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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #16
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Good day today...Stubbs went 3-for-4 with three doubles tonight.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainHook
    No offense intended, but some folks need to get a grip.

    Stubbs hasn't lit the league on fire on his first 20 games, but he hasn't been terrible either.

    Yes his 230 BA is anemic, but to borrow a quote from 'Bull Durham', if he got one more Texas leaguer or ground ball with eyes per week (4 hits) he'd be batting 284 and no one would be asking what is wrong with him. Aside from his low BA (and K's if those hurt your feelings), Stubbs has for the most part been solid.

    1. He's playing a gold-glove caliber CF
    2. He's putting up an outstanding BB rate and secondary averages
    3. He's getting on base at a very solid 356 clip
    4. He leads the Pioneer league in SB (11) and has only been caught once
    5. He is 2nd in the Pioneer league in triples

    Right now, he looks like a young Mike Cameron ... great speed and defense, developing power, solid OBP, lots of K's and a mediocre BA. Mike Cameron was one of the best combinations of offense/defense at the CF position in MLB from 1999-2003. I would have no problem if Stubbs turned into a carbon copy of Mike Cameron in his prime.
    Yes, this is an enormously small sample size. But I think Stubbs has at least shown a cause for concern. His biggest question was his hitting and his hitting has been nothing short of horrific. You know you are struggling when your SLG is less than your OBP.

    But the most disturbing thing is that he is in Billings right now. Yeah he had a good day today, but he faced a 19 year old with an 11.51 ERA. He is facing teenagers when he starred for one of the best college programs in the country.

    I really hope this is a sample size issue, b/c he should be doing much better than what he has showed so far.

  4. #18
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine
    Good day today...Stubbs went 3-for-4 with three doubles tonight.
    yeah, 1 double off of 3 different pitchers, maybe he figured out what he's doing?

  5. #19
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenlord
    and if it's kept track of (i doubt it is) i'd wadger Wilson gets hit at a higher rate with 3 balls on him then with all other count combonations
    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...&type=batting3

    Check his 'By Count' split for the last three years. Wilson has 53 HBP during that time period, but only 5 of 'em have come with 3 ball counts (3-0, 3-1, 3-2). He pretty much only gets plunked when he is in a pitchers count (19 HBP) or when the count is even (21 HBP).
    Last edited by Steve4192; 07-17-2006 at 01:03 PM.

  6. #20
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Back to the sample size issue. Here why folks need to chill out.

    After ONE good game, Stubbs batting average just shot up 26 points and his OPS went up 81 points. It is WAY too early to draw any meaningful information from Stubbs batting stats at this point.

    To further illustrate the point, let's keep in mind that Jay Bruce was batting 263 with an ugly 315 OBP after the first eight weeks of the season. Now, six weeks later, he is batting 315 with a stellar 383 OBP and we are hearing rumblings about him being named minor league player of the year.

    A lot can change over the course of a season. Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Stubbs stumbled out of the starters blocks, but he's still got 26 miles left to make up the lost ground.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 07-17-2006 at 08:48 AM.

  7. #21
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainHook

    To further illustrate the point, let's keep in mind that Jay Bruce was batting 263 with an ugly 315 OBP after the first eight weeks of the season. Now, six weeks later, he is batting 315 with a stellar 383 OBP and we are hearing rumblings about him being named minor league player of the year.
    Great point.

    I think the other factor is that people heard coming in that his hitting was questionable. No one freaked of Bruce's slow start bc we all "knew" he was a solid hitter. But when a questionable hitter struggles, it's bc he sucks (so say the posters).

  8. #22
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I agree that the sample size is small, and that we'll know more in six weeks. And hopefully Stubbs hits .333 by end of season.

    a 21 year old really should hit like crazy in Billings, where you'll see guys hit .450 for extended periods. Hitting .400 at Billings projects little, but if you hit .240 at 21 in Billings, you don't hit anywhere.

  9. #23
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    a 21 year old really should hit like crazy in Billings, where you'll see guys hit .450 for extended periods. Hitting .400 at Billings projects little, but if you hit .240 at 21 in Billings, you don't hit anywhere.
    I completely agree that he should be tearing the cover off the ball in the Pioneer league. However, I am not going to rush to judgement based on a half season of rookie ball.

