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Thread: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

  1. #106
    Member ochre's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    now we can start arguing about the sort of results that make it the "right gamble"

    it's definitely started a buzz. I know that I've been on the board more than I have in years.
    I think that is best evaluated by looking at where the Reds were positioned before the trade. I felt that they could contend next year and would really be a force in '08. What happened in this trade appears to be a win now at all costs type move. If it remains in isolation, it's a middling effort at best, as there are plenty of other holes that need to be addressed for a legit run to be made.

    How does this move affect the 2 year out look? I think it has a generally negative impact, outside of any further moves. The pieces moved were likely more valuable individually, than grouped. Particularly in an offseason move. The Arroyo trade for a platoon outfielder being a nice offseason position player value baseline. I don't value relief pitchers nearly as highly as a starting pitcher. The problem with the Reds recent bullpens seems to have been that they have moved nearly entirely to loading up with old, proven veterens to fill those slots. Previous regimes (prior to O'Brien, he's the culprit) had done nicely by acquiring young fringe power arms to plug in en masse. That strategy had worked reasonably well. The problem became that they started locking those players in past their prime effective ages.

    My hope is that the Reds can move Majewski for prime value near the deadline without really impacting their opportunities this year. To me that would show some real value mindedness. Seeing the market imbalances, it has to be considered, given the derth of impact position players in the Reds system. Bray I would generally try to hold onto, as he does seem to be a nice component going into what ought to be prime contention years.
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  3. #107
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by ochre
    Previous regimes (prior to O'Brien, he's the culprit) had done nicely by acquiring young fringe power arms to plug in en masse. That strategy had worked reasonably well. The problem became that they started locking those players in past their prime effective ages.
    You've hit on another of the inherited problems. We failed to acquire and/or develop an even passable bullpenner in the last two years - unheard of for this organization.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  4. #108
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo
    You've hit on another of the inherited problems. We failed to acquire and/or develop an even passable bullpenner in the last two years - unheard of for this organization.
    Exactly. The barren upper farm system left this team hopelessly exposed in the pen (which makes the Hancock move all the more puzzling)

    Coffey's been the only young and intriguing pen arm we've developed since Willamson back in '99. Wagner gave us a couple months at the end of '04. Riedling teased us for half a season a while back. But zippo, nada, nothing -- which is the ironic part of JimBo being on the receiving end of the Reds recent trade.

    wrg to middle relief and especially setup men the Reds "Replacement Player" baseline for stat comparisons has consistently been DFA fodder (too numerous and painful to list) and aging veterans in the ~1M a year range (Mercker, Weathers, Weber, White, Hammond, etc.). The Reds simply had nothing else better in house to even consider without a flyer on one of the AA guys.

    With Maj, Bray and Coffey, we've got the presently blackhole bullpen line item box checked through 2010 on the cheap with some interesting arms. In the short term, we've got guys that can get meaningful outs (7th-9th) in what will soon be the first meaningful post July 31st games for anyone in a Cincinnati uniform since 1999.

  5. #109
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Most people who have said they have disliked the trade also seem to have forgotten the basic rule of Trading101: "Buy Low, Sell High".

    Kearns has had nothing but absolutely horrible years since he's been in the Majors...he was even sent back to the minors in the last year or two because of how horrible he's been. He's finally put together a "decent" first half giving him the potential of one good season. Now is the time to sell.

    Lopez was an All-Star last year. While he hasn't put together the All-Star numbers from last year, his 30 SB's, and other offensive production from the SS spot puts him among the elite SS's in the National League offensively. He's entering his prime (now that steroids are gone, 27 years old will be the prime year again), just like Kearns. Now is the time to sell.

    Wagner on the other hand is being sold not while he's rising in his career, though with his birthday tomorrow, he's still a young 24. However, he is being sold to the G.M. who originally drafted him which places his value higher than with other G.M.'s around the league.

    In return, we are getting five players, none of which are anywhere near their prime...Majewski being the closest, but since Majewski is the fourth or fifth best player of the ones the REDS received, that's OK.

    The three best players the REDS received are Bray, Harris, and Thompson...all three being purchased when their value as very low.

    This is a perfect example of a perfect trade. This is how winning organizations make trades and improve their franchises.

    Krivsky gets an A+ for this trade. For those of you who don't like the trade, don't feel bad...you're like most G.M.'s...you want to look good within one year of the trade. Four years from now, the REDS will have gotten so much more out of this trade than the Nationals.

    But it's not about getting the better of the other team.

    As a result of this trade, the franchise is set up better in overall talent, and they've set up the "big payday" better. Lopez, Kearns, and Dunn would have all demanded big contract increases about the same time....they are set up a little better financially two years from now.

    In any trade you want to get the best player in the deal, but you don't want that player to be the best player immediately, otherwise you're paying too much and buying too high.

    Kearns and Lopez are the better players "right now". That's a "GOOD" thing. That's how you're supposed to make a trade. Trade the players who are better right now for the better players who'll be better later,...then sit back, be patient, and reap the rewards.

    The A's have done this for years...the Twins have done this. The Braves have done this for years to the tune of 14 straight division titles. Not everybody gets it, in fact, most G.M.'s are clueless...that's why the same teams keep winning all the time.

    We are blessed to have Krivsky and this new ownership in place who understand "the right way" to conduct business.

    I look forward to many, many, more positive moves by Krivsky and his staff.

    The guy who sits on his hands and does nothing does nothing and occasionally Krivsky will err in his judgement, but just like any business that has ups and downs, his will be like Boeing's...mostly, up, up, and away.!!!

    Look! Up in the sky! It's a plane, it's a bird,....NO, it's SuperKriv!
    Just wanted to say, "The results of the trade are exactly what I was referring to".
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  6. #110
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: Something that gets overlooked with trades like this (I'm loving Krivsky BTW)

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Sorry about my comments being mixed in with yours above, but I don't know how to break down the different sections to comment on them individually.

    As you know, I like the Craig Monroe's and Wilson Betemit's of this world...guys who can give you decent numbers and be relied upon to play every day if needed, who'll know that they are role players, not superstars.

    It's in Thompson and Bray that the majority of the REDS's investment lies. Thompson will take five years to find out if it worked. Hope we're both here by then, and I hope Krivsky is, too.

    Bray, we get to watch, as he learns to throw his changeup for strikes and not for homeruns. He doesn't have to be a "closer" to make this deal successful. If he can give us 90-110 innings per year with an average ERA under 4.00 for the next six years, then it will have been a good trade.

    It just took having watched the progress of players for 40 years to see that Thompson and Bray were the reasons for the trade at the time.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."


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