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Thread: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

  1. #31
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBaron
    I am disappointed by Majewski's K rate. I was hoping for something in at least the 7 or 8 strikeout per nine innings range. 5.32 Ks per nine innings isn't that impressive, especially for a reliever. Once a pitcher drops below 4.5 per nine innings, chances are he won't last long.
    Bray's 6.26 K rate for nine innings is better, but still not great. The 11.44 K rate in the minors was great, and, as Cyclone noted, if he can bump his major league K rate to something approaching his minor league rate, then the Reds may have a valuable pitcher.
    You're definitely not alone in the disappointment with Majewski's K rate. Mix in his control problems, and it's troubling what could occur. Low K rate + High BB rate + Reds defense = loads of baserunners. That's not an outlook I'm thrilled to have.

    Here's an interesting tidbit from Elias on ESPN:

    The Reds acquired two relief pitchers -- Gary Majewski and Bill Bray -- in their multiplayer trade with Washington. Cincinnati's bullpen entered Thursday having allowed 44 home runs and a .293 opponents' batting average this season. Each of those totals was the highest for any relief corps in the National League. Additionally, Reds relievers were averaging 6.03 strikeouts per nine innings, the lowest figure for any bullpen in the National League.
    I wish I wasn't seeing what I just read above, but we're taking a bullpen with the lowest K rate in the NL and adding in a pitcher [Majewski] with an even lower K rate. I do like the fact that Majewski keeps the ball on the ground and is stingy with the long ball, but it remains to be seen how stingy he'll continue to be as he walks out of a pitcher's park and into a home run hitting paradise.
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  3. #32
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    2006 BABIP:

    Majewski: .262
    Bray: .314

    2005 BABIP:

    Majewski: .288

    2006 DIPS:

    Majewski: 4.33 (1.21 DIPS Rate)
    Bray: 3.98 (1.02 DIPS Rate)

    2005 DIPS:

    Majewski: 3.79 (1.29 DIPS Rate)

    PECOTA Projected PERA: PERA is a pitcher's ERA as estimated from his peripheral statistics (EqH9, EqHR9, EqBB9, EqK9). Because it is not sensitive to the timing of batting events, PERA is less subject to luck than ERA, and is a better predictor of ERA going-forward than ERA itself. Like the rest of a pitcher's equivalent stats, his PERA is calibrated to an ideal league with an average PERA of 4.50

    2006 Majewski: 4.28 PERA
    2007 Majewski: 4.42 PERA
    2008 Majewski: 4.48 PERA
    2009 Majewski: 4.17 PERA
    2010 Majewski: 4.32 PERA

    Results for Bray are Minor League Equivalents based on his minor league performance.

    2006 Bray: 5.11 PERA
    2007 Bray: 4.90 PERA
    2008 Bray: 4.21 PERA
    2009 Bray: 4.74 PERA
    2010 Bray: 4.56 PERA

    PECOTA Projected Wins Above Replacement Player: Wins Above Replacement Player, level 1. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season.

    2006 Majewski: 1.3 WARP
    2007 Majewski: 1.2 WARP
    2008 Majewski: 1.2 WARP
    2009 Majewski: 1.1 WARP
    2010 Majewski: 1.0 WARP

    2006 Bray: 0.8 WARP
    2007 Bray: 0.7 WARP
    2008 Bray: 1.0 WARP
    2009 Bray: 0.5 WARP
    2010 Bray: 0.8 WARP

    2006 Kearns: 3.8 WARP
    2007 Kearns: 3.9 WARP
    2008 Kearns: 4.1 WARP
    2009 Kearns: 3.6 WARP
    2010 Kearns: 3.5 WARP

    2006 Lopez: 3.5 WARP
    2007 Lopez: 3.6 WARP
    2008 Lopez: 3.6 WARP
    2009 Lopez: 3.5 WARP
    2010 Lopez: 3.1 WARP

    And yes, those WARP numbers include defensive contribution.

    Marginal Value Above Replacement Player: MORP is modelled based on the actual behavior of recent free agent markets, and accounts for non-linearity in the market price of baseball talent (e.g. teams are willing to pay more for one 6-win player than two 3-win players).

    As listed in a player's PECOTA card, a player's MORP includes the major league minimum salary, estimated to be $325,000 for 2006. Further, in a player's Five-Year Forecast, we assume salary inflation of 5% per year through 2010.

