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Thread: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

  1. #31
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco

    What happens in the offseason when we got sign another 1 or 2 league average or above pitchers to add to the rotation with the savings we WONT have to spend on Lopez or Kearns? And all the sudden Cincy has FIVE capable starting pitchers, AND a bullpen to write home to mom about? What happens when we're ALSO competing next year?

    This seems fairly simple to me. But maybe thats just me.
    The whole concept of the trade was fine, and I like the idea of having some money to play with in free agency, but we still did not get nearly enough to justify making this trade IMO.

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  3. #32
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    I think Lopez is still fairly young and still capable of returning to last year's offensive numbers. I don't feel the same way about Kearns.

    Yet I still don't think it's a great trade. And I have justified my position on a perfectly objective and logical basis.

    But then, I'm not someone who routinely impugns the players the Reds ship out and blindly praises those who come back to the fold. I judge each on his merits and liabilities. Then I try to reach a conclusion--not the other way around.
    I dont either my man. I'm not so sure Lopez can repeat his 2005 performance, and as much as a big fan I am of Austin Kearns, I still can't let myself believe that he wont get hurt, or regress, or something. I've just been let down way too much by him.

    All that said, I wont blindly praise those who come back in the fold either - but I will say that I am one of the FEW who knew EVERY.. SINGLE.. NAME.. that came back to us in this trade. Bill Bray, Daryl Thompson, Brandon Harris, Maj Majewski.. all those names are very familiar with me and I know very much their capabilities. I'm not going to blindly praise every one of them, especially Clayton. But Maj is a very solid reliever - and Bray has the potential to be a closer IMO. Thompson, aside from injury, looked very promosing and was making tons of progress just last year. It seems to me the very core weakness of this team was thuroughly addressed. And I dont think we gave up the farm to do it. As an added bonus, we just gave ourselves about 11 million dollars of flexability headed into next offseason. To me, that spells 1 or 2 more very good to above average pitchers to add to a rotation. To me that spells, for the first time in a VERY LONG TIME, a full 5 man rotation that could be average to above.

    As someone said, we've seen where all the offense has gotten us over the years. Mostly, its gotten us a lot of headaches, heartburn, and strained necks by the time June rolls around. We are within reach of this thing, and its time to strike if we really want a chance.

    And if we dont make it? Well, I'm positive that Krivsky is going to retool this team with money saved during the offseason. He's putting his own stamp on this team, and I like it. Its a much needed change. I know its hard for a lot of folks to deal with, especially considering how much we're all emotionally invested in this team - and when you consider that we're mostly invested in the offensive side of the ball becuase thats the only things thats been worth a damn in the last 6 years. But give it a month. If we're still in striking distance of 1st place.. and still in WC contention - wont it have been worth it for a shot to finally win?

    Make no mistake, this ownership and regime is doing exactly what it said it would - and that would be to try to win. I didn't think they'd have a huge window to do so. I thought it would be next year and 2008 and that was about it. A very small window to gun for. The way Krivs is setting it up, giving himself the financial wiggle room, we may be in contention this year, next year, 2008, and possibly even beyond when the fruits of the farm system start appearing.

    All I'm saying is try to look at the big picture. There is light at the end of the tunnel folks, for the first time in a long time, its getting closer.
    "I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."

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  4. #33
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns
    Those numbers may not look very good, but how about when we compare him to other SS.

    He ranks 11th in SS OPS and ranks, 13th in RC/G, 13th in offensive win shares, and 16th in total win shares.

    Based on this season, his .749 OPS may not look very special, but more than half the teams in baseball have a guy putting up an even less special OPS. And to be fair, last season should not be discounted altogether where he has the 5th best OPS in baseball. He still does have that potential.

    Even when you factor in his poor fielding he is still an average regular this season and well above average last season.

    I'm not suggesting he wasn't a bad candidate to get traded, because I don't neccessarily think it's wise for a budget concious team like the Reds to tie up a good amount of money in Lopez, but he had value, and lots of it. An average SS this season coming off an all-star season with 2.5 years until free agency has a ton of value. He will not be as easy to replace as you think.
    Reread what you just said. An AVERAGE shortstop coming off an all star season but putting up a sub .750 OPS with 2.5 years left until free agency, which is going to cost 6 plus million a year next, and god knows how much more after has a ton of value?

    an average short stop worth 6 plus million? I dont think so. Again, I think some folks around here put WAY to much stock in their own players.

