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Thread: Trade deadline may be too late.

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    Member Crosley68's Avatar
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    Trade deadline may be too late.

    I am usually not an alarmist, but the games we will lose in July because of our bullpen may make our position by July 31 difficult to overcome. I realize that there are less sellers at this time of the season, but overpaying is almost certainly needed now. Perhaps overpaying in salary instead of prospects would be more palatable to the ownership.
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    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Trade deadline may be too late.

    Quote Originally Posted by Crosley68
    I am usually not an alarmist, but the games we will lose in July because of our bullpen may make our position by July 31 difficult to overcome. I realize that there are less sellers at this time of the season, but overpaying is almost certainly needed now. Perhaps overpaying in salary instead of prospects would be more palatable to the ownership.
    You've got to be realistic about where the Reds are right now. They're firmly in contention right now, but how many moves do they need to make to get over the hump and into the postseason?

    The bullpen is beyond bad -- it's an outright liability at this point. Aside from Todd Coffey, there's nobody out there that can retire hitters on a consistent basis. That's 5 guys (Belisle, Weathers, Mercker, Shackleford, and Standridge) that are completely unreliable and not a one of which has any place on a contending ballclub. In order to even think about getting into the post season, you're looking at acquiring a minimum of two additional bullpen arms, and then hoping everyone else finds their way to replacement level for the remainder of the season.

    So, right off the bat, you need two quality relief pitchers.

    Then you consider that your rotation, at the moment, is Arroyo, Harang, pray that Ramirez is on his game, pray for rain (Milton), and pray for rain (Mays/Claussen). This team isn't going to compete trotting Milton and Mays out there for back-to-back starts every 5 days -- so, now you're likely looking for one more starting pitcher as well.

    Your needs are now two quality relief pitchers, and one starting pitcher.

    Now, the question is how much value do your players have, who are they valuable to, and how much are you willing to give up for a shot at maybe playing an extra 5 games of baseball in October.

    Griffey has almost zero value -- he's an injury risk, has declining defensive skills, and is saddled with a huge-money deal. Moving him would get the Reds salary space, but I doubt any big league return. Aurillia and Hatteberg both might be useful to a team in contention, but no contender is going to send major league pitching back for either of those two -- most you could hope for is maybe a prospect or two. Kearns might have value, but he's been streaky, he's going to get expensive (read: smaller market teams stay away), and there's not a huge demand for right handed bats right now. Maybe he's worth a bullpen arm and a prospect or two, but certainly he doesn't command the value he once did and doesn't hold the value most around here give him. Dunn has value, but he's also the most productive player in the offense; hard to replace that with Chris Denorfia. LaRue is expensive and holds only middling value at this point, but maybe he's worth an underperforming relief arm.

    My point is thus -- at a certain point, it becomes a battle of diminishing returns. The Reds are forced to give up more than they're getting back, and the end result is still a race to the finish line that they could easily lose. The Reds have lots of holes (all of the type hardest to fill) and not a lot of spare change lying around to pay to fill them with. It might not be popular, but the best move might not be an all-out commitment to the post season this year but, rather, calculated moves that keep the team in contention this year, but set things up nicely for a squad that stays pretty much the same next year, with possibly some young additions like Votto and Bailey.
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    Re: Trade deadline may be too late.

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor
    You've got to be realistic about where the Reds are right now. They're firmly in contention right now, but how many moves do they need to make to get over the hump and into the postseason?

    The bullpen is beyond bad -- it's an outright liability at this point. Aside from Todd Coffey, there's nobody out there that can retire hitters on a consistent basis. That's 5 guys (Belisle, Weathers, Mercker, Shackleford, and Standridge) that are completely unreliable and not a one of which has any place on a contending ballclub. In order to even think about getting into the post season, you're looking at acquiring a minimum of two additional bullpen arms, and then hoping everyone else finds their way to replacement level for the remainder of the season.

    So, right off the bat, you need two quality relief pitchers.

    Then you consider that your rotation, at the moment, is Arroyo, Harang, pray that Ramirez is on his game, pray for rain (Milton), and pray for rain (Mays/Claussen). This team isn't going to compete trotting Milton and Mays out there for back-to-back starts every 5 days -- so, now you're likely looking for one more starting pitcher as well.

    Your needs are now two quality relief pitchers, and one starting pitcher.

    Now, the question is how much value do your players have, who are they valuable to, and how much are you willing to give up for a shot at maybe playing an extra 5 games of baseball in October.

    Griffey has almost zero value -- he's an injury risk, has declining defensive skills, and is saddled with a huge-money deal. Moving him would get the Reds salary space, but I doubt any big league return. Aurillia and Hatteberg both might be useful to a team in contention, but no contender is going to send major league pitching back for either of those two -- most you could hope for is maybe a prospect or two. Kearns might have value, but he's been streaky, he's going to get expensive (read: smaller market teams stay away), and there's not a huge demand for right handed bats right now. Maybe he's worth a bullpen arm and a prospect or two, but certainly he doesn't command the value he once did and doesn't hold the value most around here give him. Dunn has value, but he's also the most productive player in the offense; hard to replace that with Chris Denorfia. LaRue is expensive and holds only middling value at this point, but maybe he's worth an underperforming relief arm.

