Pitch Counts and PAP

[flyer85]

Harang(3rd) and Arroyo(2nd) have thrown the 2nd and 3rd most pitches in all of baseball in the first half of the season. In addition, they are 3rd(Harang) and 8th in PAP. Make of that what you will but both Harang and Arroyo seemed to lose some effectiveness heading into the break.

[Danny Serafini]

What's PAP?

[boognish]

I started tracking this in mid-May when FSN ran a graphic that placed Harang fourth and Arroyo third in the NL in pitches. I agree with the observation that both were less effective, and also point out the obvious that Narron is clearly growing more and more reticent to go to the pen these days.

Harang actually averaged about 107 pitches per start last season, and is up at 109 now...I wonder if his BABIP starts to fall (it was mentioned in another thread as over .340, I believe, an absurdly high figure even with the woes of our D both measured by number of errors and number of batted balls converted into outs) and he converts more balls in play into outs if he will get deeper into games with the same amount of pitches before his abuse points rise exponentially.

2005: 106.7 p/G, 16.1 p/IP
2006: 108.7 p/G, 16.4 p/IP

I am less worried about Harang though, since he didn't wear down with the increased workload in September last year as he did in 2004, and with the exception of his 1.5 K/9 spike in that category, his numbers so far (in terms of p/AB, p/IP, p/GS) are eerily similar to last season.

Arroyo I am far less familiar with and has pitched far better than his career norms this season...I don't buy the common line from Reds broadcasters/journalists that his high % of slow curves thrown make increased workload "easy" on his arm. I am much more worried about him blowing up, and would not be surprised if August struggles move his aggregate ERA into the 4.0 - 4.4 range. His body type is less well-equipped to take the toll than a huge guy like Harang, IMO.

That said if the Reds fall out of it and Narron STILL neglects the toll on these guys arms, we will really regret that extension.

[Rojo]

I am much more worried about him blowing up, and would not be surprised if August struggles move his aggregate ERA into the 4.0 - 4.4 range. His body type is less well-equipped to take the toll than a huge guy like Harang, IMO.

That's my concern as well which is why the need for more arms is so pressing - in the pen and the rotation.

[Cyclone792]

Arroyo I am far less familiar with and has pitched far better than his career norms this season...I don't buy the common line from Reds broadcasters/journalists that his high % of slow curves thrown make increased workload "easy" on his arm. I am much more worried about him blowing up, and would not be surprised if August struggles move his aggregate ERA into the 4.0 - 4.4 range. His body type is less well-equipped to take the toll than a huge guy like Harang, IMO.

That said if the Reds fall out of it and Narron STILL neglects the toll on these guys arms, we will really regret that extension.

Good post, boog, and you're on target with Arroyo. Here's a post I made a month ago regarding Arroyo's 127-pitch outing:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=706

Arroyo's pitch count by inning: 21, 13, 14, 17, 14, 32, 16

Arroyo sat at 111 pitches after his high-stress 32-pitch 6th inning, and most of those 32 pitches were out of the stretch since runners were on base for the bulk of the inning. At that juncture in the game, Arroyo's workload was ideal, but nowhere near light enough to warrant him coming out for another inning.

And then in the bottom of the 6th inning Narron sends Arroyo to the plate with two outs and a basestealing threat in Olmedo on first base. Of course, Olmedo steals second base and gets into scoring position, but Arroyo bats for himself, makes an out - like pitchers usually do when they swing the lumber - and Narron decides to run him out there again in the 7th inning.

That's totally irresponsible managing on Jerry Narron's part.

As I said earlier, there is no way in the world I'm running my pitcher back out to the mound for another inning when he's already thrown 111 pitches, especially with 32 of those pitches thrown in the previous inning. Heading into tonight, Arroyo had pitched to exactly two batters at a pitch count of 121+ pitches in his entire career, and the chances of him getting out of the 7th inning in few pitches is ... remote. It really wouldn't surprise me if Arroyo's arm was taxed tonight in the 7th inning further than it ever has been in his career.

I hate to say it, but that's a Dusty Baker style of handling a pitching staff, and it's a good way to cause damage to a pitcher's arm.

Here's how Arroyo's fared since that infamous outing:

Innings:  33.33
K/BB:      1.92

K/9        6.21
BB/9       3.24
HR/9       1.62

ERA        4.86
DIPS ERA   5.16

People reading this have to ask themselves: Coincidence, or no? Secondly, they also have to ask themselves what this team's chances are if Arroyo puts up an ERA in the 4.50 to 5.00 range from here on out. The short answer isn't even not good, it's just about zero.

Now there's a large contingent of people, myself included, who are annoyed with Narron because of his total ignorance in all things veterans combined with his inability to fill out a solid lineup card night after night. Those little annoyances are minor, however, compared to his sheer disregard for the health of our two main horses at the top of the rotation. I don't care if we have the worst bullpen in the history of the game; there is absolutely no excuse and no reason whatsoever to run any starting pitcher out there like Narron has done so far with Harang and Arroyo.

I've noticed people are having a grand time talking about potential trades, how to help the Reds down the stretch this season and how to improve the team in the future. That's all well and good, but if either Harang OR Arroyo go down with an injury or become ineffective due to overuse by Narron, those discussions all become moot as not even the wonders of lady luck will save this squad at that point.

I don't care what qualities Jerry Narron may have that we do not know about, but if he abuses the heck out of Harang and Arroyo, he needs to be as good as gone before he ruins what few quality arms we've currently got.