    If a .750 OPS at shortstop is hard to replace, then move Brandon Phillips over to SS(which he's capable of handling) and find a new 2b or put freel there. See? That wasn't very hard at all.

    He ranks 11th in SS OPS and ranks, 13th in RC/G, 13th in offensive win shares, and 16th in total win shares.
    So, he's about middle of the pack really.. an average short stop as you said. Is that worth 6 million? Even if you can't replace the OPS, if you can get an above average defender there, this team has more than enough offense. Add that in with another average to above average pitcher(ala Arroyo, who's good but seriously has been pitching well over his head).. and suddenly this team has some pitching and defense - and still enough offense to win games.

    This really seems like a no brainer.
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric
    Lopez is an above average starting SS nowhere. If it wasn't for the old school way baseball is ran Felipe would never see the field as a SS. He's horrendous.
    Is that an excuse to just totally give up on a player and trade him for garbage? Last I heard, teams still fielded players at first and second base.

  6. #35
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns
    The whole concept of the trade was fine, and I like the idea of having some money to play with in free agency, but we still did not get nearly enough to justify making this trade IMO.
    Okay, thats my whole point here. Its your opinion. In my opinion, we probably could have gotten a bit better value too. But this deal was by no means a heartbreaker, and is by no means did Krivsky get bent over, like some are saying.. not when you really look at what we gave up. These guys are both players with huge question marks.

    Can Lopez repeat his 2005 performance or was it an abberation?
    Can Kearns stay healthy and finally live up to his potential?
    Are both these guys REALLY worth the money they're going to get in arbitration?

    Too all those questions, I would say probably not - aside from perhaps Kearns finally staying healthy - but beyond this year, I'm no miss cleo.

    The philisophical reasons for doing this were sound. And thats all that matters to me. It gives us a shot to win NOW and gives us room to be big spenders this year in free agency. And I really don't think we lost a whole lot on the offensive side of the hill, we gained a ton by default in the bullpen area, and by default, we help ourselves defensively.
    "I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."

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  7. #36
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco

    If a .750 OPS at shortstop is hard to replace, then move Brandon Phillips over to SS(which he's capable of handling) and find a new 2b or put freel there. See? That wasn't very hard at all.
    That would be nice, but you know it wont happen this season. Clayton is the SS.

  8. #37
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500
    I agree, but again, the value of Kearns was higher.
    Most people who have said they have disliked the trade also seem to have forgotten the basic rule of Trading101: "Buy Low, Sell High".

    Kearns has had nothing but absolutely horrible years since he's been in the Majors...he was even sent back to the minors in the last year or two because of how horrible he's been. He's finally put together a "decent" first half giving him the potential of one good season. Now is the time to sell.

    Lopez was an All-Star last year. While he hasn't put together the All-Star numbers from last year, his 30 SB's, and other offensive production from the SS spot puts him among the elite SS's in the National League offensively. He's entering his prime (now that steroids are gone, 27 years old will be the prime year again), just like Kearns. Now is the time to sell.

    Wagner on the other hand is being sold not while he's rising in his career, though with his birthday tomorrow, he's still a young 24. However, he is being sold to the G.M. who originally drafted him which places his value higher than with other G.M.'s around the league.

    In return, we are getting five players, none of which are anywhere near their prime...Majewski being the closest, but since Majewski is the fourth or fifth best player of the ones the REDS received, that's OK.

    The three best players the REDS received are Bray, Harris, and Thompson...all three being purchased when their value as very low.

    This is a perfect example of a perfect trade. This is how winning organizations make trades and improve their franchises.

    Krivsky gets an A+ for this trade. For those of you who don't like the trade, don't feel bad...you're like most G.M.'s...you want to look good within one year of the trade. Four years from now, the REDS will have gotten so much more out of this trade than the Nationals.

    But it's not about getting the better of the other team.

    As a result of this trade, the franchise is set up better in overall talent, and they've set up the "big payday" better. Lopez, Kearns, and Dunn would have all demanded big contract increases about the same time....they are set up a little better financially two years from now.

    In any trade you want to get the best player in the deal, but you don't want that player to be the best player immediately, otherwise you're paying too much and buying too high.

    Kearns and Lopez are the better players "right now". That's a "GOOD" thing. That's how you're supposed to make a trade. Trade the players who are better right now for the better players who'll be better later,...then sit back, be patient, and reap the rewards.