    For 2006, a player's MORP is estimated as follows: 485000*WARP + 216000*(WARP^2) + 325000

    2006 Majewski: $1,375,000
    2007 Majewski: $1,300,000
    2008 Majewski: $1,375,000
    2009 Majewski: $1,250,000
    2010 Majewski: $1,200,000

    2006 Bray: $875,000
    2007 Bray: $775,000
    2008 Bray: $1,075,000
    2009 Bray: $750,000
    2010 Bray: $1,075,000

    2006 Kearns: $5,350,000
    2007 Kearns: $5,900,000
    2008 Kearns: $6,500,000
    2009 Kearns: $5,625,000
    2010 Kearns: $5,625,000

    2006 Lopez: $4,600,000
    2007 Lopez: $5,125,000
    2008 Lopez: $5,325,000
    2009 Lopez: $5,475,000
    2010 Lopez: $4,825,000

    Now let's add that all up...

    Kearns + Lopez: $54,350,000
    Majewski + Bray: $11,050,000

    And here's the combined projected WARP:

    Kearns + Lopez: +36.2 WARP
    Majewski + Bray: +9.6 WARP

    Yeah. That's right. Over the next five years, the Reds have given up potentially 26.6 WARP and over $40 million dollars of projected value in this deal. That's a projection of over 5 Wins per season. Estimate, the Reds just lost about 4 Wins per season versus the league average. Worst thing is that Kearns' WARP projections have him at a high of 500 PA through 2010. He pulls 600 PA for those seasons and we're back at a five Win gap. Bill Bray could become Billy Wagner and he wouldn't make that up.

    Probability tells us they just traded two productive starting MLB players for the equivalent of the decent versions of Kent Mercker and Dennys Reyes plus the opportunity to coin-flip. Consistent, productive, high-level MLB relief pitching may be expensive but neither Majewski or Bray are that. Equitable relief pitchers are available in the offseason for a much much lower price. Brendan Harris offers very little. Royce Clayton is a Tony Womack who plays on the other side of Second Base. The A-ball pitcher is an 1% chance in what should have been a no-brainer return for the Reds with a good GM at the helm.

    Wayne Krivsky (and Bob Castellini) just pullled their pants down to let every other GM know they can be had and had good. To properly evaluate this trade we have to create levels of stupid. The Reds lost wins with this return. They got nothing to secure the future. They failed to maximize their return on the last two MLB chips they can reasonably trade. They wanted to improve the bullpen. Fine. But they did it at a Run value loss which equates a Win value loss. They wanted to improve the defense but didn't.

    I've stated before that I wouldn't yet pin Krivsky as a two-dimensional thinker in a three-dimensional world. Well, this one clinches it and I'm not sure he's even at a two-dimensional level. This trade is the equivalent of selling your house so that you can afford to re-shingle your garage.

    Action for action's sake is just as crippling as what Dan O'Brien did. In this case, it's even worse.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  4. #33
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    I'm sorry Steel but Clayton is a veteran who knows how to play the game and makes the routine play, Jerry and Wayne told me so.

    I'm thirsty, please pass the kool-aid.
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  5. #34
    So Long Uncle Joe BoydsOfSummer's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Code:
    1) The Reds traded RF Austin Kearns, SS Felipe Lopez and minor league P Ryan Wagner to the Nationals for Ps Gary Majewski and Bill Bray, SS Royce Clayton, INF Brendan Harris and minor league P Daryl Thompson.
    
    KEARNS
    YEAR  AGE RCAA   OBA  SLG   OPS   OWP    RC/G  AVG   HR  RBI   SB   G   TEAM
    2004   24   -4  .321  .419  .740  .443   4.30  .230   9   32    2   64  Reds         
    2005   25   -2  .333  .452  .785  .483   5.19  .240  18   67    0  112  Reds         
    2006   26    2  .351  .492  .843  .521   5.63  .274  16   50    7   87  Reds         
    CAR         23  .358  .468  .826  .543   5.80  .267  71  263   20  452 
    LG AVG       0  .340  .431  .771  .500   5.14  .269  51  209   27 
    POS AVG     23  .351  .458  .808  .541   5.66  .271  63  236   28 
    
