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Thread: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

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  1. #1
    Worth The Wait
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    Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Fans always analyze trades in very black and white terms. The look at the players involved, decide which players are better and that's that. Very rarely do people truly analyze how trade affects the overall SITUATION.

    I LOVED this trade. I mean, LOVED it.

    I don't love it because I think Majewski is superior baseball player to Kearns. Not in the least. But I love it because of what it shows me.

    I am a firm believer that it is difficult to impossible to rebuild a losing team with the same players that have been losing for years. I don't want to delve too deeply into the "losing culture" theory, but I do think it has some merit. It's just hard for a new GM/owner to make the necessary changes to the franchise if the main characters remain the same.

    Nothing envigorates a franchise more than young, energetic players. Yes, we lost Kearns, but basically, we gained Deno. He's always been there, but for the first time, he is an actual part of this team. I absolutely think you need to include his name EVERY time you talk about this trade.

    The relievers we got aren't incredible, but they are both much better than what we've had and much YOUNGER than what we've had. Those should be two bullpen slots that we can rely on for the next few years.

    There was always something about Felo I didn't like. I think it was what was between his ears. For a guy that was occasionally brilliant, he had some unreal mental lapses that shouldn't affect a player of his age.

    Don't you see the parallel? Both Lopez and Kearns were once SUPERSTARS of the Reds future. Neither was bust by any means. But then again, neither se the world on fire. What you have in Kearns and Lopez are two player sthat have peaked. They can both certainly maintain their current level for many years, but neither is going to be a consistent all-start. All in all, you were looking at two average to above average major leaguers that will probably have one or two years of near all-star level play (Lopez may have already had his career year).

    I'm not saying that Kearns and Lopez were "losers" or "cancers" or anything of the sort. But the bottom line is that when you have a puzzle that doesn't look right, you simply MUST try some new pieces.

    People have this view of Kearns and Lopez as being these fantastic up and coming youngsters. That ship has sailed. They are what they are.

    And what are the Reds now?

    IMO, a better TEAM.

    Good work Wayne.

  2. #2
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Excellent post and I agree 100%.
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    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    I agree, but again, the value of Kearns was higher.
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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500
    I agree, but again, the value of Kearns was higher.
    Was the value of Kearns higher if the market has in fact changed? I think that's what Krivsky is saying. Good relievers, once the scrap heap of pitching, have become a premium. For a team in the market for better relievers, the market went up.

  5. #5
    Member ochre's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz
    Was the value of Kearns higher if the market has in fact changed? I think that's what Krivsky is saying. Good relievers, once the scrap heap of pitching, have become a premium. For a team in the market for better relievers, the market went up.
    good relievers, assuming that's what we got, are always way too expensive in season. That's no different from any year.

    A bold move does not make it, by default, a good move.

    Young, above average offensively (and defensively in Kearns case), position players ought to fetch starting pitching in the off-season. Burning that value up on mercurial relief pitching is bold. Only time will tell if it works out to be good.
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    First Time Caller SunDeck's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz
    Was the value of Kearns higher if the market has in fact changed? I think that's what Krivsky is saying. Good relievers, once the scrap heap of pitching, have become a premium. For a team in the market for better relievers, the market went up.
    Yep, and it just shows how important it is to create that stuff in your own farm system. If you want to go buy it, you are going to have to pay a premium. So, for a team that doesn't have any in the pipe, but which has a shot at the playoffs, there really isn't any other choice.
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  7. #7
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500
    I agree, but again, the value of Kearns was higher.
    Says who? you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns
    The premise of the trade was good, and I agree with you there completely, but we simply should have been able to get more value for them. Lopez has some holes in his game, but his overall package makes him an above average starting SS.

    This trade does not weaken us now, nor does it really weaken us in the future. It's that we could have gotten more. It's about what we didn't get rather than what we did get IMO.
    Again, says who? You?

    Everyone said when we got Arroyo that we didn't get enough for WMP. Now everyone is saying the same thing about this trade. It seems to me that instead of being able to get more in a trade for these guys, that fans here overvalue our own players far too much.

    Kearns and Lopez are both players with big question marks. Whether that be with their health(Kearns), or their talent(Lopez). If you take those important factors into consideration, plus the fact they're both VERY expensive beyond this year, plus the fact one is represented by Boras and will get close to 6 million a year for putting up a sub .800 OPS... plus you improve your infield defense by default, and dont lose much with your outfield defense... PLUS you instantly improve the bullpen by default also... PLUS you help your chances as your shot to win NOW.. well I dont really know how you can think this trade is terrible.

    Everyone cried when we got Brandon Phillips. Everyone whined when we got Dave Ross. Everyone said we left value at the table with WMP. I'd say all those have worked out pretty well.

    Was this trade a risk? Sure, every trade carries the weight of some risk. Did we leave value on the table? Perhaps, but you don't ALWAYS have to win trades on paper to win on the field. It may not work out, but at least its clear that we're trying to win, and trying to win this year. I'm excited about that. We haven't been to the playoffs in over a decade. Jim Bowden couldn't get it done and neither could Dan O'Brien. Lets give it another month or two and see where we stand as a team before we all follow the piper like lemmings and walk off a cliff.
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  8. #8
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco
    Says who? you?



    Again, says who? You?

    Everyone said when we got Arroyo that we didn't get enough for WMP. Now everyone is saying the same thing about this trade. It seems to me that instead of being able to get more in a trade for these guys, that fans here overvalue our own players far too much.


    Everyone cried when we got Brandon Phillips. Everyone whined when we got Dave Ross. Everyone said we left value at the table with WMP. I'd say all those have worked out pretty well.
    FYI, I wouldn't have been one of those "whiners". I thought this trade stunk because it did.

