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Thread: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

  1. #16
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Good post Ed.

    As rfs62 once said.... "Blow it up Wayne and make it yours!"

    He dood it!
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

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  3. #17
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Great post Ed. Way I see it is quite simple $$$$ saved to aquire a SP, plus 2 relievers who's salary we can control over the next few years. We stay in the playoff race and gain some pay flex this year later and down the line.
    2006 Redzone mock Draftee's- 1(st) Daniel Bard(redsox), 1(st sup)( Jordan Walden (Angels), 2(nd) rd.- Zach Britton(Orioles), 3(rd) Blair Erickson(Cardinals), 3(rd) Tim Norton( Yankees),(cuz its a Tim Hortons thing

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  4. #18
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    I like this trade, as well.
    Silently, I've been disappointed with Kearns' performance. Yeah, it is good - but those spectacular figures we had hoped for long ago seemed to not be surfacing.
    While I like Lopez a lot - his defence did suffer. And this year, his offense seemed to be pulled down with it.
    As for Wagner...great arm, but the man does not have killer instinct needed to be a successful ballplayer.

    As for the guys we got: while listening to the game while going to work, Narron took Harang out with a three run lead. For the first time in a very long time, I did not fear such a small lead.

  5. #19
    Worth The Wait
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    A few things:

    1. I don't think the "we could have gotten more" argument holds water for two very clear reasons

    A) The rest of MLB knows what many of us here have suspected for a long time-- Kearns and Lopez simply aren't that great. The luster is off BOTH of those guys-- neither is bad, both can be good, but no longer are we waiting for superstars to emerge-- ain't gonna happen. Look around MLB-- is it THAT hard to find an OF'er with similar numbers to Kearns?

    B) Bullpen help is not as plentiful as it once was. Both of the guys we got are good, young, and cheap. That's pretty important.

    2. It's no coincidence we did this deal with Bowden-- which makes me feel even better. Name another GM that overrates "potential" more than Jimbo? He drafted Kearns hoping he'd be the next Mickey Mantle, I believe Jimbo still thinks that might happen.

    If this is the ONLY big move Krivsky makes over the next season or so, then yeah, it's a bit odd. But assuming this is just another move in part of a bigger plan, it's brilliant.

  6. #20
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Judging by Krivsky's short track record as a GM, I am willing to say that this trade will be a success not only for this year but down the road too.

    Now just go out and get that fifth starter.
    If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.

  7. #21
    "A Rose by Any Other. . " RedRoser's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Good post, ed.
    And, as Krusty said "Now just go out and get that fifth starter," WK!

    ---'Roser

  8. #22
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Ed, one of the best posts I've read on the trade.
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

  9. #23
    RZ Chamber of Commerce Unassisted's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Well stated, edskin. I also liked the trade and agree with your list of reasons.
    /r/reds

  10. #24
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500
    I agree, but again, the value of Kearns was higher.
    Says who? you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns
    The premise of the trade was good, and I agree with you there completely, but we simply should have been able to get more value for them. Lopez has some holes in his game, but his overall package makes him an above average starting SS.

    This trade does not weaken us now, nor does it really weaken us in the future. It's that we could have gotten more. It's about what we didn't get rather than what we did get IMO.
    Again, says who? You?

    Everyone said when we got Arroyo that we didn't get enough for WMP. Now everyone is saying the same thing about this trade. It seems to me that instead of being able to get more in a trade for these guys, that fans here overvalue our own players far too much.

    Kearns and Lopez are both players with big question marks. Whether that be with their health(Kearns), or their talent(Lopez). If you take those important factors into consideration, plus the fact they're both VERY expensive beyond this year, plus the fact one is represented by Boras and will get close to 6 million a year for putting up a sub .800 OPS... plus you improve your infield defense by default, and dont lose much with your outfield defense... PLUS you instantly improve the bullpen by default also... PLUS you help your chances as your shot to win NOW.. well I dont really know how you can think this trade is terrible.

    Everyone cried when we got Brandon Phillips. Everyone whined when we got Dave Ross. Everyone said we left value at the table with WMP. I'd say all those have worked out pretty well.

    Was this trade a risk? Sure, every trade carries the weight of some risk. Did we leave value on the table? Perhaps, but you don't ALWAYS have to win trades on paper to win on the field. It may not work out, but at least its clear that we're trying to win, and trying to win this year. I'm excited about that. We haven't been to the playoffs in over a decade. Jim Bowden couldn't get it done and neither could Dan O'Brien. Lets give it another month or two and see where we stand as a team before we all follow the piper like lemmings and walk off a cliff.
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  11. #25
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns
    His hitting far outweighs his defensive deficiencies.
    Really?

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6415

    a sub .750 OPS is nothing to write home about. The guy is barely hitting .270, not even slugging .400. His eye seems better this year, he's getting on base okay.. he's swiping bags.. but beyond that, he's not worth the 6 million plus he's going to get in arbitration next year, especially when you factor in his defensive deficiencies.

    Come on man, take the rose colored glasses off and look at what we gave up. Really look at it. Detach yourself from these guys, and be objective. A guy with a line of 268/356/394 who isn't great on defense is really nothing too hard to replace. AND it can be done for a lot less than 6 million a year.
    "I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."

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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco
    Says who? you?



    Again, says who? You?

    Everyone said when we got Arroyo that we didn't get enough for WMP. Now everyone is saying the same thing about this trade. It seems to me that instead of being able to get more in a trade for these guys, that fans here overvalue our own players far too much.