    LOPEZ
    YEAR  AGE RCAA   OBA  SLG   OPS   OWP    RC/G  AVG   HR  RBI   SB   G   TEAM
    2004   24   -2  .314  .405  .719  .475   4.61  .242   7   31    1   79  Reds         
    2005   25   13  .352  .486  .838  .563   6.19  .291  23   85   15  148  Reds         
    2006   26   -1  .355  .394  .749  .489   5.26  .268   9   30   23   85  Reds         
    CAR        -18  .329  .416  .744  .467   4.85  .259  54  216   56  505 
    LG AVG       0  .338  .431  .770  .500   5.12  .268  59  246   31 
    POS AVG    -37  .322  .398  .720  .433   4.45  .266  39  199   47 
    
    WAGNER
    YEAR AGE RSAA  ERA     G  GS   IP    SO   SO/9 BR/9   W   L   SV  NW  NL  TEAM
    2003 20    6   1.66   17   0   21.2   25 10.38 10.38   2   0   0   2   0  Reds         
    2004 21   -4   4.70   49   0   51.2   37  6.45 15.33   3   2   0   2   3  Reds         
    2005 22   -8   6.11   42   0   45.2   39  7.69 15.18   3   2   0   2   3  Reds         
    CAREER    -6   4.69  108   0  119    101  7.64 14.37   8   4   0   6   6 
    LG AVG     0   4.28           119     88  6.66 12.80   7   7 
    
    MAJEWSKI
    YEAR AGE RSAA  ERA     G  GS   IP    SO   SO/9 BR/9   W   L   SV  NW  NL  TEAM
    2004 24    1   3.86   16   0   21     12  5.14 15.00   0   1   1   1   0  Expos        
    2005 25   10   2.93   79   0   86     50  5.23 12.98   4   4   1   5   3  Nationals    
    2006 26   10   3.58   46   0   55.1   34  5.53 12.20   3   2   0   3   2  Nationals    
    CAREER    21   3.27  141   0  162.1   96  5.32 12.97   7   7   2   9   5 
    LG AVG     0   4.36           162.1  119  6.60 12.91   9   9 
    
    BRAY
    YEAR AGE RSAA  ERA     G  GS   IP    SO   SO/9 BR/9   W   L   SV  NW  NL  TEAM
    2006       3   3.91   19   0   23     16  6.26 13.30   1   1   0   1   1  Nationals    
    CAREER     3   3.91   19   0   23     16  6.26 13.30   1   1   0   1   1 
    LG AVG     0   4.57            23     17  6.58 13.18   1   1 
    
    CLAYTON
    YEAR  AGE RCAA   OBA  SLG   OPS   OWP    RC/G  AVG   HR  RBI   SB   G   TEAM
    2004   34  -31  .338  .397  .735  .348   4.48  .279   8   54   10  146  Rockies      
    2005   35  -25  .320  .351  .670  .336   3.64  .270   2   44   13  143  Diamondbacks 
    2006   36  -22  .315  .348  .663  .285   3.65  .269   0   27    8   87  Nationals    
    CAR       -310  .313  .369  .682  .349   3.75  .259 107  698  223 1981 
    LG AVG       0  .340  .427  .766  .500   5.10  .270 224  972  147 
    POS AVG   -156  .326  .386  .712  .425   4.38  .266 133  759  173 
    
    Clayton ranks 5th on the all time list for worst career RCAA--
    
    1    Ski Melillo                -355   
    2    Tommy Thevenow             -351   
    3    Neifi Perez                -340   
    4    Bill Bergen                -312   
    5    Royce Clayton              -310   
    6    Tim Foli                   -309   
    7    Larry Bowa                 -307   
    8    Alfredo Griffin            -306   
    T9   Don Kessinger              -305   
    T9   Ozzie Guillen              -305   
    
    HARRIS
    YEAR  AGE RCAA   OBA  SLG   OPS   OWP    RC/G  AVG   HR  RBI   SB   G   TEAM
    2004   23   -5  .222  .271  .493  .178   2.20  .169   1    3    0   23  Cubs/Expos
    2005   24    0  .400  .778 1.178  .353   3.38  .333   1    3    0    4  Nationals    
    2006   25   -3  .333  .313  .646  .243   3.24  .250   0    2    0   17  Nationals    
    CAR         -8  .275  .330  .605  .214   2.63  .210   2    8    0   44 
    LG AVG       0  .341  .437  .778  .500   5.24  .270   4   14    2 
    POS AVG     -1  .337  .413  .749  .465   4.88  .274   3   12    3
    0 Value Over Replacement Poster


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  6. #35
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Clayton doesn't even have the dreads anymore, that would have at least made him interestign to watch.

