Your Reds top 10 Prospects....

[dougdirt]

I think I actually have a list ready now.... 1-6 came easy. After that I really started to have to think and debate with myself.

1. Homer Bailey- has the potential to be the highest ceiling player the Reds currently have. Fastball that sits in the mid 90's and can get to 98. Needs work with his curve and change though. Could be the first Reds player to crack the top 10 of Baseball Americas Top Prospects list at the end of the year since 1991 (Reggie Sanders).

2. Jay Bruce - Just go ahead and read what OBM said, he summed it up very well.

3. Joey Votto - 22 year old first baseman who is dominating AA.

4. Travis Wood - The next three players are all neck and neck, but Wood goes #4 due to his age and the arm he throws with. He has good peripheral numbers, k/9, h/9 and his HR problems have been a footnote lately with just 2 allowed since June began.

5. Johnny Cueto - He was a little older than Wood and didnt out perform him to much while they were both at Dayton, so I had to put him a notch lower. Cuetos size is also a little bit worrisome. Fact is though, he has good stuff and he gets guys out.

6. Zach Ward - He is dominating the MWL top to bottom. He is striking guys out, not allowing hits and has allowed just 2 HR's all year. He is a little old for the league and for the life of me I cant figure out why he is still in Dayton.

Here is where the list kind of dropped off as far as performance and I had to start looking at performance and ceilings.

7. Javon Moran - He doesnt take a walk, but the guy hits, hits, hits and then hits some more. Since coming over with Elizardo Ramirez in the Cory Lidle trade, he has hit over .330 for the Reds farm system. He plays good defense as well, but has no power and his on base percentage is completely batting average driven.

8. Rafael Gonzalez - He is young, and arguably has some of the best stuff in the system. He has been very inconsistant up to this point though, and for how good his stuff is, he hasnt shown the ability to strike guys out like you would like. His ceiling however is quite high, question is if he can ever reach it.

9. Phil Dumatrait - He has performed well this season between Chattanooga and Louisville with the exception of 3 starts. His future is probably as a bullpen guy, but he has good stuff and is at the higher rungs in the minors.

10. Drew Stubbs - His defense is the best we have in the system. He is also a very good athlete with a very high ceiling. He is struggling to hit though in the Pioneer League which has me worried, but its still early in the season.

Honorable mention players: Sean Watson, Tyler Pelland, BJ Szymanski, Adam Rosales, William Bergolla*, Miguel Perez*, Chris Denorfia*,The Chattanooga Bullpen. Outside of Watson and Stubbs, the 2006 draft is still a little too early to get much from.

*note: anyone with MLB service time was left off my list. Denorfia would have probably fallen between 5 and 8. Bergolla and Perez both have very little service time, but werent really guys I saw in the top 10 if they were eligible*

[Blue]

1. Bailey - Needs to learn to change speeds, fastballs only go so far

I think if Bailey was just throwing fastballs, we would be completely unjustified in placing him at the top of our lists. I feel like everyone is basing too much of their opinion on his one inning of work during the futures game. I can't find the link, but the hotsheet on BA said he was throwing not only a killer curveball, but an average changeup.

[Aronchis]

The essentials:
1.Homer Bailey: The strong arm chap has a high velocity fastball and big potential on his breaking ball, though he needs to get it consistant. Just needs to develope a serviceable changeup to complete the arsenal.
2.Jay Bruce: Big dude with major power, has the "raw" talent for plate discipline to walk 100 times and 100RBI's down the road. Walker development cycle is compareable.
The "good":
3.Joey Votto: Raw power is his greatest asset, but his other skills aren't to shabby either giving him some heads up over other prospects.
4.Travis Wood: lefty-changeup type that is very young still. Will have ups and down but changeup will make people take notice.
5.Zack Ward: Big, pure sinkerballer always nice, especially if the future leads him to homer prone GAB. Needs to move up.
6.Johnny Cueto: Small, but talented strapping lad. Features a 93mph fastball, 75mph changup and a talented breaking pitch. Got promoted a little fast.
The slop:
Lecure,Pelland,2006 draftee's and D&F's

Reds system is having a big year at the top, though the depth needs to improve some.

[geddyrunn]

No mention of Stephen Kelly. He has been solid and there was talk of him coming up last year. His last outing didn't go well, otherwise he has pitched a lot of innings all the way through the system, with solid numbers.

