he would know.Originally Posted by reds44
he would know.Originally Posted by reds44
"My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton
Sorry, just stating my opinion which I think I am able to do. I'm not really crying over losing Lopez (though I really wish BP was moved to SS b/c Clayton is awful) but the Kearns part really bothers me.Originally Posted by Eric_Davis
Or maybe he wanted to "dump" Pena more, while Boston maybe saw the "next" Manny?Originally Posted by Matt700wlw
"panic" only comes from having real expectations
Nobody expected this team to do anything this year. This team is extremly young. We are getting major contributions from Encarnacion (23), Phillips (25), Dunn (26), Denorfia (26), Ramirez (23), and Coffey (25). Majewski and Bray are 26 and 23 respectfully, and they are part of the future as well as this year. Arroyo, Phillips, Ross, and Hateberg weren't on our roster until Krivsky took over at the beginning of srping training, with Phillips being acquire in April. Considering what Krivsky has done with barely any offseason, I can't wait to see what he does with an entire offseason.
As for the trade, I think Krivsky is building his offense around Dunn and Encarnacion which made Kearns expandable. Lopez was a guy who's value is plumbiting and really didn't fit Krivsky's system. We can sit here all day and argue if he got enough for Kearns and Lopez, but it would get us nowhere. He is taking the team in a different direction then it has been. No more 1-8 where most of the guys are power hitters. He wants speed/OBP at the top, power in the middle, and defense at the bottom. Denorfia brings the speed and OBP at the top, not to mention his amazing range in the outfield, and a guy like Clayton brings defense to the bottom of the order. Freel will also see alot of time at the top of the order.
All I know is the guy has taken a team predicted to finish last in the central that had an OD lineup of this:
Tony Womack 2B
Felipe Lopez SS
Ken Griffey Jr. CF
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Scott Hatteberg 1B
Austin Kearns RF
Javier Valentin C
Aaron Harang P
and on the fly turned it into this:
Ross (when healthy)-C
a starting rotation like this when he took over in spring training:
and turned it into:
Claussen/Mays (a trade is coming)
and a bullpen that looked like this:
and turned it into:
Jason Standridge (would be Belisle when he is healthy)
He acquired Arroyo for Pena (who many people on this board, said we got the worse end of the deal of), Phillips and Ross for PTBNL, signed Hatteberg during ST, and traded Travis Chick for a proven closer.
He has re-made this team on the fly, and has us 5 games over .500 and 2.5 games up in the Wild Card in late July. I am going to trust the guy. Krivsky has taken alot of crap over the past few days, and I suggest we give him some time before you say how badly we got robbed in the trade.
He knows what he is doing.
Here is an interesting Reds analysis from RotoWorld. Don't worry, it's more relevant to the real world than the fantasy world.
Seeing Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner traded from Cincinnati to Washington for Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris and Daryl Thompson shocked me more than any trade in years. Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano was terrible, but since there were rumors about it in advance, I was prepared. I don’t think I’ve been that baffled by a move since the A’s sent Jeremy Giambi to the Phillies for John Mabry in 2002. Oakland’s motivation in that one only became clear later on. There was also Travis Hafner and Ryan Drese from Texas to Cleveland for Einar Diaz and Aaron Myette that year. I thought it was some newspaper columnist’s dream scenario when it was first printed, but it in fact became a done deal later that day. Still, Hafner was supposed to be a fairly average DH, not the AL’s best hitter, and the Rangers weren’t lacking for those. It is easy to see what Reds GM Wayne Krivsky is thinking here. It was a terrible trade anyway, but at least the man does seem to have a plan.
For a trade of such magnitude, the fantasy impact of the eight-player deal isn’t that big. What value Kearns and Lopez lose comes from the ballpark switch, but while RFK is a true pitcher’s park, Great American’s reputation as a haven for hitters is overblown. Kearns and Lopez are going to hit in premium spots in an improved Washington lineup, so they’re not hurt badly. The two relievers retain little value for the short-term. Majewski’s long-term stock goes up, since he could be a candidate to close next year. Still, Eddie Guardado is the man in Cincinnati right now and Todd Coffey remains the better bet for 2007. Clayton will see at least a little less playing time in Cincinnati than he did in Washington, but he had little value anyway. Wagner and Harris should be non-factors for the rest of 2006. Wagner, though, was a nice pickup for a throw-in. Thompson is a right-hander with some upside, but he’s already dealt with shoulder problems and is a few years away even if he doesn’t have more issues.
National League notes
Cincinnati - The trade just doesn’t look any better now than it did Thursday, even if the Reds did complete a four-game sweep of the Rockies on Sunday. It’d be one thing if the Reds received a pair of shut-down relievers. Gary Majewski and Bill Bray don’t fit that description, though. 2005 will likely go down as the best season of Majewski’s career. He throws hard, but he doesn’t get many strikeouts and the Reds’ still shaky defense won’t help him. Bray is likely to be the better of the two relievers by mid-2007. He should be a very good left-handed setup man and maybe even a closer in his prime, but he’s not there right now. Those two arms just aren’t going to make enough of a difference this year, and while they should help in 2007 and beyond, the Reds would have been better off paying the price to keep Kearns and Lopez. If they were that dissatisfied with Lopez at shortstop, they could have had him switch spots with Brandon Phillips. Phillips has plenty of range and might make the move next year anyway. … Edwin Encarnacion has been swinging well since coming off the disabled list, but Reds manager Jerry Narron continues to give Rich Aurilia a lot of time at third base. While it’s mostly about defense, it’s clear Narron has overrated Aurilia as a hitter from the way he keeps batting him cleanup against right-handers. Encarnacion has close to 200 points of OPS on Aurilia versus right-handers, and while he has been error-prone at third base, he does cover more ground than Aurilia. Encarnacion should eventually resume playing regularly, but it might be a few more weeks.
not to hijack this thread, but .Originally Posted by edabbs44
We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.
