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Thread: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

  1. #46
    Worth The Wait
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    But then, I'm not someone who routinely impugns the players the Reds ship out and blindly praises those who come back to the fold. I judge each on his merits and liabilities. Then I try to reach a conclusion--not the other way around.
    FCB-- Lots of people around here have been advocating trading Kearns and/or Lopez for a LONG time. I for one, have been on record as having said I'd like almost ANY decent pitching in return for those two.

    What we're seeing is a typical phenomenom of sports fans-- vastly overrating what they've got.

    Do me a favor: Take all outfielders on major league rosters right now-- rank them from 1st to last--- then tell me where Kearns fits in.

    Now, rank all middle relievers from 1st to last. I guarantee you that Majewski and Bray will rank higher on that list than Kearns will on his.

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  3. #47
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin
    FCB-- Lots of people around here have been advocating trading Kearns and/or Lopez for a LONG time. I for one, have been on record as having said I'd like almost ANY decent pitching in return for those two.

    What we're seeing is a typical phenomenom of sports fans-- vastly overrating what they've got.

    Do me a favor: Take all outfielders on major league rosters right now-- rank them from 1st to last--- then tell me where Kearns fits in.

    Now, rank all middle relievers from 1st to last. I guarantee you that Majewski and Bray will rank higher on that list than Kearns will on his.
    Apples and caterpillars.

    Above average is above average. Kearns is an above average right fielder.

    Show me the metrics that put Majewski above average. Same for Bray.

    The point everyone seems so willing to gloss over is that those teams that have made off like bandits moving players like Kearns and Lopez have done so in the offseason. Krivsky was even party to one such fleecing. The problem I have with this deal is and will always be, regardless of how the principles perform from here on out is that Krivsky just went all in with a 3-4-6-7. All he needs is that 5, but the odds are against it.
    Last edited by ochre; 07-15-2006 at 03:18 PM.
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  4. #48
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Man, I feel like I have gone back in time to 1971 when the Reds made that deal with the Astros. Reds fans lambasted Bob Howsam for dealing away Lee Mays, Tommy Helms and Jimmy Stewart.

    Now fast forward to 2006. Same thinking here. But there is a good chance Bray can develop into a future closer for this team the next five to seven years. Do you think Ryan Wagner would have developed into the future closer for the Reds given his tailspin? The Reds have Guardado for this season. The Reds have solified the bullpen for not only this season but next season too. Clayton (Denis Menke) is a stopgap for this season. Next year you'll have Brandon Phillips at shortstop.

    But it is the other players and their style of play that will determine the outcome of the Reds down the road. Chris Denorfia's play is similar to Ryan Freel and he will go all out. Maybe he doesn't possess the power numbers of a Austin Kearns but if he hits .270 and can get on base consistently at the top of the lineup, we can live with his lack of punch.

    Brenden Harris could be the second baseman next season. If not, look for him to be the utility player to fill in at second and third base. His style of play is all out.

    Just as the Reds tried to rectifiy a sore spot with the bullpen, I think they wanted to get players in the lineup that will put everything they have on the field.

    Pitching, defense and timely hitting wins ballgames. Chicks might like the long ball but championship teams are built on those three things.
    Last edited by Krusty; 07-15-2006 at 03:29 PM.
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    I agree quite a bit. I remember some were upset getting rid of Wily Mo. Own it's own that trade worked out, but it gave Kearns the ability to play everyday and now Kearns is traded for pitching which we despartly need. For sure the Reds FO thinks we have OF down on the farm and we sure do. I think with lopez it's just a piece of the puzzle. I'm not sure who replaces him full time, but the defense wasn't getting better. It will allow us to get better at SS with defense and EE can work on his defense. It's all a piece of the puzzle. What I like the most of the trade is that it shows this FO is trying to win now. Not next season, but now - and that's a big change from the past. I'd like to see an interview with Dunn and Griffey as they were all buddies. I wonder what they think about the trade.

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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    One of the positives for me is that the trade continues to chip away at my memory of that nightmare known as the Lindner years. Some people running things who may actually care and have a little competence- what a concept.

  7. #51
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty
    Now just go out and get that fifth starter.
    We have one, his name is Milton

    We need a 3 starter..and I don't see what's left to trade for one
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    We have one, his name is Milton

    We need a 3 starter..and I don't see what's left to trade for one
    How about the Phillies Jon Lieber? We trade Claussen and LaRue for Lieber and Liberthal. We really don't need Lieberthal but it gets us out of LaRue's salary for 2007 and allows the Reds to afford Lieber's 2007 salary of 7.5 million. Liberthal will be a free agent at the end of the season and LaRue can take his place come 2007.
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  9. #53
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    We have one, his name is Milton

    We need a 3 starter..and I don't see what's left to trade for one
    Oh c'mon Krono.. there is plenty of good prospects in the minor leagues having good years.

