Bill Bray 2004-2005: 9.57 H/9 IP, 2.68 BB/9 IP, 10.53 K/9 IP, 0.96 HR/9 IPOriginally Posted by oregonred
Bill Bray 2006 (AAA): 7.39 H/9 IP, 2.56 BB/9 IP, 12.78 K/9 IP, 1.42 HR/9 IP
Small sample size, yes (78.2 IP). But the HR rates are unacceptable. He throws reasonably hard, but not exceptionally hard. If HR rates are high, I need to see a dominant fastball. I don't.
Ditto for the pitchers being acquired.Interesting, but factor in the following;
1) 60% of the 2006 production of Kearns/Lopez was already realized by the Reds.
Assume worst-case scenario and you're still left with a huge value gap.2) Factor out Kearns value after 2008 season. Factor out Lopez's value after the 2008 (and maybe 2007) seasons.
So you either deal them for more value this season (or offseason) or at the point in time when they're going to be truly expensive while still turning a Run value and dollar value win over what the Reds got. It's highly doubtful the Reds could possibly have received less at any point in time in the future through their walk year(s).3) 5% salary inflation -- maybe I don't get what you are saying... Felipe and Kearns salaries may triple from now until 2008 -- with end of service time benefits as MLB's idiotic salary escalation starts to really kick in for service years 5-6. Kearns will be a 4M guy in 2007 and 6-7M in 2008. Lopez a 4-5M guy in 2007 and a 6-8M guy in 2008. 2007 is the year they begin to be no longer underpaid to market. 2008 (maybe 2007 for Lopez) is when they begin to be overpaid to market -- I'd rather their first LTC albatross be given out by someone else. And safe to say Bowden (unless he gets canned before then) will be the one to give them that payday -- be afraid Nats fans be very afraid
Austin Kearns spent portions of 2002 and 2005 in the minors. We tend to forget that. He's been injured some, but none of it is related to an isolated issue. Freak stuff. Staph infection in his finger. Ray King sat on him. Unless we can project that kind of stuff to frequently pop up in the future, I see no reason that a 500 AB projection- at minimum- isn't reasonable. And another thing we tend to forget is that, until recently, when he's been healthy he's had to deal with an OF logjam that's robbed him of some number of PA.4) Kearns career high is 387 AB's, assuming him at 500AB for the duration is a major leap.
Other relievers acquired for less would be just as cheap and could project to be with the team as long. I'm seeing a lot of justification attempts based around this point and an erroneous assumption that money saved by trading Kearns and Lopez are "value-added" items. They're not.5) Bray is under Reds control until 2012, Maj until 2011. Dirt cheap until 2010.
No, I'm not being subjective. There are a couple things we must understand.Now you're getting subjective... Maj has been a career 3 ERA guy and sub .680 OPS pitcher across his 1.5 years of service. His career OPS is about 150 pts lower than Coffey's with a higher K/IP ratio in the bigs. Same age...
1. Majewski's DIPS ERA rate has been well over 1.00 for two years now. He's been ERA-lucky; mostly because he's also been BABIP-lucky.
2. Relief pitchers record ERA numbers that are around half a Run lower than Starting Pitchers. We need to adjust our views on good v. average v. bad accordingly. If a RP's ERA is 3.50 and that ERA matches his DIPS and his BABIP is average and his HR rate is good, he's still pretty near a 4.00 ERA. I suspect this has a lot to do with partial Inning usage patterns. Regardless, it's an item we have to look at.
When the trade went down, Majewski's DIPS rate was over 1.20 (120%+ of his ERA). Since then, Majewski's DIPS rate has gone down (1.06) because his ERA has risen (now at 3.97) while his DIPS rate hasn't changed. His BABIP luck is equalizing and his ERA is now a more true reflection of how he's actually pitched this year. Knowing that, we're able to get a clearer picture on exactly how close to average Majewski is this season. On the bright side, Majewski produces decent HR rates. But his low K/9 and higher BB/9 rates don't project him to get a whole lot better.
The outlook might be better had the Reds actually improved the team defense when acquiring him, but that would still be more about the defense than it would be about Majewski.
Exceptionally risky unless he projected a Billy Wagner-level fastball or somehow finds a way to keep the longball from being an issue.Bray -- Key man in the deal for the Reds (Hope the Reds scouts are right). Just turned 23, great minor numbers in K/9 and K/BB. Small sample size but the early returns look like he could be a gem. Lefty, under control until 2012. Very interesting.
If Krivsky had actually found near-lock level shutdown relievers, this one might be more palatable. But he didn't. He found slightly above average and a whole lotta' risk. I understand why folks are slathering that dish with ketchup right now, but I'd rather it taste good either with or without condiments.Maybe old vets demanding multi-year contracts. Or DFA fodder willing to do one year deals like what usually passes through Cincinnati. Low service time and productive relievers don't grow on trees -- and there aren't any at the upper levels of the Reds minor league system.
They need to become that just to get this deal to slightly below average. And I dislike the direction in it's entirety. It's a two dimensional move in a three dimensional world.This is one interesting trade and I like the overall direction -- the return is very debatable. Bray needs to become a stud setup man at minimum and Maj needs to keep being a Scott Sullivan rubber-arm for this to turn out well for the Reds.