[flyer85]

Bailey
Bruce
Votto
Denorfia
Wood
Cueto
Ward
Watson
Stubbs
LeCure

[Steve4192]

I think if Bailey was just throwing fastballs, we would be completely unjustified in placing him at the top of our lists. I feel like everyone is basing too much of their opinion on his one inning of work during the futures game. I can't find the link, but the hotsheet on BA said he was throwing not only a killer curveball, but an average changeup.

I am basing more on what we have heard from the Reds brass and minor league staff.

His performance in the Future's game was just a microcosm of what we had already been hearing ... Homer is overpowering hitters with his #1 and hasn't developed much confidence in his secondary pitches. We all know that he has a plus-curveball and a developing changeup, but he doesn't have the confidence to use them when he is behind in the count. On an unrelated note, he would also be well-served by learning to vary speeds on his heater (possibly by throwing a two-seamer) just to give hitters another wrinkle to consider.

[Aronchis]

I am basing more on what we have heard from the Reds brass and minor league staff.

His performance in the Future's game was just a microcosm of what we had already been hearing ... Homer is overpowering hitters with his #1 and hasn't developed much confidence in his secondary pitches. We all know that he has a plus-curveball and a developing changeup, but he doesn't have the confidence to use them when he is behind in the count. On an unrelated note, he would also be well-served by learning to vary speeds on his heater (possibly by throwing a two-seamer) just to give hitters another wrinkle to consider.

I have heard the same thing, but differently. Reds brass think Homer has a heck of a curveball in the pipes, but he needs to get it more consistant. That is different than your "build one from scratch" beliefs.

[Blue]

On an unrelated note, he would also be well-served by learning to vary speeds on his heater (possibly by throwing a two-seamer) just to give hitters another wrinkle to consider.

You know, I wasn't going to bring this up, but I think he had pitches register at 92 and 93 mph during the Futures Game, and they had excellent movement. If someone taped or Tivo'd the game, did you see that?

[dougdirt]

Blue, I have the game on DVR, I will go look at it in a little bit. I do remember one pitch coming in at 92 though.

[Steve4192]

I have heard the same thing, but differently. Reds brass think Homer has a heck of a curveball in the pipes, but he needs to get it more consistant. That is different than your "build one from scratch" beliefs.

What makes you think I believe he needs to 'build one from scratch'?

Was it this quote?

We all know that he has a plus-curveball

[Benihana]

1. Homer Bailey RHP AA 20 yrs old
2. Jay Bruce OF LowA 19 yrs old
3. Joey Votto 1B AA 22 yrs old
4. Travis Wood LHP LowA 19 yrs old
5. Justin Cueto RHP HighA 20 yrs old?
6. Zach Ward RHP LowA 22 yrs old?
7. Drew Stubbs OF Rookie 20 yrs old?

after that, no one else really matters at this point.

[TOBTTReds]

9. BJ Szymanski (push him up the ladder already)

What? The guy can't hit low-A pitching. What do you think he would do in a pitchers league in Sarasota?

I got:
1. Homer
2. Bruce
3. Votto
4. Wood
5. Ward
6. Moran
7. Cueto
8. Denorfia (I only think he will be a mediocre player in the bigs, Brady Clark esque as many compare Deno to BC.)
9. Stubbs (The lack of hitting scares me, is he Chris Dickerson II?)
10. Sean Watson and Logan Parker (love this kid)

[The_jbh]

Bailey had the best rated curveball 12 to 6 rated in his draft for high school pitchers. He has a great curveball it just needs to be more consistent.

No mention of Stephen Kelly bc he is a stuffy guy... he doesnt have the highest ceiling in the world but he could be a serviceable major leaguer... just not one of the kids who is going to make a prospect list.

[markymark69]

Homer Bailey--- Top of rotation starter, the long awaited home grown ace.
Jay Bruce --- Great make-up, great talent
Joey Votto --- best 1st prospect in the organiztion in a while.
Drew Stubbs --- Another quality athlete --- great defense
Chris Denorfia --- Not as high on him as others, but good, all-around player
Travis Wood --- Expect him to be a great 1-2 punch with Bailey.
Phil Dumatrait --- Would like to see what he could now; a solid prospect.
Javon Moran --- Good contact --- you always a spot for a players that put the bat on the ball.
Miguel Perez --- May be our only hope behind the plate in the entire organiztion after David Ross.
B.J. Symanski --- Perhaps a little high, but I think he'll begin to figure things out.

[The_jbh]

I remember how excited I was when BJ fell to us in the draft. I hope he turns it around. He was a raw pick so hopefully hes just a late bloomer