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Thread: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

  1. #61
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by oregonred
    Steel -- Interesting, but why are Bray's projections so low? His K/9 and K/BB minor numbers look fantastic and he's up in the bigs and effective and he just turned 23 last month.
    Bill Bray 2004-2005: 9.57 H/9 IP, 2.68 BB/9 IP, 10.53 K/9 IP, 0.96 HR/9 IP
    Bill Bray 2006 (AAA): 7.39 H/9 IP, 2.56 BB/9 IP, 12.78 K/9 IP, 1.42 HR/9 IP

    Small sample size, yes (78.2 IP). But the HR rates are unacceptable. He throws reasonably hard, but not exceptionally hard. If HR rates are high, I need to see a dominant fastball. I don't.

    Interesting, but factor in the following;

    1) 60% of the 2006 production of Kearns/Lopez was already realized by the Reds.
    Ditto for the pitchers being acquired.

    2) Factor out Kearns value after 2008 season. Factor out Lopez's value after the 2008 (and maybe 2007) seasons.
    Assume worst-case scenario and you're still left with a huge value gap.

    3) 5% salary inflation -- maybe I don't get what you are saying... Felipe and Kearns salaries may triple from now until 2008 -- with end of service time benefits as MLB's idiotic salary escalation starts to really kick in for service years 5-6. Kearns will be a 4M guy in 2007 and 6-7M in 2008. Lopez a 4-5M guy in 2007 and a 6-8M guy in 2008. 2007 is the year they begin to be no longer underpaid to market. 2008 (maybe 2007 for Lopez) is when they begin to be overpaid to market -- I'd rather their first LTC albatross be given out by someone else. And safe to say Bowden (unless he gets canned before then) will be the one to give them that payday -- be afraid Nats fans be very afraid
    So you either deal them for more value this season (or offseason) or at the point in time when they're going to be truly expensive while still turning a Run value and dollar value win over what the Reds got. It's highly doubtful the Reds could possibly have received less at any point in time in the future through their walk year(s).

    4) Kearns career high is 387 AB's, assuming him at 500AB for the duration is a major leap.
    Austin Kearns spent portions of 2002 and 2005 in the minors. We tend to forget that. He's been injured some, but none of it is related to an isolated issue. Freak stuff. Staph infection in his finger. Ray King sat on him. Unless we can project that kind of stuff to frequently pop up in the future, I see no reason that a 500 AB projection- at minimum- isn't reasonable. And another thing we tend to forget is that, until recently, when he's been healthy he's had to deal with an OF logjam that's robbed him of some number of PA.

    5) Bray is under Reds control until 2012, Maj until 2011. Dirt cheap until 2010.
    Other relievers acquired for less would be just as cheap and could project to be with the team as long. I'm seeing a lot of justification attempts based around this point and an erroneous assumption that money saved by trading Kearns and Lopez are "value-added" items. They're not.

    Now you're getting subjective... Maj has been a career 3 ERA guy and sub .680 OPS pitcher across his 1.5 years of service. His career OPS is about 150 pts lower than Coffey's with a higher K/IP ratio in the bigs. Same age...
    No, I'm not being subjective. There are a couple things we must understand.

    1. Majewski's DIPS ERA rate has been well over 1.00 for two years now. He's been ERA-lucky; mostly because he's also been BABIP-lucky.

    2. Relief pitchers record ERA numbers that are around half a Run lower than Starting Pitchers. We need to adjust our views on good v. average v. bad accordingly. If a RP's ERA is 3.50 and that ERA matches his DIPS and his BABIP is average and his HR rate is good, he's still pretty near a 4.00 ERA. I suspect this has a lot to do with partial Inning usage patterns. Regardless, it's an item we have to look at.

    When the trade went down, Majewski's DIPS rate was over 1.20 (120%+ of his ERA). Since then, Majewski's DIPS rate has gone down (1.06) because his ERA has risen (now at 3.97) while his DIPS rate hasn't changed. His BABIP luck is equalizing and his ERA is now a more true reflection of how he's actually pitched this year. Knowing that, we're able to get a clearer picture on exactly how close to average Majewski is this season. On the bright side, Majewski produces decent HR rates. But his low K/9 and higher BB/9 rates don't project him to get a whole lot better.