    Based on performance, contract status, and past history we can judge a player's value. I'm not really saying there was a better offer on the table, but if this was the best deal that Krivsky could find, then he shouldn't have made the trade.

    We traded 2 above average regulars who were not pending FAs for 2 relievers that are solid, but not "shut-down", 2 fringe infileders, and a raw prospect with loads of potential.

    There is a very large talent gap right there. 2 regular players who happen to be quite good are worth more than relievers. IMO set-up relievers should have about 1/2 the value of regulars because that is about how much effect they will have on games. We gave up 2 guys that we can replace within, but to me that does not justify selling them way short.

  9. #9
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns
    FYI, I wouldn't have been one of those "whiners". I thought this trade stunk because it did.

    Based on performance, contract status, and past history we can judge a player's value. I'm not really saying there was a better offer on the table, but if this was the best deal that Krivsky could find, then he shouldn't have made the trade.

    We traded 2 above average regulars who were not pending FAs for 2 relievers that are solid, but not "shut-down", 2 fringe infileders, and a raw prospect with loads of potential.

    There is a very large talent gap right there. 2 regular players who happen to be quite good are worth more than relievers. IMO set-up relievers should have about 1/2 the value of regulars because that is about how much effect they will have on games. We gave up 2 guys that we can replace within, but to me that does not justify selling them way short.
    Based on performance, contract status, and past history we can judge a player's value.

    You said it buddy, not me. Based on performance this year, Lopez is NOTHING very exciting and he doesn't have much of a track record... 2005 could very well be an abberation. Based on past history, Kearns value is NOTHING - he's an injury plagued, sometimes 'overweight' and 'bad attitude' guy in the clubhouse(none of which i believe, btw, except the injury plagued). Based on contract status(Kearns and Lopez) both are about to get REAL expensive, REAL quick, even in their arbitration years.

    IN YOUR OPINION, setup relievers should have about 1/2 the value of regulars... but thats just not the case. Good pitching is good pitching, bottom line. Doesn't matter if it comes out of the pen or the rotation. Its a hot commodity, and its hard to find. Both the guys we got, are both very solid bullpen guys.. and with Bray you have the potential to get a LOT better. Think Ryan Wagner - the one we SHOULD have gotten. The one who can actually get some guys out and not blow up on the mound.

    The fact that this gives us a shot to compete THIS YEAR, when every nut in baseball said we finished last, is just ONE of the small reasons this trade was done.

    What happens in the offseason when we got sign another 1 or 2 league average or above pitchers to add to the rotation with the savings we WONT have to spend on Lopez or Kearns? And all the sudden Cincy has FIVE capable starting pitchers, AND a bullpen to write home to mom about? What happens when we're ALSO competing next year?

    This seems fairly simple to me. But maybe thats just me.
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  10. #10
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco

    What happens in the offseason when we got sign another 1 or 2 league average or above pitchers to add to the rotation with the savings we WONT have to spend on Lopez or Kearns? And all the sudden Cincy has FIVE capable starting pitchers, AND a bullpen to write home to mom about? What happens when we're ALSO competing next year?

    This seems fairly simple to me. But maybe thats just me.
    The whole concept of the trade was fine, and I like the idea of having some money to play with in free agency, but we still did not get nearly enough to justify making this trade IMO.

  11. #11
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500
    I agree, but again, the value of Kearns was higher.
    No matter how many times people say that, it still doesn't make it true.

    I'm sick of people looking at this trade from a W/L perspective. Krivsky drew from a strength to better a weakness, and acquired pitching in a dry market, without trading any of his top prospects.

    This trade was great now, and for the future. No matter what Kearns and Lopez "woulda, coulda, or shoulda" brought in return, and no matter what they do in Washington.
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    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by guttle11
    Krivsky drew from a strength to better a weakness, and acquired pitching in a dry market, without trading any of his top prospects.
    No kidding. If you watched that 15-12 Atlanta/San Diego game last night, you witnessed just how dry this market is for pitching, any pitching.

    All Bruce Bochy and Bobby Cox could do last night was sit back, chew on some tums, and wait for the end to come....totally unable to stop the bleeding no matter who they threw out there to pitch. The Padres used 9 pitchers last night, a franchise record. The Braves blew leads of 5-1, 8-5, 11-9, and 12-11, finally winning 15-12.

    Though the bulk of the trade by the REDS will show Major League results three and four years from now, there will be some help immediately with Clayton, Maj, and Bray.
    Last edited by Eric_Davis; 07-15-2006 at 02:55 PM.
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  13. #13
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500
    I agree, but again, the value of Kearns was higher.
    Apparantely not.

  14. #14
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw
    Apparantely not.
    Or we didn't shop at the right store
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  15. #15
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    Or we didn't shop at the right store
    That's the thing -- what GM in baseball would covet Kearns and Lopez MORE than Jim Bowden? Combined with some of the stuff TC mentioned in his "skinny" thread, it makes me wonder if their trade value had cratered and Krivsky got what he could while he could. Maybe other teams were slapping a Milo on Kearns, and as for Lopez, instead of a premium offensive shortstop, they saw a guy that's neither long for shortstop nor raking anymore. There's a world of difference in value between shortstops OPSing .850 and second basemen at .750.

    It gets back to a couple of principles of the market: (1) The people who set the market are the other 29 GMs, everyone else's opinion doesn't count, and (2) a ballplayer is worth in trade only what another club will give for him.

    Anyway, the whole thing makes me think there were reasons and rationales involved that weren't strictly about current production, and we'll probably never know some of them.
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