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Thread: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

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    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    I posted much of this in the trade thread, but it got lost in the whirlwind of a dozen different discussions occuring simultaneously.

    Anyhow, regardless of how we feel about the trade itself and whether or not we feel justified that the return was enough, let's ignore that for a second here and try to grasp what we did receive in talent and whether or not the future outlook for this package is promising or dismal in any way, shape or form. I'll leave Daryl Thompson out of this since he's in the low minors, but the other four players may very well see action on the big club this season and in the future so here's a quick'n dirty look at the talent we just brought in this afternoon.

    *Minor League statistics for Bray and Harris include their 2006 stats

    Gary Majewski: 26-years-old
    Code:
    Lifetime K/9 ....... 5.32
    Lifetime BB/9 ...... 3.71
    Lifetime HR/9 ...... 0.44
    Lifetime K/BB ...... 1.43
    
    Lifetime DIPS ERA .. 3.92
    Lifetime ERA ....... 3.27
    
    Lifetime BABIP ..... .292
    
    Road HR/9 .......... 0.54
    Road DIPS ERA ...... 3.88
    Basically we're getting a guy in Majewski who's been maybe slightly BABIP hit lucky, doesn't strike many guys out at all, walks too many guys, but has the uncanny ability to keep the ball in the yard.

    Key question for Majewski: How will his HR/9 rate fare once pitching half his games in GABP? His road HR/9 rate, while a small sample in only 83 innings, does look promising so hopefully the spike up in home runs allowed for Majewski is minimal.

    Still, if this guy starts serving up the long ball, he could start getting torched real quick. If Majewski can continue his success in keeping the ball in the yard, he should have some success, though our poor defense may shine through and bump his ERA up close to his DIPS ERA level.

    Bill Bray: Just turned 23-years-old
    Code:
    Lifetime K/9 ....... 6.26
    Lifetime BB/9 ...... 3.52
    Lifetime HR/9 ...... 0.78
    Lifetime K/BB ...... 1.78
    
    Lifetime DIPS ERA .. 4.09
    Lifetime ERA ....... 3.91
    
    Lifetime BABIP ..... .310
    
    Minors K/9 ........ 11.44
    Minors BB/9 ........ 2.63
    Minors HR/9 ........ 1.14
    Minors K/BB ........ 4.35
    Based purely off statistics, Bray's a solid prospect lefty out of the pen. I'd like to see him carry his solid minor league K/9 rate up to the majors, but time will tell if he's able to accomplish that. His home run rate in the minors may be a tad worrisome as the combination of major league hitters + GABP could send that figure spiking higher than merely one bomb per nine innings.

    The good news for Bray is he's a young 23-years-old and he's already reached the majors. Hopefully development will continue for him over the next few seasons and we may have a solid, young reliever on our hands if he's able to carry his high K/9 rate onto the big club.

    Brendan Harris: 25-years-old (26 in August, 2006)
    Code:
    Minors BA ....... .293
    Minors OBP ...... .361
    Minors SLG ...... .465
    Minors OPS ...... .826
    
    Minors PA/BB .... 11.45
    Minors PA/HR .... 39.58
    Minors PA/2B .... 16.56
    
    Minors SB/CS .... 40/23
    Minor league projections over 600 PAs ... 30-35 doubles, 50 walks and 15 home runs.

    Harris' plate discipline in the minors wasn't abysmal, but it's not looking promising that he'll be able to draw walks with a great frequency at the big league level. That could pose serious problems since he could very well become an out machine without the ability to hit for much power. He looks to be primarily a singles and doubles hitter, and the key questions for Harris are how many walks will he take at the major league level, and how good is his defense. If both questions provide good news for the Reds, he could be a useful player for us. If one is lacking, then he could become a source of frustation for fans.

    Royce Clayton: Old Veteran

    Royce Clayton - who according to Jerry Narron really knows how to play the game the right way - is simply a veteran trash heap. Offensively, he's a lifetime .682 OPS (wow, that's bad). I wouldn't expect anything better than that out of Clayton while in a Reds uniform, and honestly if he's able to somehow give us an OPS over .700 we should consider ourselves fortunate.

