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View Poll Results: Buy or sell?

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  • Buy, even if the Reds aren't that good, no else is either

    58 29.44%
  • Sell, baby, sell, the slide has started and it's not going to stop

    30 15.23%
  • Buy/sell, sell vets and prospects to acquire young guys who can help in 2006 and beyond

    109 55.33%
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Thread: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

  1. #61
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

    When you're insisting that Eric Milton (5.24 ERA) is pitching semi-well and that Paul Wilson might come back and help a team contend, you're really grasping at straws.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    When you're insisting that Eric Milton (5.24 ERA) is pitching semi-well and that Paul Wilson might come back and help a team contend, you're really grasping at straws.
    Granted, he's in no danger of winning a CY, but consider that even with his two recent poor outings; Way, way better than his 2005 debacle -- his ERA is a little out of whack

    BIPA = .265
    BAA = .263
    WHIP = 1.29
    OPS = .772 (would be 32nd in NL for starters if qualified)
    8 out of 13 QS (when he blows he blows, but he does keep you in a lot of games, especially as a #4/5 starter)
    $8.5M salary
    Home splits actually are better than road splits

    Reds OPS Comparison

    Arroyo .688
    Harang = .745
    Lizard = .748
    Milton = .772
    Coffey = .790
    Claussen = .876
    Mays = .925

    FCB -- DFA Milton?

    Or some others...
    Dontrelle = .756
    Maddux = .768
    D Davis = .769
    Pettitte = .876
    Od Perez = .929 (worse than Mays!)

    How about what was recently 80% of the current Cards Staff with much better defense behind them to avoid prolonged innings/flag down more gappers...

    Marquis = .817
    Suppan = .877
    Mulder = .905
    Ponson = .843 (DFA'd)

  4. #63
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

    That other teams have pitchers doing poorly isn't a justification for counting on Eric Milton. If the Milton stays in the rotation, the Reds will need to overcome the enormous amount of damage he does in order to stay in contention.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  5. #64
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    Re: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by oregonred
    Granted, he's in no danger of winning a CY, but consider that even with his two recent poor outings; Way, way better than his 2005 debacle -- his ERA is a little out of whack

    BIPA = .265
    BAA = .263
    WHIP = 1.29
    OPS = .772 (would be 32nd in NL for starters if qualified)
    8 out of 13 QS (when he blows he blows, but he does keep you in a lot of games, especially as a #4/5 starter)
    $8.5M salary
    Home splits actually are better than road splits

    Reds OPS Comparison

    Arroyo .688
    Harang = .745
    Lizard = .748
    Milton = .772
    Coffey = .790
    Claussen = .876
    Mays = .925

    FCB -- DFA Milton?

    Or some others...
    Dontrelle = .756
    Maddux = .768
    D Davis = .769
    Pettitte = .876
    Od Perez = .929 (worse than Mays!)

    How about what was recently 80% of the current Cards Staff with much better defense behind them to avoid prolonged innings/flag down more gappers...

    Marquis = .817
    Suppan = .877
    Mulder = .905
    Ponson = .843 (DFA'd)

    Yeah, he's at .772 OPSA--and it's only getting worse. He's shown no signs of turning it around.

  6. #65
    "So Fla Red"
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    Re: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    That other teams have pitchers doing poorly isn't a justification for counting on Eric Milton. If the Milton stays in the rotation, the Reds will need to overcome the enormous amount of damage he does in order to stay in contention.
    Really, and I thought he was going to revert to grab the Cy Young...

    He certainly isn't worth 8.5M, but he's a serviceable #4 on this staff. He's actually been surprisingly un-Miltonlike in the majority of his starts this season.

  7. #66
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    Re: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    Yeah, he's at .772 OPSA--and it's only getting worse. He's shown no signs of turning it around.
    He's a gas can mixed with explosives when he begins to fall apart. But your plan for the #4/#5 spots in the rotation starting Thursday night would be??

    And you would trade for which two of the ~25 Starters in each league who have posted a better 1st half?

  8. #67
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    Re: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    When you're insisting that Eric Milton (5.24 ERA) is pitching semi-well and that Paul Wilson might come back and help a team contend, you're really grasping at straws.
    On the surface stats Milton looks awful but as others have pointed out, he is in fact pitching semi well. With our offense we can survive with semi well. What we can survive is the bullpen blowing games we should win. I am way less concerned with the rotation than I am the pen.

