Turn Off Ads?
Results 1 to 7 of 7

Thread: All-Star BABIPs

  1. #1
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,356

    All-Star BABIPs

    Obviously a lot of folks are hoping for the Reds pitching to kick into a higher gear in the second half of the season, but which pitchers are really in line to do that?

    Well, our repeated visits to BABIP have proven a good predictor of such things in the past, so let's see who's getting lucky and who's due for better fortune.

    First off, the Reds' DER (that's the ratio for how often the team turns a ball in play into an out) is .689, which is awful. The '99 Reds had a .731 DER. The '95 Reds were .705. The '90 Reds were .717. The BRM was .714 in '76 and .724 in '75.

    So the defense really needs to start giving the pitchers some better support. A .311 BABIP spells trouble for anyone.

    Now here's the Reds' individual pitchers:

    Bronson Arroyo - .282, on another team that would be a fairly reasonable number and you could expect Arroyo to continue in his current vein. With the Reds' defense, he's probably in for a drop, which is too bad.

    Aaron Harang - .341, he's got by far the highest BABIP of any pitcher ranking in the top 50 in VORP (Roy Oswalt is second at .322). Most guys on the list, not surprisingly, are sub-.300. Anyway, Harang's balls in play should stop finding so many holes and he should pitch better in the second half.

    Todd Coffey - .317, last year he was crazy unlucky, this year he's been pretty much average. Unfortunately he's now allowing too many balls in play.

    Elizardo Ramirez - .293, he's in pretty much the same boat as Arroyo. With better defensive support, .293 should be fairly standard stuff. Unfortunately it isn't. Though Elizardo, like Coffey, allows too many in play.

    Eric Milton - .269, be afraid, very afraid.

    David Weathers - .296, he's getting crushed and it's not a fluke.

    Esteban Yan - .220, for anyone thinking that maybe Yan will be part of the solution, don't.

    Matt Belisle - .300, he's an honest-to-goodness pedestrian pitcher, no gimmicks.

    Kent Mercker - .266, good Lord, what's he going to do when he stops getting lucky?

    Jason Standridge - .385, weird numbers happen when you've only got 6.1 IP. I wouldn't advise reading too much into that figure.

    Eddie Guardado (SEA) - .328, even with the Reds' criminal defense Eddie should get a turn of good luck in the second half of the season..

    Brian Shackelford - .278, insert "getting lucky" joke here.

    Joe Mays - .386, while he surely won't pitch well, he should get better.

    Brandon Claussen - .332, he's probably the team's best sleeper for the second half.

    Chris Hammond - .341, same boat as Mays.

    Mike Burns - .528, that number is nothing short of hysterical.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    25,060

    Re: All-Star BABIPs

    Quote Originally Posted by M2

    Mike Burns - .528, that number is nothing short of hysterical.
    If I were a high school girl, I'd write this on my folder in big bubbly letters and laugh at it in the middle of AP European History.

  4. #3
    Member Jpup's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Southern KY
    Posts
    6,967

    Re: All-Star BABIPs

    can you explain the stat a little better. I have no idea what you are talking about.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  5. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    NorthEast
    Posts
    1,002

    Re: All-Star BABIPs

    BABIP is batting average based on balls put into play. That is it is meant to give some idea of how much effect a teams defence has on the batting average against a particular pitcher. It takes out strikes and home runs. It allows for comparisons between each pitcher and how "lucky" he is in getting outs when he relies on his defence. That being said the luck component is based on the fact that the generally regarded standard is that a pitcher's BABIP should be .290. If its lower you're lucky and if its higher you're unlucky.

  6. #5
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,767

    Re: All-Star BABIPs

    BABIP is one reason I highly believe in High Strikeout pitchers being the most successful type. The fewer balls you have put in play, the fewer balls that should become hits. Roughly 30% of all balls in play go as hits.

  7. #6
    "So Fla Red"
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    South Florida - The Real Humidor
    Posts
    5,067

    Re: All-Star BABIPs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    BABIP is one reason I highly believe in High Strikeout pitchers being the most successful type. The fewer balls you have put in play, the fewer balls that should become hits. Roughly 30% of all balls in play go as hits.
    Yes and 100% of the walks go as base runners.

    So a High K/9 and a high K/BB might be the best combo to overcome shoddy defense and balls in play. With special mention to G/FO.

    K/BB tops in the NL -- parenthesis is rank on K/9 only.

    Webb (#19)
    Peavy (#1)
    Capuano (#9)
    Pedro (#2)
    Smoltz (#7)
    Bush (#11, surpised with this one)
    Harang (#5 -- Is this guy really a Red? Double nice!)
    OSwalt (#24)
    Carpenter (#8)
    Maddux (#36, just never walks anyone)
    Arroyo (#18, Is this guy really a Red)
    Penny (#17)
    Young (#6)

    Note: The Lizard would be #13 in K/BB if qualified. Uncle Milty a surprising #16 -- which helps explains his currently respectable WHIP and BAA against numbers. Neither walks many guys although the Lizard is near the 6 K/9 mark.

  8. #7
    So Long Uncle Joe BoydsOfSummer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Hamilton,Ohio
    Posts
    3,850

    Re: All-Star BABIPs

    Eric Milton - .269, be afraid, very afraid.
    AIR RAID!!
    0 Value Over Replacement Poster


    "Sit over here next to Johnathan (Bench)...sit right here, he's smart."--Sparky Anderson


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25