    My point is thus -- at a certain point, it becomes a battle of diminishing returns. The Reds are forced to give up more than they're getting back, and the end result is still a race to the finish line that they could easily lose. The Reds have lots of holes (all of the type hardest to fill) and not a lot of spare change lying around to pay to fill them with. It might not be popular, but the best move might not be an all-out commitment to the post season this year but, rather, calculated moves that keep the team in contention this year, but set things up nicely for a squad that stays pretty much the same next year, with possibly some young additions like Votto and Bailey.
    well negative Nancy... how bout you just piss in my cherios...

    First of all, Milton kept us in the game to day, and for the most part has pitched mediocorely, which isn't that bad. He's not a bad #4 starter. We need a #3. As for Ramirez in the 5 spot, hes about a 50/50 guy. half the time hes good half the time hes awful. Not look at him relative to the rest of the league, and hes about par. Very few team outside of the white sox have a consistent #5 starter. Most teams throw in prospects like a Reyes or Billingsley (That as much as we like guy like them, arent much better than ramirez at this stage of their career however they will be more consisent) or players just like Ramirez in the 5 spot.

    I think if we can get a closer at the deadline, we move coffey to set up and we are in decent shape. Belisle and stranridge are average relievers imo. They arent gonna save any games but they are serviceable. Weathers and merker have been awful, but very few teams have deep quality bullpens outside their top 4. Shackleford would be fine if we just used him as a loogy and that was it. We need to bring up a Germano or some1 like that as a long reliever or move ramirez to that spot and let some1 else start. Our bullpen is still week but with a closer i think we could survive.

    Griffey isnt going anywhere... get over it. I hate the people even mention him as a trade piece. He is not gonna be dealt anywhere because to get a quality reliever out of him we'll have to pay a large chunk of his salary.

    Our chips are in freel, denorfia, and a Catcher. As much as I dont like it, Kearns is probably in there too.

  5. #4
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Trade deadline may be too late.

    I totally agree, CE.

    If you look at the players that have value--Dunn, Kearns, Griffey, Freel, Lopez, and Phillips, you're hard pressed to see any of them bring the two arms you need to be competitive. The only answer is the minors. Let's hope that Krivsky changes his mind about Homer and others and takes a chance. Otherwise, what you see is what you get.
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    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Trade deadline may be too late.

    Saving their most valuable chips to trade during the offseason, might be the wise move. I believe it could help the club much more in the long run.

    I'll duck and cover now.

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    Re: Trade deadline may be too late.

    Quote Originally Posted by The_jbh
    well negative Nancy... how bout you just piss in my cherios...

    First of all, Milton kept us in the game to day, and for the most part has pitched mediocorely, which isn't that bad. He's not a bad #4 starter. We need a #3. As for Ramirez in the 5 spot, hes about a 50/50 guy. half the time hes good half the time hes awful. Not look at him relative to the rest of the league, and hes about par.
    Wait, wait, wait.

    Half the time he is good half the time he is awful? He has given up more then 3 runs in only 3 of his 12 starts, and has given up more then 4 once. So in 75% of his starts he gives up 3 runs or less, and 91% of his stats he given up less then 4 or less. He has also gone less then 6 innings only 2 out of his 12 starts.

    How is that 50/50?
    Last edited by reds44; 07-03-2006 at 02:31 AM.
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    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Trade deadline may be too late.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden
    Saving their most valuable chips to trade during the offseason, might be the wise move. I believe it could help the club much more in the long run.

    I'll duck and cover now.
    I actually agree with this Ron.

    If it is too late, then it is too late.

    While I don't think this current management will do so... I don't want a rush or panic trade that hurts this team in the long run, just for a short term shot THIS YEAR.

    It may very well be that we will not be able to adequately fix this BP until season's end. If so, then I am fine with that.

    I've enjoyed immensely watching this team this year. Castellini/Krivsky have made some moves that have really helped this team. They also are on record as saying (and realizing) where our currrent problems lie.

    Yes - this BP has been our "Achilles Heel" this year, along with our defense.

    But if one really thinks about it - we could have far worse problems.

    What I mean is that correcting a BP is far easier to address then other issues teams face.

    It's just that it is hard to do so at this stage of the season. It is for any team right now with dire needs.

    I'm just glad to hear the Castellini says we are buyers not sellers. And by sellers I'm referring to seliing off key cogs on this team for a possible shot this year.

    Now is when we find out Krivsky's true mettle - scouring ML, seeing what other teams lack is, do we have something that could fill it, that might be desirable.... and more importantly.... do they have something we need.
    Last edited by GAC; 07-03-2006 at 05:28 AM.
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    Re: Trade deadline may be too late.

