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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #91
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    This guy might not be a star, but he sure as hell isn't Matt Bush. Only time will tell if he will pan out, maybe he needs to make adjustments. The offseason is the time to make them, if he is still struggling this time next year then I will be worried.

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  3. #92
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor
    rookie ball is not much of a predictor either way.
    tut, tut

    failure to rake at Billings is a tremendous predictor
    Last edited by princeton; 07-24-2006 at 07:30 AM.

  4. #93
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor
    Maybe my expectations are high, but when a player gets drafted in the #8 spot, I expect a little more. That's what I meant by justifying his draft spot. Mike Cameron has had a nice career -- but he was also an 18th round pick w/ a career OPS in the high 700s. If Drew Stubbs ended up being Mike Cameron v. 2.0, that'd be good for the Reds, but it'd still represent poor value coming from the draft position he was taken in, IMO. With a top-10 pick, you're looking for an impact player to come out as opposed to a quality defensive CF. Maybe I'm looking at this all wrong.
    Mike Cameron is a terrific player. If Drew Stubbs is as good, then it was a worthy pick.

  5. #94
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    It seems that the Pioneer league is more of a pitching league this year than a hitting league. In the past it has been more of a hitting league, Correct?

  6. #95
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by KoryMac5
    I think a lot of people did not like this pick when it was made therefore some opinions are sure to be tilted against Stubbs no matter what he does. He has not looked great so far and has been outplayed by other members of the team (Parker and Heisey). But 21 is not ancient by any means and just a couple of days ago his batting average was at around .240 or so. Looks like he is making some adjustments so lets see where he is at the end of the year.
    Yes, a lot of fans were primed up for the Reds to pick a college pitcher, and were disappointed with a college OF. Even worse, the college OF had amazing physical tools. Some people assume this means the guy's ceiling is Deion Sanders, but actually the best players in the game have simliar tools.

    Stubbs was rated the second best position prospect in the draft. I think he was a great pick. I know we need pitching, but if you can get a possible impact CF in the draft, it's a good pick. Good up the middle players are just as rare as good starting pitching. (I know some people will disagree, but look at some of the ML rosters). It's not a bad idea to draft position players and then later trade them for pitching. As long as Wayne's guys draft promising players (as opposed to "signablity" guys), I'll be happy, regardless of the position they play.

    There have been some other justifiable complaints about this year's draft, but I don't understand why people are upset about Stubbs and predicting failure for him. Just because there was one little blurb in a scouting report that doubted he could adjust to wood bats, doesn't mean the guy is doomed. I recall another small blurb about Travis Wood getting everyone upset as well, and he's working out fine.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  7. #96
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Scouts labeled him as a bad pick. .
    Not all scouts. In all fairness, some rated him as the second best position player in the draft.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  8. #97
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Stubbs, when drafted, was regarded as a terrific athlete and a potential GG CF who many wondered if he would ever hit well enough to make it to the majors. To this point he has done nothing to alleviate the concern and instead, while playing in a notorious hitters league, has only given cause for heightened concern.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  9. #98
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD
    Not all scouts. In all fairness, some rated him as the second best position player in the draft.
    thats because of a terrible draft for position players. The stuff I read said that with his big question mark he would have been a late first round or supplemental pick in most years.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  10. #99
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor
    Maybe my expectations are high, but when a player gets drafted in the #8 spot, I expect a little more. That's what I meant by justifying his draft spot. Mike Cameron has had a nice career -- but he was also an 18th round pick w/ a career OPS in the high 700s. If Drew Stubbs ended up being Mike Cameron v. 2.0, that'd be good for the Reds, but it'd still represent poor value coming from the draft position he was taken in, IMO. .
    I guess I disagree with you here. If the Reds could get a Mike Cameron level talent out of the first round every year, they'd be one of the better farm systems in baseball. Cameron had a great career, when you factor in his amazing defense. I think people underestimate the value of a premium defensive player sometimes, particularly one that can hit at an above average level. Obviously, not every player on the team has to slug like Dunn to contribute. Cameron was a huge part of the 1999 success.

    I'll be happy as a clam if Stubbs becomes Cameron Jr. That would easily make him the best draft pick since Dunn. Consider how much a gold glove centerfielder would help our pitching.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  11. #100
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD
    I'll be happy as a clam if Stubbs becomes Cameron Jr. That would easily make him the best draft pick since Dunn. Consider how much a gold glove centerfielder would help our pitching.
    What about if Bailey pans out? I know it's a big if, but so is Stubbs.

  12. #101
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Stubbs pick reminds me a lot of the Dan Wilson pick in 1990, which was also too high for a non-bat but in hindsight turned out to be reasonable given the low quality of that draft's first round.

    http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...n-wilson.shtml

    the real gem that round was Mike Mussina, taken 13 picks later. But Wilson was much better than most of the other selections.

  13. #102
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    thats because of a terrible draft for position players. The stuff I read said that with his big question mark he would have been a late first round or supplemental pick in most years.
    Fair enough, there was little position player talent to get. However, we have to draft the best guy we can this year. If Stubbs would've slid to the 4th round in better years, that's no reason to pass on him.

    For whatever reason, Wayne's guys liked Stubbs better than the college arms that were available. Only time will tell. Personally, I'm glad we are changing strategy in the draft. We had about 5 years where it seemed we spent 75% of our high picks on pitchers, and we have almost nothing to show for it. Maybe it's better for our organization to focus on using high picks for position players, since we have had success developing those. In the long run, the purpose of the draft is to add talent. That talent can be traded for pitching later. We had to change the previous strategy, because the previous strategy has added virtually nothing marketable to our farm (other than Homer/Wood).

    Maybe Stubbs will flop, but I'm not going to panic. If the scouts were right that his swing needed adjusted, then perhaps that's what they are doing in Billings and it will take time to see results. I like the guy's upside, and am excited about him.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #103
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44
    What about if Bailey pans out? I know it's a big if, but so is Stubbs.
    I agree, Bailey might ultimately end up better than Stubbs. I was comparing a Mike Cameron clone to all the picks we've had that made it to the bigs. I didn't intend to imply that Homer was a bust.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #104
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Stubbs still has time, but not a lot of it. He needs to establish himself in AA in 2008 to have a decent shot at major league success.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  16. #105
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    Stubbs still has time, but not a lot of it. He needs to establish himself in AA in 2008 to have a decent shot at major league success.
    I disagree.

    He doesn't have a lot of time if he wants to crank out a 10-15 year career, but he has plenty of time to have a short but productive career.

    Not everyone has to be in the majors before their 25th birthday. Sometimes, it is better (for the team) to groom a guy for a five-year window and then let him go. Chris Sabo took his own sweet time getting to the majors, but he gave the Reds one heck a nice five-year run before he got expensive and his career fell apart. Chris Denorfia will probably never be remembered as an all-time great, but he might give the Reds an above average bat on the cheap for the next five years. Guys like Sabo & Denorfia have a TON of value for clubs operating on a budget.

    All the Reds care about is getting quality production out of their draft picks, ESPECIALLY during their pre-FA years. Who cares what the guy does with the rest of his career after leaving Cincinnati?
    Last edited by Steve4192; 07-25-2006 at 02:17 PM.


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