labeled by some. Every hitter leaving college to pros has question marks about whether or not they are "aluminum bat" hitters. Stubbs was not a consensus "bad pick," unless all you are basing it on is the draft thread, where everyone spouts off about guys they have read two sentences about either at Baseball America or on mlb.comOriginally Posted by Caveat Emperor
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
There were serious concerns as he came out of college that his power numbers would disappear with the switch away from alumnium to wood. He whiffed a ton in college too, which really shouldn't happen to a supposedly elite hitter facing middling opposition on the mound -- he led his team in strikeouts all 3 years at UT. For a college hitter, that's a bit of a red flag.
He brings other tools to the plate -- speed and defense. Both of those tools are very easily (and very cheaply) acquired elsewhere if you don't care about offensive production. His value will absolutely come from his ability to hit the baseball. There is no point in using a #8 pick to draft a defensive-replacement outfielder. His speed is nice, but it'll only help him if he either cuts down on his strikeouts and puts the ball in play more, or if he ups his discipline and takes more walks to get on. If he does that, he has a chance to be a useful player.
If he wants to justify his high draft selection, however, he simply has to figure out how to hit for power with a wood bat. We'll see if he makes the transition.
ETA: I'm not dogging Drew Stubbs. I really hope he puts it together and starts hitting well in Billings. Given his advanced age, I don't think it would be out of the ordinary for him and Bruce to get on the same track here in the very near future. That'd be fantastic if the Reds could have two bona-fide outfield prospects rising through the minors together. With Dunn being only 26, there's a very real possibility that Bruce could be manning RF and Stubbs could be manning CF as early as 2009 along with a 29 year old Adam Dunn in left. That's a great thought.
Kid just has to put it together at the dish -- I'm pulling for him to do just that.
Last edited by Caveat Emperor; 07-23-2006 at 06:18 PM.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
Why does he have to develop power to justify his draft slot? If he can play gold glove level CF and draw enough walks/HBP to post a solid OBP, he could fit in nicely as a leadoff hitter. That said, I don't think his power is going to be a problem. His bat speed and physical frame bode well for his ability to drive the ball, and he has been showing plenty of extra base power in his recent hot streak.
I still think his ceiling looks a lot like Mike Cameron. Of course, his floor is that he could be one of the 2/3 of first rounders who don't make an impact in the majors. At this point, nobody has a really good grasp on how good (or bad) he will eventually become.
I think the ultimate red flag is 1/k per game in COLLEGE with an aluminum bat. Doesn't bode well for hitting professionals with a wooden bat.
Really?
Last I checked, both MLB.com and Baseball America had him rated as a top 10 prospect before the draft. Both of those sites use scout observations as their primary data source. I remember a lot of sabremetric sites not being too enamored with Stubbs, but to the best of my recollection the scouts loved him.
Scouts love his tools and his potential, but every scout I either talked to or read anything from were very concerned as to if he ever was going to adjust to a wooden bat, or even his ability to hit at all. In my opinion, and granted its just my opinion, to be a top 10 pick, you better be able to hit in rookie ball, especially out of college. Stubbs has a ways to go before I write him off, but he has a ways to go before I start thinking about putting him anywhere in my train of thought as being near the top of our outfielders in our system.
Maybe my expectations are high, but when a player gets drafted in the #8 spot, I expect a little more. That's what I meant by justifying his draft spot. Mike Cameron has had a nice career -- but he was also an 18th round pick w/ a career OPS in the high 700s. If Drew Stubbs ended up being Mike Cameron v. 2.0, that'd be good for the Reds, but it'd still represent poor value coming from the draft position he was taken in, IMO. With a top-10 pick, you're looking for an impact player to come out as opposed to a quality defensive CF. Maybe I'm looking at this all wrong, but with that draft pick, if it's going to be a position player, I want to see Mark Teixeira or Prince Feilder, not Mike Cameron. Bad comparison, due to positions, I know -- but I think its a fair point.
And you're right, nobody has a great grasp on any of this stuff -- just getting a productive first rounder to the majors is an accomplishment enough, no matter what his ceiling is.
Last edited by Caveat Emperor; 07-23-2006 at 07:03 PM.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
I agree. If I had my druthers, the Reds would draft guys with polished bats who are raw defensively, not guys who are polished defensively but have raw bats. I mainly argue in Stubbs favor because I am tired of seeing the 'he sucks' posts, not because I agreed with the pick.
Agreed. Of course, that has less to do with my opinion of Stubbs than it does of my opinion of 1st year players in general. IMO, no player should appear on a top prospect list until he has finished at least one full season in pro ball.
Did you even look at the talent in this draft? Comparing it to other drafts and other players in the past is pointless. It was amazing how bad this class was on paper.
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
Sounds like a Bob Howsman type pick....circa the middle 70's.
They had some bad drafts in those years.....they liked to take raw tools....over actual hitting ability. As long as they had speed....they figured they could make them hitters.
Sounds like Paul Householder right now.
With the talent in this draft I had no problem with them taking the highest ceiling player.
People shouldn't be writing off Drew yet or expecting him to be a silver slugger already. With his good plate patience, speed, and defense he has time to work on his plate balance. Which is what I read was his biggest problem at this point.
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
Extensively, as a matter of fact.
Weakness of the draft class is a fair point -- but when there are other players below Stubbs who are outperforming him, it seems to underscore that maybe Stubbs was overdrafted in his position. I don't buy lack of talent in the draft; I buy good scouting, looking at the relevant numbers, and making a good pick as opposed to complaining later that there just wasn't much to be had. There is talent to be identified in every draft. No matter what sport you play -- bad teams whine about lack of talent in a draft, good teams go out and find players.
In all honesty, though, you're right -- previous drafts are a bit of a non sequitur in this argument. The debate remains whether or not Drew Stubbs was/is a good player and whether or not he is going to be able correct the flaws in his game that will make him a good prospect that can project through the system. As I said previously, it is far too early to evaluate that and probably should wait until the offseason at the very earliest.
Last edited by Caveat Emperor; 07-23-2006 at 07:34 PM.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
I think your expectations are too high.
Go back and take a look at the top 10 of any given draft and tell me how many guys ended up as better players than Mike Cameron. Better yet, just take a look at the guys from 6-10 and perform the same exercise. Let's take a look at a couple of examples:
2000 draft
#6 - Rocco Baldelli
#7 - Matt Harrington
#8 - Matt Wheatland
#9 - Mark Phillips
#10 - Joe Torres
2001 draft
#6 - RHP Josh Karp
#7 - LHP Chris Smith
#8 - RHP John Van Benschoten
#9 - RHP Colt Griffin
#10 - SS Chris Burke
Call me crazy, but I don't see a single player in that group that is better than Mike Cameron, and I see a bunch of guys that never made a dent in the majors. I am sure there are some fantastic players chosen in the 6-10 range in prior years, but the point is that they are few and far between. The MLB draft is so hit-and-miss that anytime you get an above-average major leaguer, you have done well.
Last edited by Steve4192; 07-23-2006 at 07:49 PM.
... or Eric Davis.
What Stubbs does this year is of little consequence. He has played a full college season and rookie ball is not much of a predictor either way. His most important seasons are the next two.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
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