[RedsManRick]

PAP (Pitcher Abuse Points) is a system which basically tries to account for the affect of pitchers pitching long outings in terms of pitch count.

Basically after a certain number of pitches (100?) it scales expotentially, like the richter scale. I believe it was correlated against injury histories, thus is vaguely useful in that context.

In terms of application, you'll see that a single 140 pitch outing is much much more dangerous than a string of 3 110 pitch outings.

[Spitball]

I remember expressing concerns about Jeff Weaver's pitch counts just before the Tigers traded him to New York. In fact, I got into a rather heated discussion with a fellow poster on the subject. He made some valid points, but I believe history has proven me out. He was never quite the same pitcher again after that 131 pitch game.

Here are his pitch counts just before the trade:

101
121
100
102
110
115
126
108
114
127
124
116
75
119
131
105
118

Let's pray for bullpen depth before it is too late. As a long time Reds fan I have too many painful memories of arm injuries cutting careers short. Maloney, Nolan, Simpson...

[forfreelin04]

I think if Jerry receives another solid bullpen reliever like a Dessens or a Hernandez then you will see Harang and Arroyo pitch 7 innings more and more unless their pitch count calls for more innings. I think dual setup men with Coffey and Dessens/Hernandez could really bolsters this teams shot at the postseason.

I don't understand why many analysts are suggesting Arroyo's pct of curveballs allows him to throw more pitches. As you all know a pitching motion however thrown (sidearm or three quarters or overhands) is not a natural motion. Underhand is actually a natural one. Hence the three games in a row softballs pitchers throw. But a curveball actually puts more stress on the forearm with more of unatural motion. A twist or snap to the wrist along with the same motion. Also, a good pitcher will tell you that his fastball speed comes not from his arm but his ability to have the largest range of motion with his whole body projecting the ball forward. One need look no farther then a Nolan Ryan windup. The guy literally had his whole lower torso propel his pitch along with his fastball. Then the opposite, gentlemen like Luke Hudson and Matt Clement are throwers. They throw with mostly their arm which allows them to go on exstensive stinks on the DL. If they would only stay back on the rubber and drive with the hip and waist areas, they wouldn't have to frequent such lists nearly as often.

Finally, in regards to Arroyo I havent seen him on TV enough to really label him one of these two. However his patented leg kick leads me to believe he is not getting a full range of motion. This is not good if Bronson is throwing 120 plus pitches a game over a full season.

[blumj]

Then the opposite, gentlemen like Luke Hudson and Matt Clement are throwers. They throw with mostly their arm which allows them to go on exstensive stinks on the DL.

I don't know why I feel the need to defend Matt Clement, but until his current stint on the DL, he'd made 30 or more starts every year for 7 straight seasons. And I don't really think his current problem is really in his arm. Perhaps you were thinking of someone else? Wade Miller popped into my head, for some reason.

[Ltlabner]

Now there's a large contingent of people, myself included, who are annoyed with Narron because of his total ignorance in all things veterans combined with his inability to fill out a solid lineup card night after night. Those little annoyances are minor, however, compared to his sheer disregard for the health of our two main horses at the top of the rotation. I don't care if we have the worst bullpen in the history of the game; there is absolutely no excuse and no reason whatsoever to run any starting pitcher out there like Narron has done so far with Harang and Arroyo.

While I don't get as crazed as some do over the vets and totally agree about the his ever changing line ups (drives me wild) I agree 100% with Cylone about his overuse of the two horses at the front of the line up is his #1 sin. Wasn't it reciently BA threw a complete loosing game? Why leave the guy out there? I think (and am likely wrong) that he ended up 120 or more pitches? It was 4-1 against the Braves (again, I think). I know it was close. I know the bullpen stinks. I know it's arm-chair GM'ing but he has to think long term.

I know the bullpen is horrible. And I know everybody growns when they come in. I've even thought to myself on occasion "the starting pitcher has to make it into the 7th or 8th so we don't give the bullpen a chance to blow this game". But to run Harrang and BA at full tilt now is rolling the dice in the short term, that could really, and I mean REALLY cost us in the long term.

[boognish]

Fantastic post, Cyclone. I was at the game you alluded to (home vs. Milwaukee, if I am thinking of the right one) and was incredulous that Arroyo batted for himself in the bottom of the sixth.

Count me in as annoyed with Narron. I empathize that he is in the "middle of the race" and feels pressure to pick up Ws in the short-term--thus, scared to use the bullpen--but decisions like this one wither the team's chance to even tread water through the second half.

[Cooper]

Real good post Cyclone. One question: does PAP take into account a pitcher receiving an extra days rest. There have been occasions where Narron rested a pitcher an extra day and he should receive some credit for that --i would think it saves wear and tear on the arm. I like the PAP stat, but wasn't for sure it took extra days rest into account.

[edabbs44]

On May 22, the Reds beat the Brew Crew 15-5. Arroyo came out after the score was 15-1. Threw 7 innings, 101 pitches. I believe he hit in the bottom of the 6th and was taken out after the 7th. I brought up on the thread that he should have been pinch hit for in the 6th and some thought differently. Low stress or not, those pitches can catch up to pitchers later in the season.

[dabvu2498]

I wonder what the PAP would have been on Sandy Koufax making a Spring Training start in the 1950s, while recovering from an injury, and throwing 150 pitches.