Turn Off Ads?
Page 4 of 14 FirstFirst 12345678 ... LastLast
Results 46 to 60 of 205

Thread: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

  1. #46
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    princeton, nj
    Posts
    9,482

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    He's essentially signed to a very reasonable contract through 2008.
    exactly, as are the new relievers. The trade is a loss of talent for us, but the dollar per talent ratio drops, the replacements will shore up holes (while creating new ones...) and if Bill Bray is the Ultimate Answer, then things'll be OK.

    Jr's contract is less reasonable, but he does have value that goes beyond his on-field contributions.

    Eric Milton, OTOH...

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #47
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,069

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    They better go out and spend some real money on FA at the end of the year.

  4. #48
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Newburgh, IN
    Posts
    3,458

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    this organization seems to place the most value on pitching and defense. Dunn doesn't qualify in either area. Lopez and Kearns both had reasonable contracts as well. They certainly aren't going to get any pitching for the likes of Larue, Aurilia, Jr, etc.

    For WK and Narron it is not about offense, it's pitching and defense.
    I think this sealed the deal for Dunn NOT to be dealt. Say Dunn is gone and Griffey goes on the DL. Can you see this line up. EE would be our big power source. I think they will deal with Dunn's defense (which lately seems to have been better) for his offense. He's plate coverage, ability to get on, and hit long HRs has even more value with Kearns gone. If defense was such a high priority they would have kept Kearns. He was our best defensive OF. They pretty much played out what they can, but there comes a time when you have to go with what you have. With Deno and Bruce we have some OF coming up and one was expendable, but not both. IMO!
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  5. #49
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    south of the border
    Posts
    23,858

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds1
    I think this sealed the deal for Dunn NOT to be dealt. Say Dunn is gone and Griffey goes on the DL. Can you see this line up.
    Yes, much better defensively. I'm sure the Reds will win 1-0 or 2-1.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  6. #50
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Newburgh, IN
    Posts
    3,458

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    Yes, much better defensively. I'm sure the Reds will win 1-0 or 2-1.
    Well, yes. I know, but you can't have all defense. We need a guy to rake and if Dunn ever makes contact and strikes out less and becomes a .270 BA and does better with RISP he really could be a super star. I think he's value is up now with Kearns gone. Kearns has some talent, but someone had to go and one thing Dunn has over Kearns is Dunn is never injured.

    Do you agree?
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  7. #51
    Hisssssssss Yachtzee's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Land of the Lost
    Posts
    7,249

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    For WK and Narron it is not about offense, it's pitching and defense.
    Well, it must be mediocre pitching and overrated defense, based on Krivsky's latest moves. Time will tell with this trade. I have a feeling that if it doesn't work out, the only trading chips they have left to net some top-notch talent to improve the team are Dunn, Arroyo and Harang.
    Burn down the disco. Hang the blessed DJ. Because the music that he constantly plays, it says nothing to me about my life.

  8. #52
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Posts
    1,338

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    LAbner made a good point that just by having some new relief pitchers on the mound the infield won't be tense, expect the worst and be error prone. Also remember when comparing infielder error stats they're directly related to the pitching staff whether it's the catcher or anyone on the dirt.

  9. #53
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Posts
    5,872

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    exactly, as are the new relievers. The trade is a loss of talent for us, but the dollar per talent ratio drops, the replacements will shore up holes (while creating new ones...) and if Bill Bray is the Ultimate Answer, then things'll be OK.
    Steel posted some very interesting stats in another thread discussing the drop in run production taht can be expected with the loss of Lopez and Kearns, and the addition of Majewski and Bray. It's not even close.

    This trade helps our bullpen, but it kills our offense. And it places a LOT of reliance on the ability of Denorfia to produce at a high level. I'm not sure that's going to happen.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  10. #54
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    princeton, nj
    Posts
    9,482

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    This trade helps our bullpen, but it kills our offense.
    I'm hoping for hurt and not killed. The offense had to suffer. The pitching had to change, both now and in the future. I like that we didn't get 3 month pitchers. Watch Bowden-- we know how long his pitching acquisition will stay.

    color me intrigued by the whole thing. What we had couldn't have worked, and what Krivsky has done until now has worked out better.

    the risk is that we'll wind up still having bad pitching while messing up the offense. I don't disagree that could be the case.

    but other than dealing WMP, which was also the right trade, we've kept the right players for the market and for the ballpark. too bad we didn't keep that other Ross guy.

    the Reds FO looks brave, decisive, creative, pragmatic, and unconventional. they're heading in the right direction-- unless they can't recover from the offensive wounds.

    medic?

  11. #55
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2001
    Location
    Melbourne, FL
    Posts
    4,837

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Steel, your post on the previous page is terrific, as always. But there's one important point that needs to be factored in -- service time. Projecting a guy's value five years out is useful, but anything beyond the free-agency threshold (unless signed beyond that) can't be carried on the club's talent ledger as an asset.
    Not all who wander are lost

  12. #56
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,911

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    This trade, to me, reeks of trading guys for what you think they're worth, rather than for what they are worth to the team to whom you are trading them.