    Votto, Bailey, Wood, Cueto, Bruce... guys like Ward, Lecure even, Stubbs as a PTBNL even.. these guys are not without value. Larue has some value, despite his putrid hitting this year. Aurillia may have some, albiet small. Claussen even... Value is there, you just have to put it together.
    Last edited by cincyinco; 07-15-2006 at 04:12 PM.
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  10. #54
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    We need a 3 starter..and I don't see what's left to trade for one
    I agree, but is I hope that doesn't imply that Kearns/Lopez could have fetched a good #3 starter. I can't think of any team in MLB who would give up a quality 3rd starter for either or even both of those guys. And if my team gave up a #3 starter for either of them, then I'd be outraged unless the organization was LOADED with top notch pitching-- aren't many of those.

  11. #55
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin
    I agree, but is I hope that doesn't imply that Kearns/Lopez could have fetched a good #3 starter. I can't think of any team in MLB who would give up a quality 3rd starter for either or even both of those guys. And if my team gave up a #3 starter for either of them, then I'd be outraged unless the organization was LOADED with top notch pitching-- aren't many of those.
    Truth is...since the Bowden years, we've been strapped with a lot of mediocre players with sometimes big salaries. There has been no one that we could really point at to get that top pitcher. Casey brought Dave Williams and Pittsburgh is waking up to the fact that Sean is what he is. A non-run producing first baseman. Not much call for that. WMP brought Arroyo, but Bronson was just a relief pitcher with the Sox. He's done better, but has looked horrible lately. WMP is WMP. Potential out the kazoo, but not much else. Kearns and Lopez brought two middle relief pitchers and a Thanksgiving turkey...I mean Royce Clayton. Only Bowden would have done this deal. He loves potential.

    Each of the players traded were loved by a lot of the Reds fans, but they had problems in their games. Casey was slow and not a run producer, WMP was a monster hitter when he wasn't swinging wildly and a poor fielder, Lopez was a player with a career year last year who couldn't field, and Kearns just seemed lazy and with an attitude. All four of them might have brought a depdable 2nd or third starter, but probably not.

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  12. #56
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty
    How about the Phillies Jon Lieber? We trade Claussen and LaRue for Lieber and Liberthal. We really don't need Lieberthal but it gets us out of LaRue's salary for 2007 and allows the Reds to afford Lieber's 2007 salary of 7.5 million. Liberthal will be a free agent at the end of the season and LaRue can take his place come 2007.
    That's a great idea.
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  13. #57
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty
    How about the Phillies Jon Lieber? We trade Claussen and LaRue for Lieber and Liberthal. We really don't need Lieberthal but it gets us out of LaRue's salary for 2007 and allows the Reds to afford Lieber's 2007 salary of 7.5 million. Liberthal will be a free agent at the end of the season and LaRue can take his place come 2007.
    Jon Lieber would only be a marginal improvement over what the Reds currently trot out every 5th day. Opposing hitters are slugging .505 off him this season, and his OPSA is over .100 points higher than his career average. Bad year, or just a mediocre pitcher hitting the wall at age 36? I'll pass on finding out.

    I'd rather take my chances that a 27 year old Claussen puts it together a little bit in the second half than toss him away and hope that a 36 year old Lieber suddenly remembers how effective he was when he was 4 years younger.
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  14. #58
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500
    I agree, but again, the value of Kearns was higher.
    Apparantely not.

  15. #59
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw
    Apparantely not.
    Or we didn't shop at the right store
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  16. #60
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed
    Or we didn't shop at the right store
    That's the thing -- what GM in baseball would covet Kearns and Lopez MORE than Jim Bowden? Combined with some of the stuff TC mentioned in his "skinny" thread, it makes me wonder if their trade value had cratered and Krivsky got what he could while he could. Maybe other teams were slapping a Milo on Kearns, and as for Lopez, instead of a premium offensive shortstop, they saw a guy that's neither long for shortstop nor raking anymore. There's a world of difference in value between shortstops OPSing .850 and second basemen at .750.

    It gets back to a couple of principles of the market: (1) The people who set the market are the other 29 GMs, everyone else's opinion doesn't count, and (2) a ballplayer is worth in trade only what another club will give for him.

    Anyway, the whole thing makes me think there were reasons and rationales involved that weren't strictly about current production, and we'll probably never know some of them.
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