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Thread: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

  1. #151
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    O'Neill had more fighting spirit in his eyelashes than Kearns has in his entire body, soul included.

    Poor comparison.
    "Fighting spirit" aside, the Reds had great expectations for O'Neill and gave up on him too soon. There's your potential comparison.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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  3. #152
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    seems odd to use a guy's strength (HR allowed) as a weakness

    me, I didn't like Arroyo's K/9 in 2005. But the Reds seemed to like something about him

  4. #153
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by VR
    I got this nice Red car that I race every week. Heck, it's qualifying time the next few weeks for the big year end finale.

    It's nice and shiny. Big ol' engine in it, I've had it for years. Problem is, my tires. Now, for years I've raced it with worn out tires, hoping my big engine will over compensate. I always start out really well, but by the time the race is half over, I start fading, and fading fast, because my tires just can't handle the stress.

    Well this year is a bit different. I still have one of the best engines in the race, but I actually got some newer back tires. Gosh, it feels really good. I find myself going into the stretch run a lot more confidently. Problem is, my front tires our more worn out than they've ever been. I can have a great start to any race, better than ever with those improved back tires. But I got no confidence my front ones will hold up. They've blown up on me several times, and I've finally decided to get me some new ones.

    Problem is, there's been a tire shortage for some time now. I found some old bald ones in the offseason, but they were worse than the ones I had last year. I talked to some of the other racers, and it turns out they don't have any extra I can get on the cheap. Well, I guess I'll just keep on racing with my old front tires, knowing I'm gonna crash and burn.

    Then a buddy says, "why don't you trade some of that horsepower for a couple newer tires". Well that's a stupid idea. Everyone knows I got the most horsepower in the race, why would I give that up? Then he tells me I can rev up my engine all I want, but if I don't upgrade those tires, it will end in a horrific crash like it has the last 6 years. After talking to those other racers, it seems horsepower is a lot easier to come by than tires......

    Well, we had our first race this weekend. Horsepower was down a bit, but man did those tires work great! I didn't realize it would help, but the suspension is a lot better too! Maybe my buddy is right after all? It's not always about the purdiest car, it's about having all the parts in working order. Even if it doesn't seem like a fair trade.

    Turns out most of the other racers have known this for years.
    Congratulations, you traded your headers for a pair of Michelin Agility P195/70SR14's ($65 apiece at Sears Tire Center).

    Still feel like you got a good deal?
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  5. #154
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner
    Hyperbole, you think?
    Touche.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Just had a thought. This will come off as being smart alec and I don't mean it that way. This is a serrious question.

    Why is it that K's from the offense are no big deal (ie. Dunn, Kearns), yet a pitcher who has a low K/9 number is considered bad?
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  7. #156
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    seems odd to use a guy's strength (HR allowed) as a weakness

    me, I didn't like Arroyo's K/9 in 2005. But the Reds seemed to like something about him
    I think the point is that Majewski's impressive HR/9 rate was earned in the expansive ballparks of the NL East and is likely to increase significantly pitching the majority of his game in HR-friendly parks like GABP, Wrigley, Miller etc. Therefore, Majewski's greatest asset may in fact be fool's gold for the Reds.

  8. #157
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner
    Why do you say this is unlikely? He's young and has room for improvement no? Having Power, Browning and Soto around has had an improvement on other pitchers with either mechanics changes, different approaches or even different pitches altogher.
    Regarding his HR/9 rates likely climbing, see this post earlier that got lost in the Kearns shuffle ...

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=117

    Regarding his K/9 and BB/9 rates, it's history and track record.

    He's yet to log a major league season with a K/9 rate at even 6, and his BB/9 rate has actually been going up since he arrived. His minor league K/9 rate was just over 8, with a minor league BB/9 rate just over 4.

    Now that doesn't mean he can't somewhat improve his K/9 and BB/9 rates in a Reds uniform. The problem, however, is any improvement in those two areas will likely be offset by his BABIP luck returning to normal. His DIPS ERA must be accounted for, even if he's been able to slide under them in the past. Or, even if he's still somehow able to maintain his BABIP luck and slide under his DIPS ERA, he still has to deal with the HR/9 rate issue with his new home park and the ballparks in the wonderful NL Central.

    The odds are just stacked against him.