    The failure in this trade is not who we got. I think we can say that Deno/Freel can make up the loss of Kearns and that the improvement to the bullpen maybe makes up what Lopez could do. In fact, let's go way out on an assumption limb and say the team is as good right now as it was 3 days ago.

    The problem is who we DIDN'T get. Kearns/Lopez were our two big trading chits. The hopes of landing an Ervin Santana or other true impact guy were tied up in our limited, but valuable, tradable assets.

    This deal, while arguably a pretty decent talent loss, hurt us more in who we are now unable to pursue, more than it did in terms of our chances to win today.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #57
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Posts
    5,872

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    I'm hoping for hurt and not killed. The offense had to suffer. The pitching had to change, both now and in the future. I like that we didn't get 3 month pitchers.
    With Kearns and Lopez being dealt, we certainly should have been able to get more than 3 month pitchers. We should have been able to get more than majewski and Bray as well.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  14. #58
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2001
    Location
    Melbourne, FL
    Posts
    4,837

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick
    The problem is who we DIDN'T get. Kearns/Lopez were our two big trading chits. The hopes of landing an Ervin Santana or other true impact guy were tied up in our limited, but valuable, tradable assets.
    That was my thought too, but I have to consider the possibility that our opinions of Kearns' and Lopez' trade value may not be what it is in the real world.

    The reason teams love young players is because they can keep them around for awhile and they're cheap relative to paying for the same talent on the free-agent market. Problem is, by the time a guy hits his walk year he can score about as much dough in arbitration as if he was actually on the market. The true tipping point nowadays separating "cheap" players from "market value" players is really five years of service, not six. (Edited due to uncertainty over service time...) They are not free agents, but they're soon to be as expensive as comparable veterans, and that makes them worth less in trade. It also means the Reds, should the deal completely blow up, have an out -- go shopping with the money they would have spent on Lopez and Kearns.
    Last edited by IslandRed; 07-14-2006 at 05:49 PM.
    Not all who wander are lost

  15. #59
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Posts
    796

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    I'm hoping for hurt and not killed. The offense had to suffer. The pitching had to change, both now and in the future. I like that we didn't get 3 month pitchers. Watch Bowden-- we know how long his pitching acquisition will stay.

    color me intrigued by the whole thing. What we had couldn't have worked, and what Krivsky has done until now has worked out better.

    the risk is that we'll wind up still having bad pitching while messing up the offense. I don't disagree that could be the case.

    but other than dealing WMP, which was also the right trade, we've kept the right players for the market and for the ballpark. too bad we didn't keep that other Ross guy.

    the Reds FO looks brave, decisive, creative, pragmatic, and unconventional. they're heading in the right direction-- unless they can't recover from the offensive wounds.

    medic?
    This move is nothing but GM hubris, so I think everyone is intrigued. What is interesting is that the move has been universally panned (rightfully so, in my opinion), and when a big move like this is universally panned, it rarely turns out as badly as everyone expected. . . Like drafting Joe Mauer over Prior. . . Or trading Rob Bell for Ruben Mateo. . . Or drafting Edgerrin James instead of Rickey Williams.

    I am less worried about the offensive dropoff than most. At the All-Star break, the Reds had scored ~40 fewer runs than predicted by the runs created formula. The Reds' offense had been highly inefficient in the first half. That means one of two things: either the offense has been extremely unlucky at converting baserunners into runs (most likely), or the high-BB, high-HR, low-BA offense looked better on paper than it really was (is?). Either way, the Reds have the luxury of giving up some runs without negative repercussions in the runs scored column.

  16. #60
    "So Fla Red"
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    South Florida - The Real Humidor
    Posts
    5,059

    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    2006 BABIP:


    Results for Bray are Minor League Equivalents based on his minor league performance.

    2006 Bray: 5.11 PERA
    2007 Bray: 4.90 PERA
    2008 Bray: 4.21 PERA
    2009 Bray: 4.74 PERA
    2010 Bray: 4.56 PERA

    PECOTA Projected Wins Above Replacement Player: Wins Above Replacement Player, level 1. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season.

    2006 Majewski: 1.3 WARP
    2007 Majewski: 1.2 WARP
    2008 Majewski: 1.2 WARP
    2009 Majewski: 1.1 WARP
    2010 Majewski: 1.0 WARP

    2006 Bray: 0.8 WARP
    2007 Bray: 0.7 WARP
    2008 Bray: 1.0 WARP
    2009 Bray: 0.5 WARP
    2010 Bray: 0.8 WARP
    Steel -- Interesting, but why are Bray's projections so low? His K/9 and K/BB minor numbers look fantastic and he's up in the bigs and effective and he just turned 23 last month.