    The outlook might be better had the Reds actually improved the team defense when acquiring him, but that would still be more about the defense than it would be about Majewski.

    Bray -- Key man in the deal for the Reds (Hope the Reds scouts are right). Just turned 23, great minor numbers in K/9 and K/BB. Small sample size but the early returns look like he could be a gem. Lefty, under control until 2012. Very interesting.
    Exceptionally risky unless he projected a Billy Wagner-level fastball or somehow finds a way to keep the longball from being an issue.

    Maybe old vets demanding multi-year contracts. Or DFA fodder willing to do one year deals like what usually passes through Cincinnati. Low service time and productive relievers don't grow on trees -- and there aren't any at the upper levels of the Reds minor league system.
    If Krivsky had actually found near-lock level shutdown relievers, this one might be more palatable. But he didn't. He found slightly above average and a whole lotta' risk. I understand why folks are slathering that dish with ketchup right now, but I'd rather it taste good either with or without condiments.

    This is one interesting trade and I like the overall direction -- the return is very debatable. Bray needs to become a stud setup man at minimum and Maj needs to keep being a Scott Sullivan rubber-arm for this to turn out well for the Reds.
    They need to become that just to get this deal to slightly below average. And I dislike the direction in it's entirety. It's a two dimensional move in a three dimensional world.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  3. #62
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by D-Man
    I am less worried about the offensive dropoff than most. At the All-Star break, the Reds had scored ~40 fewer runs than predicted by the runs created formula. The Reds' offense had been highly inefficient in the first half. That means one of two things: either the offense has been extremely unlucky at converting baserunners into runs (most likely), or the high-BB, high-HR, low-BA offense looked better on paper than it really was (is?). Either way, the Reds have the luxury of giving up some runs without negative repercussions in the runs scored column.
    I think that these are fine points. While I anticipate that next year's lineup will be improved, I still see Royce Clayton or Juan Castro in this year's.

    But if Adam Dunn grows up, it'll be worth it.

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    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    I think that these are fine points. While I anticipate that next year's lineup will be improved, I still see Royce Clayton or Juan Castro in this year's.

    But if Adam Dunn grows up, it'll be worth it.
    I don't have a problem with trading Kearns to help Adam Dunn grow up. I have a problem with trading Kearns for mediocre middle relief.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    I don't have a problem with trading Kearns to help Adam Dunn grow up. I have a problem with trading Kearns for mediocre middle relief.
    I have a problem with Kearns never even approaching his ceiling. That's the real tragedy for the Reds.

    Maybe Dunn will.

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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    I have a problem with Kearns never even approaching his ceiling.
    In a season where he's been healthy and has the position to himself.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner
    In a season where he's been healthy and has the position to himself.
    His OPS was around .850 -- 10th best among qualifying MLB right fielders and 28th best among all outfielders.

    And he's only 26 years old. What's the expectation -- 1.000 OPS before his 27th birthday?

    To hear some people talk, you'd think he was past his prime. In reality, his best years are still ahead of him.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    To hear some people talk, you'd think he was past his prime. In reality, his best years are still ahead of him.
    If all works out as planned. Especially since people have been saying this for quite a while now.

    I guess the fact that the two pitchers we got are also very young and have many years ahead of them to improve is forgotten by most. AK is destined to improve and have his best years, yet these kids have no room for improvement and don't have any years ahead of them.

    Doesn't add up in my book.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  9. #68
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    To hear some people talk, you'd think he was past his prime. In reality, his best years are still ahead of him.
    That's true, but he's also going to start getting more cash too, wasn't the goal to get him to out perform his contract (Like Dunn did) If he's going to that this year he'll have to get cooking, but if he is getting 4 million next year is that something that the Reds need to have to deal with? Or should they use him to plug up a gaping hole?

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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    To hear some people talk, you'd think he was past his prime. In reality, his best years are still ahead of him.
    I agree, but it wasn't happening for him here, and he won't be cheap during those years. Reds had to choose, and chose Dunn. Good choice, IMO.

    a few years back, I really thought that he'd be an MVP candidate a couple of times by now. That's too much to ask, of course, but really I'm shocked that he's never even been an all-star.

    the return's not enough, but Krivsky didn't waste Kearns's talent. So far, he's done that on his own.

    and Wayne's been hitting three pointers from deep lately. He picked up an aging righty with a declining K rate, a suspect middle infielder and a neverwas catcher. Maybe he's feeling too cocky, but maybe he's feeling it. He'll miss some, but let him shoot.