    That 2.93 ERA over a full season like 2005 is full of lady luck, and without that same lady luck that 2.93 ERA is a pipe dream for it to happen again. Unfortunately that 2.93 ERA is the B+ relief pitcher that Krivsky thought he was getting. Sure, Majewski could pull it off over a one or two month stretch, but it's unlikely he can do it for a full season without the help of lady luck again. Instead, I think we're looking at a high 3/low 4 ERA out of Majewski over the long haul, and that's a C+ relief pitcher (NL reliever average ERA was 4.20 last season).
    Last edited by Cyclone792; 07-17-2006 at 03:48 PM.
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  9. #158
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    seems odd to use a guy's strength (HR allowed) as a weakness
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=117

    EDIT: dsmith421 identified it above.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.

  10. #159
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    I hope Kearns and Lopez do great, and I see no reason why they won't over the next four or five years, but at the same time I see the players that the REDS got in this trading giving us more value over a 7-8 year stretch than Kearns and Lopez will have given us over those same years.

    Again,...

    The FANS of the Cincinnati REDS organization, along with the employees of the organization are extremely fortunate and blessed to have this new ownership and management group in place.

    Happy Days Are Here Again!....year after year after year after year after year.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  11. #160
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner
    Just had a thought. This will come off as being smart alec and I don't mean it that way. This is a serrious question.

    Why is it that K's from the offense are no big deal (ie. Dunn, Kearns), yet a pitcher who has a low K/9 number is considered bad?
    Don't mean to get off topic, but I'll point you to an excellent post by RedsManRick on this very subject just a few weeks ago:

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...4&postcount=37
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

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  12. #161
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner
    Just had a thought. This will come off as being smart alec and I don't mean it that way. This is a serrious question.

    Why is it that K's from the offense are no big deal (ie. Dunn, Kearns), yet a pitcher who has a low K/9 number is considered bad?
    I'm no Sabretician, but from what i've discerned this is what I've got: There are pitchers who can be successful while inducing a high amount of contact (a flyball pitcher in a pitcher's park, or a ground ball pitcher with great infield defense), but the law of averages as it corresponds to BABIP will generally catch up with them. The pitcher who misses more bats will generally be more successful over the long term, even if some pitchers get BABIP lucky for periods of time.

    And it's not that K's are no big deal, it's that they're no bigger deal than a groundout or pop fly. Aside from special circumstances (productive outs, double plays, etc.) a strikeout is but another way for a hitter to make an out. As Dunn shows, a hitter can have a high K rate yet still be very productive. Where you run into trouble is when a hitter has a high K rate as well as low SLG and OBP numbers, because at that point something is obviously flawed--or you're Juan Castro.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  13. #162
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis
    [...] at the same time I see the players that the REDS got in this trading giving us more value over a 7-8 year stretch than Kearns and Lopez will have given us over those same years.

    The FANS of the Cincinnati REDS organization, along with the employees of the organization are extremely fortunate and blessed to have this new ownership and management group in place.
    You're allowed to believe this obviously, but until you can back up this optimism with the same kind of objective analysis Cyclone has posted earlier, or with reliable scouting information, then I'm taking your opinion with a grain of salt.

    I'm glad Castellini is the owner, too. Krivsky had my support until this trade. I am not convinced that "happy days are here again." The Reds have flattered to deceive or flat out sucked for the majority of my life, and until I see a sea change in organizational philosophy (i.e., Narron canned or brought to heel, this obsession with useless 35-year-olds ended, garbage like Mays told to pound salt), I'm not getting my hopes up.

    Is your capitalization of FANS meant to imply that those questioning this trade are not supporters of the ballclub?
    Last edited by dsmith421; 07-17-2006 at 04:11 PM.

  14. #163
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    Congratulations, you traded your headers for a pair of Michelin Agility P195/70SR14's ($65 apiece at Sears Tire Center).

    Still feel like you got a good deal?
    \


    I think I overpaid. But I might finish the race for a change. My pride might suffer a bit, but it will be nice to be in the race with a few laps to go for a change, instead of watching from the pits.

    Turns out those replacement Freel and Denorfia brand headers aren't gonna hurt my car's horsepower too much at all.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  15. #164
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    I think I overpaid. But I might finish the race for a change. My pride might suffer a bit, but it will be nice to be in the race with a few laps to go for a change, instead of watching from the pits.
    No kidding. All this talk of overpaying igonres the bigger issue. We had really nice headers, engines, turbos, etc and it got us nowhere. We were sitting in our garage revving the engine. Big whoppie. And in todays market, you have to overpay to get the pieces to get your car to start moving.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  16. #165
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner
    No kidding. All this talk of overpaying igonres the bigger issue. We had really nice headers, engines, turbos, etc and it got us nowhere. We were sitting in our garage revving the engine. Big whoppie. And in todays market, you have to overpay to get the pieces to get your car to start moving.
    Rationalization. You only have to overpay if you THINK you have to overpay.

    And those tires are not the best quality.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful


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