That's the debate: Start the arbitration clock vs. matching him up with the window of a younger and cheaper core.Originally Posted by CaptainHook
Year #1 in 2007 of an average #3 type of pitcher in Bailey might be enough to get you over the top and into the playoffs. Then #2 type stuff in 2008, #1/#2 stuff in 2009. Maybe you compete each season for the postseason, drive up attendance and keep Harang/Arroyo/Dunn in place a few more years.
2007 at .500 with no Bailey, then add him in 2008 or 2009 with #2 type stuff and risk having some of your young core gone due to payroll and lower attendance in 2007 (Arroyo's contract is up after 2008, Lopez, Kearns, Dunn all super expensive). Maybe that gets you to finish .500 in 2009??
Bonderman lost 19 and had bad numbers on an awful team but Sabathia came out with #2 type stuff, won 17 games and had a 4.3ish ERA in his first season and led the Tribe to a division title on a team with three aging gas cans in the rotation (Burba/Finley and a going fast downhill Charles Nagy). Dontrelle put his team over the top and into the WS in 2003.
All depends if you believe the Reds will be better positioned in 2007 vs. 2009. The FO has a lot of work to do regardless.