    Everyone cried when we got Brandon Phillips. Everyone whined when we got Dave Ross. Everyone said we left value at the table with WMP. I'd say all those have worked out pretty well.
    FYI, I wouldn't have been one of those "whiners". I thought this trade stunk because it did.

    Based on performance, contract status, and past history we can judge a player's value. I'm not really saying there was a better offer on the table, but if this was the best deal that Krivsky could find, then he shouldn't have made the trade.

    We traded 2 above average regulars who were not pending FAs for 2 relievers that are solid, but not "shut-down", 2 fringe infileders, and a raw prospect with loads of potential.

    There is a very large talent gap right there. 2 regular players who happen to be quite good are worth more than relievers. IMO set-up relievers should have about 1/2 the value of regulars because that is about how much effect they will have on games. We gave up 2 guys that we can replace within, but to me that does not justify selling them way short.

  13. #27
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    We traded 2 above average regulars who were not pending FAs
    They were pending to get about 11 millon next year though.

  14. #28
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco
    Really?

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6415

    a sub .750 OPS is nothing to write home about. The guy is barely hitting .270, not even slugging .400. His eye seems better this year, he's getting on base okay.. he's swiping bags.. but beyond that, he's not worth the 6 million plus he's going to get in arbitration next year, especially when you factor in his defensive deficiencies.

    Come on man, take the rose colored glasses off and look at what we gave up. Really look at it. Detach yourself from these guys, and be objective. A guy with a line of 268/356/394 who isn't great on defense is really nothing too hard to replace. AND it can be done for a lot less than 6 million a year.
    I think Lopez is still fairly young and still capable of returning to last year's offensive numbers. I don't feel the same way about Kearns.

    Yet I still don't think it's a great trade. And I have justified my position on a perfectly objective and logical basis.

    But then, I'm not someone who routinely impugns the players the Reds ship out and blindly praises those who come back to the fold. I judge each on his merits and liabilities. Then I try to reach a conclusion--not the other way around.

  15. #29
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns
    FYI, I wouldn't have been one of those "whiners". I thought this trade stunk because it did.

    Based on performance, contract status, and past history we can judge a player's value. I'm not really saying there was a better offer on the table, but if this was the best deal that Krivsky could find, then he shouldn't have made the trade.

    We traded 2 above average regulars who were not pending FAs for 2 relievers that are solid, but not "shut-down", 2 fringe infileders, and a raw prospect with loads of potential.

    There is a very large talent gap right there. 2 regular players who happen to be quite good are worth more than relievers. IMO set-up relievers should have about 1/2 the value of regulars because that is about how much effect they will have on games. We gave up 2 guys that we can replace within, but to me that does not justify selling them way short.
    Based on performance, contract status, and past history we can judge a player's value.

    You said it buddy, not me. Based on performance this year, Lopez is NOTHING very exciting and he doesn't have much of a track record... 2005 could very well be an abberation. Based on past history, Kearns value is NOTHING - he's an injury plagued, sometimes 'overweight' and 'bad attitude' guy in the clubhouse(none of which i believe, btw, except the injury plagued). Based on contract status(Kearns and Lopez) both are about to get REAL expensive, REAL quick, even in their arbitration years.

    IN YOUR OPINION, setup relievers should have about 1/2 the value of regulars... but thats just not the case. Good pitching is good pitching, bottom line. Doesn't matter if it comes out of the pen or the rotation. Its a hot commodity, and its hard to find. Both the guys we got, are both very solid bullpen guys.. and with Bray you have the potential to get a LOT better. Think Ryan Wagner - the one we SHOULD have gotten. The one who can actually get some guys out and not blow up on the mound.

    The fact that this gives us a shot to compete THIS YEAR, when every nut in baseball said we finished last, is just ONE of the small reasons this trade was done.

    What happens in the offseason when we got sign another 1 or 2 league average or above pitchers to add to the rotation with the savings we WONT have to spend on Lopez or Kearns? And all the sudden Cincy has FIVE capable starting pitchers, AND a bullpen to write home to mom about? What happens when we're ALSO competing next year?

    This seems fairly simple to me. But maybe thats just me.
    "I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."

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  16. #30
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco
    Really?

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6415

    a sub .750 OPS is nothing to write home about. The guy is barely hitting .270, not even slugging .400. His eye seems better this year, he's getting on base okay.. he's swiping bags.. but beyond that, he's not worth the 6 million plus he's going to get in arbitration next year, especially when you factor in his defensive deficiencies.

    Come on man, take the rose colored glasses off and look at what we gave up. Really look at it. Detach yourself from these guys, and be objective. A guy with a line of 268/356/394 who isn't great on defense is really nothing too hard to replace. AND it can be done for a lot less than 6 million a year.
    Those numbers may not look very good, but how about when we compare him to other SS.

    He ranks 11th in SS OPS and ranks, 13th in RC/G, 13th in offensive win shares, and 16th in total win shares.

    Based on this season, his .749 OPS may not look very special, but more than half the teams in baseball have a guy putting up an even less special OPS. And to be fair, last season should not be discounted altogether where he has the 5th best OPS in baseball. He still does have that potential.

    Even when you factor in his poor fielding he is still an average regular this season and well above average last season.

    I'm not suggesting he wasn't a bad candidate to get traded, because I don't neccessarily think it's wise for a budget concious team like the Reds to tie up a good amount of money in Lopez, but he had value, and lots of it. An average SS this season coming off an all-star season with 2.5 years until free agency has a ton of value. He will not be as easy to replace as you think.


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