    Hey a lot of teams out there have worse than Paul wilson to throw out there. Its not like it was that long ago that he had success. Hes not something I would gamble my season on but he's an option... can't do ne worse than mays

  9. #68
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    Re: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by The_jbh
    On the surface stats Milton looks awful but as others have pointed out, he is in fact pitching semi well. With our offense we can survive with semi well. What we can survive is the bullpen blowing games we should win. I am way less concerned with the rotation than I am the pen.
    Currently, there are 46 NL Starting Pitchers who qualify for the ERA title. If Eric Milton qualified, he'd rank 42nd out of 47 with a 4.97 DIPS ERA. He's not pitching "semi-well". He's pitching badly.

    Hey a lot of teams out there have worse than Paul wilson to throw out there. Its not like it was that long ago that he had success. Hes not something I would gamble my season on but he's an option... can't do ne worse than mays
    Hoping that Paul Wilson returns to provide potential mediocrity (if he returns at all) isn't much of a plan. And if he returns this season there's a better than good chance he'll be gasoline added to the fire. Bum shoulders held together by twine and duct tape tend to do that.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  10. #69
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    Re: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Currently, there are 46 NL Starting Pitchers who qualify for the ERA title. If Eric Milton qualified, he'd rank 42nd out of 47 with a 4.97 DIPS ERA. He's not pitching "semi-well". He's pitching badly.



    Hoping that Paul Wilson returns to provide potential mediocrity (if he returns at all) isn't much of a plan. And if he returns this season there's a better than good chance he'll be gasoline added to the fire. Bum shoulders held together by twine and duct tape tend to do that.
    I'm not expecting anything out of Paul Wilson, I'm just saying he's an option, another guy that we can see if he can give u anything whether its starting or relieving. Atleast he's had sucess in the past. He very well could be adding fuel to the fire just as well as he could give us some quality innings... who knows...

  11. #70
    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by The_jbh
    I'm not expecting anything out of Paul Wilson, I'm just saying he's an option, another guy that we can see if he can give u anything whether its starting or relieving. Atleast he's had sucess in the past. He very well could be adding fuel to the fire just as well as he could give us some quality innings... who knows...
    Its far from a 50/50 thing. The odds that he adds gas to the fire are much greater than the odds of him being a help. There are large sample sizes of horrific numbers from the guy to back that up on top of his most recent injuries. I can't think of one thing besides unadalterated hope, that would lead someone to think Wilson could be a help in the second half.

  12. #71
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by oregonred
    Really, and I thought he was going to revert to grab the Cy Young...

    He certainly isn't worth 8.5M, but he's a serviceable #4 on this staff. He's actually been surprisingly un-Miltonlike in the majority of his starts this season.
    His Miltonosity has been catching up to him with a vengence and he's not a serviceable #4 on a playoff contender.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  13. #72
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    Re: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by M2
    His Miltonosity has been catching up to him with a vengence and he's not a serviceable #4 on a playoff contender.
    Miltonisity -- that's a great one.

    We've got a whole lexicon around Milton, my fav being the oft used "suckitude" references from 2005.

    Then where are the Cards with their present rotation? Take a look at almost all the NL Contenders -- it's pretty ugly right now for back of the rotation #4/#5 type fodder almost across the board.

    Solve our gaping #5 issue (basically a guaranteed loss and bullpen drainer every time out) then we'll worry next about upgrading from Uncle Milty who is keeping the Reds in the vast majority of his 2006 games pitched to date.

  14. #73
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D
    Pessimists? How about realists.


    -We started 19-8. We are 26-36 since. I don't care how weak the NL central is, you aren't going to catch anyone playing 10 games under .500.
    I agree. And what area of this team has largely led to that poor play?

    For the most part - the bullpen is the culprit.

    The bullpen is fixable (and maybe not this year; but in the off-season) without selling off or gutting this team.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  15. #74
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers

    Quote Originally Posted by oregonred
    Where are the Cards with their present rotation? Take a look at almost all the NL Contenders -- it's pretty ugly right now for back of the rotation #4/#5 type fodder almost across the board.
    The operational part of that paragraph being "right now." Someone in the division is going to get their rotation sorted out. It might be more than one team. Eric Milton is not going to get sorted out. He's going to pitch poorly and keep his ERA 5.00. There's no sunshine in a 5.00+ ERA. It's something that should be reviled by a team that fancies itself a contender.

    You're assuming that things will just keep going wrong for other NL Central teams and that none of them will correct an obvious, glaring problem so the Reds don't have to deal with Milton. IMO, if the Reds share that line of thinking then they can expect a quick descent into irrelevance.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.


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