    How about defensively? Clayton is rumored to be a slick glove guy, but I'm not seeing any evidence supporting that assertion anymore. Defensively, here were the bottom eight shortstops in PMR for 2005:
    Code:
    Runs Above Average
                      Original      Alternative
    
    Derek Jeter       -13.2134       -14.3688
    Russ M Adams      -13.4525       -13.4673
    Royce Clayton     -13.8171       -18.4288
    Jhonny Peralta    -15.0402       -14.8627
    Felipe Lopez      -18.5375       -21.2106
    Angel Berroa      -18.5556       -10.7785
    Michael Young     -19.2755       -17.3725
    Jose Reyes        -22.9404       -25.8656
    Royce Clayton was a very good defensive shortstop from 1994-2003. In 2004, however, he had -10 fielding runs above average. In 2005, he had -3 fielding runs above average. In 2006, he has -6 fielding runs above average so far.

    Whoever in the Reds organization is telling us that Royce Clayton is an outstanding defensive player is living in the past. Age has seemingly caught up to Clayton, and what was once a very good defensive shortstop is now below average.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

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  3. #2
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    I like Bray. His K/9 in the minors indicate he could very well be a future closer. A-minus.

    Majewski is midrange talent. Nothing to be excited about. B-minus.

    Harris reminds me of Tim Hummel. Hooray. C.

    Clayton will pair with Castro to form the prototypical no-offense, all-hype-defense SS combo by which all future old shortstops with no bat and no range will be compared to. F-minus.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    This is very subjective, however, I think just the presence of three new arms in the bullpen will have a positive effect in the short term on the defense. I'm convinced that after the bullpen collapsed that the defense would tense up whenever the bullpen came in. It seemed that latley once White, Hammond, Merker, Weathers et al took the mound then we'd see all the mental errors and mistakes happening.

    I think having some new blood might help the defense to relax and just play ball instead of fealing like they had to make all star plays all the time because the bullpen was going to be a disaster.

    Of course, if these guys fall apart too it will be a short lived benefit.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Great job, Cyclone, as usual.

    Thanks for not making me read that whole freakin' trade thread.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    I think the Reds would be better off turning SS over to Olmedo rather than Clayton.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    I think the Reds would be better off turning SS over to Olmedo rather than Clayton.



    Clayton is a passing ship in the night.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    I think the Reds would be better off turning SS over to Olmedo rather than Clayton.
    Olmedo isn't a very good defensive SS IMO.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62
    Clayton is a passing ship in the night.
    He's Woody Woodward to Castro's Darrel Chaney

    Transition year

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62
    Clayton is a passing ship in the night.
    I said before we all crashed Redzone that I think Clayton is merely a stopgap. At 36, his best is behind me, but there may be a little something in the tank.

  11. #10
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro
    Olmedo isn't a very good defensive SS IMO.
    he has a bunch more range than Clayton/Lopez

    Clayton only has 3 less errors (14-11) than Lopez.

    Interesting also that for WK to come out looking good Denorfia has to play well because the dealing of Kearns was predicated on Denorfia being ready to produce in the majors.
    Last edited by flyer85; 07-13-2006 at 08:29 PM.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    he has a bunch more range than Clayton/Lopez

    Clayton only has 3 less errors (14-11) than Lopez.

    Interesting also that for WK to come out looking good Denorfia has to play well because the dealing of Kearns was predicated on Denorfia being ready to produce in the majors.
    maybe, but from what I remember, he was also a lot of flash and very little substance. I also refuse to believe he'll hit, depsite his success this year at AAA.

    Your right about Denorfia though, if he tanks it will be bad bad bad.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

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    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    I wish they'd go ahead and move Phillips to SS and let Freel and whomever platoon 2nd.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Just so we can see how good statistics are for judging a trade could someone post the pretrade stats for Phillips and Ross.

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget
    Just so we can see how good statistics are for judging a trade could someone post the pretrade stats for Phillips and Ross.
    The Reds didn't give up anything to acquire either one of those guys.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  16. #15
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Bray is only 23?

    Wow I didn't know that!

    With Majewski only being 26, hopefully they can anchor down the bullpen for years to come.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.


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