It's interesting that many Reds fans who support the trade claim Lopez and Kearns were overvalued, yet pretty much everyone who isn't close to the Reds thinks this was a terrible deal.
"I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful
I have taken in all the statistical analysis from guys like Steel, the statistical and subjective analysis of woy, and the purely subjective from Team Clark.
I hate this trade.
But my reasons for hating it are because I see a trend forming with Krivsky. He's like a 1st year fantasy baseball GM. He's made an astounding number of transactions, some that made seemingly no sense. Cody Ross? Yan? Mays? If the market for Guardado was Travis Chick, then Majewski could have been gotten for a Tyler Pelland. If you trade the prosuction of an Austin Kearns, I believe the Angels were looking for a bat, and Santana has been rumored to be available, you better get a good starting pitcher. And if Washington flips Kearns for him, as rumors hint that is possible, I'll just scream.
TC states FeLo could not have handled a transition to 2B. I think with Castro there to mentor it's possible he could have handled that transition, and then we have a plus defender at SS and at least league average at 2B. But TC stated that after Castro arrived FeLo started to improve his footwork. Had he the rest of the season to work with him, perhaps Lopez becomes an average to good defender at SS.
So the return is really two relievers and three throw-ins, unless Thompson is better than what the Reds already have at Dayton. And after seeing report after report of the Dayton rotation dominating the Midwest League, I kinda doubt he is.
All of this brings me to the conclusion that the Reds really wanted to seperate Kearns and Dunn, and Dunn's offense was valued higher than Kearns overall game. If the Reds see Phillips as the real future at SS, who is the future 2B? I don't see him in the system.
Is Denorfia the real deal? Is he Brady Clark part deux? maybe. If he isn't are we really counting on Jay Bruce to be in a Reds uni before 2009? The farm system has placed a premium on aquiring pitching talent because the offense at the major league level was so young. DanO and Krivsky both did this. But now krivsky has traded away two starters with no sure replacements in the minors. Deno isn't a can't miss guy. He's a Brady Clark guy. And remember it took Clark a long time to become a successful major leaguer. But he's got wheels, and good instincts in the field, so he doesn't hurt the Reds there. The question is can he hit ML pitching. we'll see.
Middle infield is a worry. The reds replaced a good hitting/weak fielding SS with an aging poor hitting/weak fielding SS. Why anyone thinks this was a good idea is beyond me. Harris projects as a utility guy, kind of a sub-Freel if you will. But Freel brings an offensive side to his game that Harris just doesn't possess: plate discipline and speed. If Deno is the starting RF, then Freel needs to be the starting 2B with Phillips moving to SS. Since that is apparently not going to happen before next year, the offense takes a BIG hit and the defens improve NOT at all.
How many deals are enough for one season? How many are too much? At what point does it affect the clubhouse, seeing guys come and go? Krivsky is very similar to Bowden, but where Bowden's weakness was "5 tool" OF's, Krivsky's appears to be middle relief pitchers.
Krivsky struck gold with Phillips and Arroyo. Silver with David Ross, and manure with just about everything else. I'm still waiting for someone to explain Cody Ross to me.
Last edited by TRF; 07-17-2006 at 11:31 AM.
Suck it up cupcake.
I went to my cousin's wedding this weekend and had about a dozen relatives ask just what in the hell the Reds were thinking. People in the office, almost all of whom are Red Sox fans, have come up to me and asked the same question. I work with a Dodgers fan who said he was pleased with the deal as he figures it makes the Wild Card that much easier to win. I know a British guy who likes the Astros who sent me an e-mail razzing the Reds and expressing confidence they'd just taken themselves out of the playoff hunt. What I've yet to hear is one person who doesn't have a rooting interest in the Reds think this was anything but a pure heist perpetrated by Bowden upon his old club.Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong
I'm witchcrafting everybody.
True, but then again every Reds fan wants to hold the hitting so close their vest that they seem to never want to try and see what will happen if you try another direction that includes more baseball players and less hitters.Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
Bill DeWitt... here's a piece on DeWitts first year with the Reds, pretty interesting stuff (PDF)But my reasons for hating it are because I see a trend forming with Krivsky. He's like a 1st year fantasy baseball GM. He's made an astounding number of transactions, some that made seemingly no sense.
Was that on Thursday?I know a British guy who likes the Astros who sent me an e-mail razzing the Reds and expressing confidence they'd just taken themselves out of the playoff hunt.
Yet my coworker in Chicago, who is a true baseball fan, not a fashinable Cubs fan thinks this was a move in the right direction for the team and doesn't think it's the end of the Reds as we know them as some here claim.What I've yet to hear is one person who doesn't have a rooting interest in the Reds think this was anything but a pure heist perpetrated by Bowden upon his old club.
That just goes to show you the value of all this antidoctal evidence about what people's cousins and bar keepers think about the trade
a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.
I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate
I don't think it's the end of the Reds as we know them.Originally Posted by Ltlabner
I just think it was a really, really really bad trade.
We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.
Buster Olney.Originally Posted by M2
The trade nearly ruined my vacation. Its not that we lost two young talented starters...its what we got back, which would have been great for a Larue type of player, no where NEAR the return for a Lopez/Kearns/Wagner package.
Thats my complaint. And we cant project Bray or Thompson either so its hardly relevent to now.
It was just a very odd move with some potential but not worth the currency given.
We traded 10 American dollars for 5 Canadian ones in the hope that the exchange rate eventually works in our favor.Originally Posted by smith288
We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.
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