    We're fortunate to be two games out of the NL Central and still be leading the wildcard with this bullpen.

    I guarantee Krivsky will do something. A nice package that consists of a lefthanded and righthanded setup men would make us all breathe easier.
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  10. #9
    Puffy's Daddy Red Leader's Avatar
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    Re: Trade deadline may be too late.

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty
    We're fortunate to be two games out of the NL Central and still be leading the wildcard with this bullpen.

    I guarantee Krivsky will do something. A nice package that consists of a lefthanded and righthanded setup men would make us all breathe easier.

    We're 1.0 game out.
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    Re: Trade deadline may be too late.

    We are 1 game out of first, and leading the wildcard, all with a very bad bullpen. teams chasing us all have great deficiencies in their team also. it's not like we are sinking like a rock, with many teams pulling away from us. Quite the opposite.

    There will be few sellers at this time of year, because the majority of NL teams are still in th erace for the wildcard. What management shouldn't do is sacrifice some of our young pitchers who are finally thriving for any kind of quick fix.

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    Re: Trade deadline may be too late.

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig
    We are 1 game out of first, and leading the wildcard, all with a very bad bullpen. teams chasing us all have great deficiencies in their team also. it's not like we are sinking like a rock, with many teams pulling away from us. Quite the opposite.

    There will be few sellers at this time of year, because the majority of NL teams are still in th erace for the wildcard. What management shouldn't do is sacrifice some of our young pitchers who are finally thriving for any kind of quick fix.
    The good news as well....the Cards bp is due for a cosmic crumble after throwing mega innings because of their starters collective collapses.

    The bad news....the Cards have the hutzpah to go out and get Zito or Smoltz, and a bat.


    Two elements that I'm hoping for.

    First, that the AS break does wonders to rest Mercker, Milton, Weathers. I just don't think there's a long list of relievers to be acquired right now....and Claussen has been eating like a horse on his DL stint, enabling him to come back and quit nibbling. If he comes back and back on last year's pace, a whole lot of things are fixed.

    Secondly, maybe find a trade partner for LaRue/Griffey that can net a #4/5 starter or middle reliever. Remember, I said 'hope'


    The July schedule has the Brew Crew on it 9 times....a good chance to start getting the positive press they have enjoyed as a 'serious contender' by taking them to the woodshed. July is identity month for your Cincinnati Reds.
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    Re: Trade deadline may be too late.

    Quote Originally Posted by VR
    The bad news....the Cards have the hutzpah to go out and get Zito or Smoltz, and a bat.




    What would a Zito or a Smoltz cost the Cards????

    Well, for openers, Zito won't find himself in St. Louis unless Anthony Reyes (and others) find themselves in Oakland. With 4 out of 5 of the Cards starters FA's after this year, there is no (sane) reason why the Cards would move Reyes. I don't think that will happen. I don't think it can happen. And Zitp won't be moved for less, as someone will pay that kind of price (major league ready starter).

    Smoltz// He's signed for next year for $8M, so there's no real reason he has to be moved by the Braves this year. That doesn't mean he won't be, but his cost will be plenty. Smoltz could win some team the WS, he's that clutch.

    So don't assume that the cards can drop a few propsect from their pile of plenty and get who ever they want. Because the prospect cost for players like Smoltz and Zito will be huge, and the Cards don't have the surplus to give.

  14. #13
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    Re: Trade deadline may be too late.

    The Reds have a bunch of trading chips...and there'll be a bunch of arms moving this deadline. The most persistent and aggressive GM will win the sweepstakes. Get choppin' Wayne.

  15. #14
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    Re: Trade deadline may be too late.

    Fixing the bullpen is a task similar to the rotation over the last two years--one pitcher at a time. It's the old "how do you eat an elephant" axiom when you have a problem that seems too large to fix. You remove one poorly performing member, you replace him with a performing member who is a clear improvement. You deal from a surplus (LaRue, Freel) to get something you're missing.

    Some folks I would really look hard at right now would be Bobby Howry (take on salary, likely only give up a low level prospect as a result), Elmer Dessens (again, probably a couple of A ballers might get this done), Todd Wellemeyer (I really wanted us to pick him up when he was DFAd). Tom Gordon also is not a bad idea from another thread, but I think he might cost a major leaguer to get. But those are starting points and the only way to rebuild the bullpen--one arm at a time.

    Of course, I'd also look to someone like Dumatrait and Germano to fill Weathers' spot after I DFA him.
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  16. #15
    You're soaking in it! MartyFan's Avatar
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    Re: Trade deadline may be too late.

    I think Special K will make some moves to help the team...it may be that the best moves he can make would not bring a top teir player but instead someone like BA when we picked him up from being the #6 starter at Boston.

    He's been swingin for the fences since day one and I have no doubt EVERYTHING he has done is for the long term stability of the team.
    "Sometimes, it's not the sexiest moves that put you over the top," Krivsky said. "It's a series of transactions that help you get there."


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