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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    That's true, but he's also going to start getting more cash too, wasn't the goal to get him to out perform his contract (Like Dunn did) If he's going to that this year he'll have to get cooking, but if he is getting 4 million next year is that something that the Reds need to have to deal with? Or should they use him to plug up a gaping hole?
    Whether or not the Reds had a hole that needed to be plugged really isn't a point of contention.

    What they plugged it with is, as is the cost paid for the job.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    What they plugged it with is, as is the cost paid for the job.
    Of course it is, but that's being throw aside before the particpants have even made their contribution, all the talk now slides over to the departing bat projections of the Reds and negative possibilities for the new Reds.

    It's reached an apex, it's almost time for the performance to flesh out and the noise to subside about the trade, othewise we're all just running in place.

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    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    I must say, as far as Gary Majewski goes, this is what stands out to me:
    Code:
    
                            K/9    BB/9    K/BB   
    
    Gary Majewski Career   5.39    3.74    1.44
    2006 Reds Bullpen      6.11    3.32    1.84
    The 2006 Reds bullpen has been awful; nobody is disputing that. Part of the bullpen's awfulness has been their inability to strike batters out and their propensity to walk too many batters.

    Gary Majewski strikes out fewer batters and walks more batters than the collective effort of the 2006 Reds Bullpen.

    That's a difficult task to accomplish, but Majewski's accomplished it. And it's a big reason why many others here, myself included, feel that Gary Majewski was overvalued by the Reds' brass in this deal.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

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  14. #73
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792
    Gary Majewski strikes out fewer batters and walks more batters than the collective effort of the 2006 Reds Bullpen.

    That's a difficult task to accomplish, but Majewski's accomplished it. And it's a big reason why many others here, myself included, feel that Gary Majewski was overvalued by the Reds' brass in this deal.
    I got raked across the coals for calling Majewski "very average".
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  15. #74
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    Of course it is, but that's being throw aside before the particpants have even made their contribution, all the talk now slides over to the departing bat projections of the Reds and negative possibilities for the new Reds.

    It's reached an apex, it's almost time for the performance to flesh out and the noise to subside about the trade, othewise we're all just running in place.
    And on the flip side, the trade justification position has slid over to red herrings about the future cost of two productive moveable commodities and money allegedly "saved" for the offseason.

    What the Reds have acquired are two guys who project DIPS rates around 4.00 (and, combined they're above that now). Fine. But the cost was far far too high for what they represent over the @140 IP we might see from those two guys annually (@7-10 Runs saved versus average per season). If those pitchers projected better than that, I'd be the first guy to say it.

    IIRC, you've long advocated not spending big bucks on relief pitching. But when translated to current and future projected Run value and Win value, the Reds just spent big bucks on relief pitching. Sure, we can wait and see how it all plays out, but I'd rather be on top of it in the here and now.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Analysis and Outlook on Majewski, Bray, Harris and Clayton

    from BP on the deal

    Clayton for Lopez is a loss. Although the Reds have a decent pair of alternatives to Kearns in the outfield in Denorfia and Freel, that's still a net loss at the plate, a lost opportunity if Kearns blossoms as much as he can and should, and also costs the Reds the flexibility of having Kearns around to play center after Ken Griffey Jr.'s next breakdown. Will the relievers make up for those losses within this season? No. Career value? Even if both Bray and Majewski are far from eligibility for free agency, two relievers are not as valuable as a quality outfielder and a quality shortstop who, although arbitration-eligible, are also both not about to be free agents. Do the spare bits make up the difference? Absolutely not, not unless Thompson does something more than just pan out. This deal shouldn't have been made by the Reds if it was Kearns without Lopez in the package going to Washington, it's a bit of a toss-up if it's just Lopez without Kearns, and with both in the deal, it's a massive mistake with potentially crippling consequences for the Reds' playoff bid now, as well as to their ability to field a quality lineup in the future.
    The only people that like this deal are interested observers. I haven't found a single impartial observer who likes Reds side of this deal.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand


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