    There are plenty of examples of college guys who stunk up the joint in rookie ball who recovered nicely in a full-season league the following year. There are also plenty of examples of college guys who destroyed rookie ball and never could carry that success over to a full-season league. Maybe his body has adapted to the shorter college season and he is worn down. Maybe he is struggling with the adjustment to a wood bat. Maybe he just has the misfortune of being in a slump to start his pro career. Maybe he is dealing with personal issues. Who knows?

    Regardless of the reason, I don't believe we can't glean a whole lot of useful information about the kid until he has had an offseason to prepare for the rigors of pro baseball. As long as he hits next year in Dayton/Sarasota, I don't much care what he does this year.

  10. #24
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainHook
    There are plenty of examples of college guys who stunk up the joint in rookie ball who recovered nicely in a full-season league the following year.
    find a Billings guy

  11. #25
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    find a Billings guy
    Pat Watkins is the guy who immediately comes to mind. I remembered being stoked about the Reds drafting him out of ECU in 1993. I got to watch him quite a bit in college and though he was a heck of a player. Pat pretty much sucked at Billings and looked like a bust in 1993, but then made the jump up to the high A Carolina league in 1994 and absolutely wrecked everything in his path.

    Jason Larue is another guy that was a much better hitter in single-A/AA ball than he was in rookie ball. Noochie Varner also really struggled in his first year at Billings, though he crushed the league the following year. Heck, even Edwin Encarnacion struggled at Billings, but he was probably the youngest player in the league at that time so we have to cut him some slack.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 07-17-2006 at 12:46 PM.

  12. #26
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainHook
    Back to the sample size issue. Here why folks need to chill out.

    After ONE good game, Stubbs batting average just shot up 26 points and his OPS went up 81 points. It is WAY too early to draw any meaningful information from Stubbs batting stats at this point.

    To further illustrate the point, let's keep in mind that Jay Bruce was batting 263 with an ugly 315 OBP after the first eight weeks of the season. Now, six weeks later, he is batting 315 with a stellar 383 OBP and we are hearing rumblings about him being named minor league player of the year.

    A lot can change over the course of a season. Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Stubbs stumbled out of the starters blocks, but he's still got 26 miles left to make up the lost ground.
    But you have to admit that it's scary that Stubbs is playing one level lower than Bruce and is a few years older.

  13. #27
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainHook
    Pat Watkins is the guy who immediately comes to mind.
    Pat Watkins was one of the worst Reds picks in history

    You see my point?

  14. #28
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44
    But you have to admit that it's scary that Stubbs is playing one level lower than Bruce and is a few years older.
    Not really.

    That says more about Bruce (that he's a freaking stud) than it says about Stubbs.

    Do you think Cardinals fans were scared in 2001 because the rest of their prospects were older than Albert Pujols and Albert was already wrecking major leagers? Of course not. Albert's status as a freak of nature had no bearing on the rest of their prospects. The same can be said for Jay Bruce and the rest of the Reds minor league system.

  15. #29
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    Pat Watkins was one of the worst Reds picks in history

    You see my point?
    Not really.

    As I also mentioned, Jason Larue was also a much better hitter once he left Billings, and he certainly has turned out to be a solid major leaguer. Ditto for EE (though his numbers were likely due in part to his relative youth).

    Also, I disagree that Pat Watkins was a horrible pick. The Reds screwed the pooch by holding on to him too long. They could have received good value for him in a trade if they had traded him in 1997 or 1998, and they had plenty of OF depth in the majors to make him eminently expendable. Unfortunately, JimBo's well known man-fetish for 5-tool outfielders prevented him from pulling the trigger and he kept Pat around until it was abundantly clear to everyone in MLB that he was pyrite.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 07-17-2006 at 01:02 PM.

  16. #30
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainHook
    Jason Larue was also a much better hitter once he left Billings, and he certainly has turned out to be a solid major leaguer.
    he's a marginal hitter, and defined the marginal offense that you must have from a 21 year old Billings hitter. If Stubbs can't post Larue (.273 BA, .766 OPS) numbers this year, despite having come out of a much higher profile program than the Dallas Baptist product (and with wood bat experience to boot) then he's defined his probable offensive destiny. And it wouldn't be a good one.

    Billings is a wonderful litmus test for the Reds' organization. It tells them exactly who to trade should they ever get an opportunity. It's a crystal ball.

    but if you're happy with a Watkins-type of player, then you should be pleased by underperformance


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