    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  7. #36
    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Kearns for Bray, or Lopez for Bray---I could live with that trade I guess. Kearns and Lopez for Bray is too steep, and that's what the trade probably comes down to, in terms of any value the Reds received.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  8. #37
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Majewski: 0-5 in save situations. He'll fit right in!
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  9. #38
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Kearns for Bray, or Lopez for Bray---I could live with that trade I guess. Kearns and Lopez for Bray is too steep, and that's what the trade probably comes down to, in terms of any value the Reds received.
    Or Kerns for Magic and Bray,
    Lopez for two prospects and a stop-gap SS
    Wagner as a toss in
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  10. #39
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    The more I read evaluations about this deal, the worse it looks. Particularly considering the numbers Steel posted above, this is a fleecing the likes of which haven't been seen around these parts for some time. I didn't like the deal when I read about it yesterday, and I dislike it even more now.

    I posted this in the other thread, but it bears repeating: what an absolute squandering of talent this deal was. This may not be Frank Robinson-bad, but it's up there.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  11. #40
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Clayton ranks 5th on the all time list for worst career RCAA--
    and the Reds are going to give him ample opportunity to move higher.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  12. #41
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    this is a fleecing the likes of which haven't been seen around these parts for some time.
    which is The Hardball Times take on the trade. They felt you had to go back to Kazmir/Zambrano to find such an obviously lopsided trade.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  13. #42
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    I posted this in the other thread, but it bears repeating: what an absolute squandering of talent this deal was.
    It was a waste of resources that failed to address the biggest problem this team is likely to encounter in the 2nd half(the 4/5 rotation spots). How does WK fill those when he realizes he still doesn't have a playoff team? There is a good chance Dunn could be gone by the trading deadline.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  14. #43
    Member CrackerJack's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    1-0 post trade with 9 runs scored. Offense didn't miss a beat with the mighty Castro. (alright so normally they would've only scored 5-7 runs)

    People are acting as though finding bats to replace the inconsistent Lopez and Kearns are going to be a huge challenge.

    I think Denorfia and eventually Votto will do just that ultimately. Then there's Bruce down the road and any other bat they can find in the off-season if necessary.

    If reliable/decent/good middle relievers are so easy to find - why haven't the Reds picked up any the last two seasons, and were relegated to rushing Wagner and signing hopeless guys at the end of their ropes?

    Obviously the market for Lopez and Kearns wasn't that great - finding bats to fill in their inconsistent production and Lopez' bad defense shouldn't be nearly as much of a challenge as acquiring 3 young pitchers in their early-mid 20's who still have some upside and decent track records.

    The Reds acquired 5 more players that can be flipped for more as well, when packaged with anyone else they can shed from the failed DanO/Bowden era.

    I would also like to know how many middle relievers have K rates over 8, or even 7? Wouldn't they be closers or starters if so? They're middle relievers for a reason. If I'm wrong there on a large scale - please correct me with #'s!

    Sure the Reds overpaid, but it's not as if they sold the farm for Felipe in the first place. I refuse to overreact to this because we didn't get Willis for the almighty Kearns and Lopez.

  15. #44
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    There is a good chance Dunn could be gone by the trading deadline.
    I keep reading that on here, but I highly doubt it. He's essentially signed to a very reasonable contract through 2008, and he's the only consistently dependable source of power on this team. This offense would plummet like a rock if Kearns, Lopez AND Dunn were removed.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  16. #45
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    I keep reading that on here, but I highly doubt it. He's essentially signed to a very reasonable contract through 2008, and he's the only consistently dependable source of power on this team. This offense would plummet like a rock if Kearns, Lopez AND Dunn were removed.
    this organization seems to place the most value on pitching and defense. Dunn doesn't qualify in either area. Lopez and Kearns both had reasonable contracts as well. They certainly aren't going to get any pitching for the likes of Larue, Aurilia, Jr, etc.

    For WK and Narron it is not about offense, it's pitching and defense.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand


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