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    2006 Kearns: 3.8 WARP
    2007 Kearns: 3.9 WARP
    2008 Kearns: 4.1 WARP
    2009 Kearns: 3.6 WARP
    2010 Kearns: 3.5 WARP

    2006 Lopez: 3.5 WARP
    2007 Lopez: 3.6 WARP
    2008 Lopez: 3.6 WARP
    2009 Lopez: 3.5 WARP
    2010 Lopez: 3.1 WARP

    And yes, those WARP numbers include defensive contribution.

    Marginal Value Above Replacement Player: MORP is modelled based on the actual behavior of recent free agent markets, and accounts for non-linearity in the market price of baseball talent (e.g. teams are willing to pay more for one 6-win player than two 3-win players).

    As listed in a player's PECOTA card, a player's MORP includes the major league minimum salary, estimated to be $325,000 for 2006. Further, in a player's Five-Year Forecast, we assume salary inflation of 5% per year through 2010.

    For 2006, a player's MORP is estimated as follows: 485000*WARP + 216000*(WARP^2) + 325000

    2006 Majewski: $1,375,000
    2007 Majewski: $1,300,000
    2008 Majewski: $1,375,000
    2009 Majewski: $1,250,000
    2010 Majewski: $1,200,000

    2006 Bray: $875,000
    2007 Bray: $775,000
    2008 Bray: $1,075,000
    2009 Bray: $750,000
    2010 Bray: $1,075,000

    2006 Kearns: $5,350,000
    2007 Kearns: $5,900,000
    2008 Kearns: $6,500,000
    2009 Kearns: $5,625,000
    2010 Kearns: $5,625,000

    2006 Lopez: $4,600,000
    2007 Lopez: $5,125,000
    2008 Lopez: $5,325,000
    2009 Lopez: $5,475,000
    2010 Lopez: $4,825,000

    Now let's add that all up...

    Kearns + Lopez: $54,350,000
    Majewski + Bray: $11,050,000

    And here's the combined projected WARP:

    Kearns + Lopez: +36.2 WARP
    Majewski + Bray: +9.6 WARP

    Yeah. That's right. Over the next five years, the Reds have given up potentially 26.6 WARP and over $40 million dollars of projected value in this deal. That's a projection of over 5 Wins per season. Estimate, the Reds just lost about 4 Wins per season versus the league average. Worst thing is that Kearns' WARP projections have him at a high of 500 PA through 2010. He pulls 600 PA for those seasons and we're back at a five Win gap. Bill Bray could become Billy Wagner and he wouldn't make that up.
    Interesting, but factor in the following;

    1) 60% of the 2006 production of Kearns/Lopez was already realized by the Reds.

    2) Factor out Kearns value after 2008 season. Factor out Lopez's value after the 2008 (and maybe 2007) seasons.

    3) 5% salary inflation -- maybe I don't get what you are saying... Felipe and Kearns salaries may triple from now until 2008 -- with end of service time benefits as MLB's idiotic salary escalation starts to really kick in for service years 5-6. Kearns will be a 4M guy in 2007 and 6-7M in 2008. Lopez a 4-5M guy in 2007 and a 6-8M guy in 2008. 2007 is the year they begin to be no longer underpaid to market. 2008 (maybe 2007 for Lopez) is when they begin to be overpaid to market -- I'd rather their first LTC albatross be given out by someone else. And safe to say Bowden (unless he gets canned before then) will be the one to give them that payday -- be afraid Nats fans be very afraid

    4) Kearns career high is 387 AB's, assuming him at 500AB for the duration is a major leap.

    5) Bray is under Reds control until 2012, Maj until 2011. Dirt cheap until 2010.


    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    Consistent, productive, high-level MLB relief pitching may be expensive but neither Majewski or Bray are that.
    Now you're getting subjective... Maj has been a career 3 ERA guy and sub .680 OPS pitcher across his 1.5 years of service. His career OPS is about 150 pts lower than Coffey's with a higher K/IP ratio in the bigs. Same age...

    Bray -- Key man in the deal for the Reds (Hope the Reds scouts are right). Just turned 23, great minor numbers in K/9 and K/BB. Small sample size but the early returns look like he could be a gem. Lefty, under control until 2012. Very interesting.

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    [
    Equitable relief pitchers are available in the offseason for a much much lower price.
    Maybe old vets demanding multi-year contracts. Or DFA fodder willing to do one year deals like what usually passes through Cincinnati. Low service time and productive relievers don't grow on trees -- and there aren't any at the upper levels of the Reds minor league system.

    This is one interesting trade and I like the overall direction -- the return is very debatable. Bray needs to become a stud setup man at minimum and Maj needs to keep being a Scott Sullivan rubber-arm for this to turn out well for the Reds.
    Last edited by oregonred; 07-16-2006 at 05:41 PM.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25