977.

I understand what you mean but you're essentially saying you don't want AD to hit as many home runs as possible. I agree that HR records from pre 1990s have more significance but I'd never want a Red to not hit HRs.

[terminator]

I think he will pass it, primarily because his history tells us there's a good chance that he will raise his batting average 20-30 points overall between now and the end of the season to get to the .250-ish level. For Dunn, more hits means more home runs. Last year he had that monster month (July I think) when he was the NL Player of the Month. We haven't seen that yet this year and that would dramatically escalate his pace toward Foster.

Of course what we would all really like to see is Dunn breaking Foster's RBI record!

[KronoRed]

This probably won't be a popular opinion, but I'm rooting for Foster's record to stand, because of the era and the ballparks he accomplished his 52 in. Home runs are a dime a dozen these days. They weren't in 1977.

So you want him to have more triples and going home on errors instead?

[macro]

I understand what you mean but you're essentially saying you don't want AD to hit as many home runs as possible. I agree that HR records from pre 1990s have more significance but I'd never want a Red to not hit HRs.

Your point is well-taken. My first priority as a Reds fan is to see them win the World Series, and they're going to be much more likely to do it with great pitching than home runs. But hey, if Dunn's 53rd home run of the season puts the Reds in the playoffs, I'll be rootin' for him to do it.

So you want him to have more triples and going home on errors instead?

No, I want him to have more RBI singles and sac flies. Home runs are rally killers.

[goreds2]

This probably won't be a popular opinion, but I'm rooting for Foster's record to stand, because of the era and the ballparks he accomplished his 52 in. Home runs are a dime a dozen these days. They weren't in 1977.

I have great respect for Foster's record and he had a great year but the ball was thought to be juiced in 1977. This is from baseballprospectus.com:

Balanced Era (1977–1985). The 1977 season was marked by a sharp increase in offense as a result of the expansion to 26 clubs and a new manufacturer of baseballs. The offensive improvement brought the game back into balance, and the era is remembered for the wide variety of styles that prospered during the period.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=4845

[RichRed]

I have great respect for Foster's record and he had a great year but the ball was thought to be juiced in 1977. This is from baseballprospectus.com:

Balanced Era (1977–1985). The 1977 season was marked by a sharp increase in offense as a result of the expansion to 26 clubs and a new manufacturer of baseballs. The offensive improvement brought the game back into balance, and the era is remembered for the wide variety of styles that prospered during the period.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=4845

Still, the closest player to Foster's 52 HR's that year was Jeff Burroughs with 41. Just an awesome season by George. And it was another 19 years before anyone matched that 52 mark (McGwire in 1996).

[goreds2]

Still, the closest player to Foster's 52 HR's that year was Jeff Burroughs with 41. Just an awesome season by George.

Yes, I agree it was an awesome season. Marty Brennaman has said it was the best season by a Reds player he has witnessed.