Drew Stubbs

[Kc61]

I disagree.

He doesn't have a lot of time if he wants to crank out a 10-15 year career, but he has plenty of time to have a short but productive career.

Not everyone has to be in the majors before their 25th birthday. Sometimes, it is better (for the team) to groom a guy for a five-year window and then let him go.

All the Reds care about is getting quality production out of their draft picks, ESPECIALLY during their pre-FA years. Who cares what the guy does with the rest of his career after leaving Cincinnati?

I guess I disagree. Stubbs was the 8th highest pick in all of baseball. He was not a high school kid but a 21 year old from a top college program. The other top ten position player, Longoria, is now at High-A ball, hitting .365, and will certainly be at AA or higher next year. Stubbs is hitting 100 points lower in advanced Rookie ball.

If Stubbs has a short, productive major league career starting in his late 20's, as your post suggests, that may be ok for him, but it is not what you want from the 8th player in the draft.

People are predicting Stubbs will be like Cameron, great fielding, solid but not great hitter with some power. I hope so. But his hitting at Billings has been quite disappointing.

[flyer85]

I disagree.

He doesn't have a lot of time if he wants to crank out a 10-15 year career, but he has plenty of time to have a short but productive career.

has nothing to do with length of career but having success in a career. Guys who haven't done well at AA or above by 23 are usually no better than fringe major league players at best. There are exceptions but if he wants to have the impact one would expect of a top 10 player Stubbs needs to move and move quickly after this season. What Bruce is doing at 19 in the Midwest League portends future success while what Stubbs is doing in the Pioneer League at 21 does not.

Reds have a current wonderful example in BJ, I'd say the odds are a lot better that Stubbs will be like BJ than being a productive everyday player in the majors.

[Steve4192]

People are predicting Stubbs will be like Cameron, great fielding, solid but not great hitter with some power. I hope so.

Which is exactly why I brought up the concept of a short but productive career. Like Chris Sabo, Mike Cameron was a really good player for about five years. He is another example of a guy who was really productive in his pre-FA years and then imploded.

Guys like that don't get remembered 20 years from now, but they can be a vital component of a winning team during their peak years. If Stubbs gives the Reds five really good years at just the right time, he will have been a great pick.

[BRM]

Updated numbers - .248/.358/.360. 16 walks, 37 K's in 141 plate appearances. He also has 13 steals and has been caught twice.

[edabbs44]

It's kind of scary that Lutz and Watson have moved to Dayton and Stubbs is still lingering in Billings.

[princeton]

It's kind of scary that Lutz and Watson have moved to Dayton and Stubbs is still lingering in Billings.

it IS scary. Challenge thy hitters. Coddle thy pitchers

[Benihana]

Bring back Dan O'Brien... ONLY to run the drafts???

Say what you want about the guy but he DID have two very impressive drafts.

[edabbs44]

Bring back Dan O'Brien... ONLY to run the drafts???

Say what you want about the guy but he DID have two very impressive drafts.

Sure did. This guy Buckley pulled a very questionable draft, especially when you look at the state of the Cincinnati pitching staff over the past [enter large number here] years. When I saw Stubbs' name come up I felt nauseous...like when you knew you failed a big test and are waiting to get the grade back and have that little hope that you might have got lucky and pulled a C or something. Then...WHAM! You got a 52.

[BRM]

it IS scary. Challenge thy hitters. Coddle thy pitchers

Would you promote him right now, given his current numbers?

[edabbs44]

Would you promote him right now, given his current numbers?

I would wait for him to put together a nice stretch with some power, then move him.

If he has ML ready speed and fielding, then they will have to make a decision on his bat sooner or later. Do they think more seasoning will make him into a legit hitter? If not, then start to move him.

[Kc61]

it IS scary. Challenge thy hitters. Coddle thy pitchers

Sounds to me like young Mr. Stubbs is being challenged plenty right now. Frankly, it speaks volumes that he is not headed for Dayton and Lutz/Watson are.

Billings has a couple of hitters who could be in Dayton soon, particularly Heisey who has hit great. I think Loo should be at Dayton when healthy.

Reds draft may have been questionable at the top this year, but they did gain a lot of depth for the organization. A lot of pretty good looking prospects at Billings and GCL.

So, I'm not too critical of the draft overall. And maybe Stubbs will get it going soon.

[flyer85]

Jay Bruce as an 18 year put up better numbers in the Pioneer League than Stubbs.

[BRM]

I would wait for him to put together a nice stretch with some power, then move him.

If he has ML ready speed and fielding, then they will have to make a decision on his bat sooner or later. Do they think more seasoning will make him into a legit hitter? If not, then start to move him.

What if that stretch never happens? At some point, he needs to move up anyway, right?

[edabbs44]

What if that stretch never happens? At some point, he needs to move up anyway, right?

My point exactly. As an organization, they have to make a decision what will be his greatest value for the big team: speed/glove or bat. Many have said his CF play is GG caliber already. So do you stick him in CF before his bat is ready and hope he catches up while he hits 8th? Or let him linger in the minors and, when/if he starts to hit, then bring him up? He might be 27 or 28 by then. So the FO might have a decision to make. I say he HAS to be in Dayton by year end and maybe Sarasota to start next year, with hopes Chatt by year end 07. But if they want his bat to progress, it might be a while.

[princeton]

Would you promote him right now, given his current numbers?

no, but I wouldn't bring up the pitchers. Let 'em succeed where they are

Milton Loo is the promotion that I'd make. All the way to Dayton. Let's see what he does at night.

Make room with Jay Bruce, on his way to Sarasota