    The A's have done this for years...the Twins have done this. The Braves have done this for years to the tune of 14 straight division titles. Not everybody gets it, in fact, most G.M.'s are clueless...that's why the same teams keep winning all the time.

    We are blessed to have Krivsky and this new ownership in place who understand "the right way" to conduct business.

    I look forward to many, many, more positive moves by Krivsky and his staff.

    The guy who sits on his hands and does nothing does nothing and occasionally Krivsky will err in his judgement, but just like any business that has ups and downs, his will be like Boeing's...mostly, up, up, and away.!!!

    Look! Up in the sky! It's a plane, it's a bird,....NO, it's SuperKriv!
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  9. #38
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500
    I agree, but again, the value of Kearns was higher.
    No matter how many times people say that, it still doesn't make it true.

    I'm sick of people looking at this trade from a W/L perspective. Krivsky drew from a strength to better a weakness, and acquired pitching in a dry market, without trading any of his top prospects.

    This trade was great now, and for the future. No matter what Kearns and Lopez "woulda, coulda, or shoulda" brought in return, and no matter what they do in Washington.
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

  10. #39
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns
    His hitting far outweighs his defensive deficiencies.

    Absolute fallacy.

    Is Felipe Lopez Adam Dunn? No. Adam Dunn's hitting far outweighs his defensive deficiencies, but only Felipe Lopez circa 2005 offensively would even come marginally close to outweighing defensive deficiencies.

    Felipe Lopez should concentrate on not being a switch hitter, and maybe find a home at 2B at any ballpark in the MLB and then maybe, maybe his hitting might far outweigh his defensive deficiencies.

  11. #40
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    In the end success will be defined by making a playoff run. I have a hard time seeing a team with an infield of RA, RC, BP and SH making a playoff run (as a group they combine below average defense and offense). Add in the fact the two primary defensive positions are being manned by guys age 36, this is still a poor defensive team.
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  12. #41
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    In the end success will be defined by making a playoff run. I have a hard time seeing a team with an infield of RA, RC, BP and SH making a playoff run (as a group they combine below average defense and offense). Add in the fact the two primary defensive positions are being manned by guys age 36, this is still a poor defensive team.
    But with a better bullpen. Why is that being forgotten in this?
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

  13. #42
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by guttle11
    But with a better bullpen. Why is that being forgotten in this?
    I have a hard time seeing how 2 guys (that are very average) and will combine to pitch maybe 60 innings in the last 70 games are going to have as big of an impact as an infield made of mostly subpar players with the stick and in the field.

    f WK had acquired a solid starter who would give 100 IP I would have felt a lot better.
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  14. #43
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by guttle11
    Krivsky drew from a strength to better a weakness, and acquired pitching in a dry market, without trading any of his top prospects.
    No kidding. If you watched that 15-12 Atlanta/San Diego game last night, you witnessed just how dry this market is for pitching, any pitching.

    All Bruce Bochy and Bobby Cox could do last night was sit back, chew on some tums, and wait for the end to come....totally unable to stop the bleeding no matter who they threw out there to pitch. The Padres used 9 pitchers last night, a franchise record. The Braves blew leads of 5-1, 8-5, 11-9, and 12-11, finally winning 15-12.

    Though the bulk of the trade by the REDS will show Major League results three and four years from now, there will be some help immediately with Clayton, Maj, and Bray.
    Last edited by Eric_Davis; 07-15-2006 at 01:55 PM.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    I have a hard time seeing how 2 guys (that are very average) and will combine to pitch maybe 60 innings in the last 70 games are going to have as big of an impact as an infield made of mostly subpar players with the stick and in the field.

    f WK had acquired a solid starter who would give 100 IP I would have felt a lot better.
    Because those innings they are going to give us have been over the early part of the season high leverage innings that have cost this team a number of games. I would say that we could easily allocate 10 losses to this bullpen so far this year.

    You have to stop the bleeding, and you have to give the team hope. A bad pen makes the rest of the team feel like their efforts are all for naught.

    Not saying I wouldn't LOVE another good SP, but bullpen is a bigger issue right now.

  16. #45
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    The success of this trade in large part depends upon Narron. The Reds are a better team now with this trade because the bullpen is very much improved and the offense should not drop off...if Narron plays the right people.

    Narron's signing will prove more important than this trade by Krivsky.
    Thank goodness for baseball.


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