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Thread: Adam Dunn (or why BA doesn't matter)

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Adam Dunn (or why BA doesn't matter)

    I was just checking Dunn's game log to check this homer tear and saw something interesting. The following is plagued with sample size issues (and other things such as where he was hitting in the batting order). However, I think it illustrates some macro level points that are often missed by people who don't go by Cyclone or Steel, or don't have the interest in digging in to the piles of evidence they provide along this line.

    April: .265/.432/.614 (.182 ISO SLG, 17 RBI, .20 RBI/AB)
    May: .212/.328/.535 (.207 ISO SLG, 15 RBI, .15 RBI/AB)
    June: .221/.368/.537 (.169 ISO SLG, 20 RBI, .21 RBI/AB)
    July: .319/.360/.553 (.193 ISO SLG, 11 RBI, .23 RBI/AB)

    This does NOT include today's 2-3 with a walk and a homer. A couple of interesting things come up here. Firstly, Dunn's extra base hits don't slump. Sometimes he gets more singles or a few more (or less) walks, but he always hits for power. Secondly, his RBI rate is fairly consistent. Guess what? These things are related.

    Even when Dunn is "slumping" and hitting .212 for the month, he still drives people in because when he gets hits, they accomplish things.

    Then there's something else to check out, runs. Let's just look at OBP.

    April: .432, 25 runs (.23 R/PA)
    May: .328, 13 runs (.11 R/PA)
    June: .368, 19 runs (.16 R/PA)
    July: .360, 8 runs (.16 R/PA)

    So when we see that Dunn is on a tear and still batting under .250, let's remember the following 2 points:

    1.) Isolated Slugging % = driving in runs
    2.) On Base % = scoring runs

    At the most base level, these are the two things a player can accomplish offensively and Dunn is very good at both.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn (or why BA doesn't matter)

    then there's also this to go along with it

    Month/SecA
    April/651
    May/505
    June/547
    July/370 (that includes today)
    the store for all your blade, costuming (in any regard), leather (also in any regard), and steel craft needs.www.facebook.com/tdhshop


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  4. #3
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn (or why BA doesn't matter)

    No offense to anyone here, but this horse gets beaten as much as the other side of the conversation. Again, no offense.

  5. #4
    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn (or why BA doesn't matter)

    What I notice is that his worst month(May) was also the teams worst offensive month.

  6. #5
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    Re: Adam Dunn (or why BA doesn't matter)

    No point to debate this further. Everyone has different stats they think are most important. Besides, Dunn's BA is increasing. It was below .220 and now it's .248. I think he's hitting great.

  7. #6
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn (or why BA doesn't matter)

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44
    No offense to anyone here, but this horse gets beaten as much as the other side of the conversation. Again, no offense.
    Oh well, there are plenty of horses to go around.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #7
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    Re: Adam Dunn (or why BA doesn't matter)

    I think there is little difference because he is now batting 2nd. No one seems to be on base in front of him. Lately it has been the pitcher, Denorfia and Wise batting in front of him. Who in the world is he going to drive in?? Bat him 3rd I say, let someone else get on in front of him.

  9. #8
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn (or why BA doesn't matter)

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51
    I think there is little difference because he is now batting 2nd. No one seems to be on base in front of him. Lately it has been the pitcher, Denorfia and Wise batting in front of him. Who in the world is he going to drive in?? Bat him 3rd I say, let someone else get on in front of him.
    When Hatteberg plays 1st:
    Deno/Freel
    Hatte
    Dunn
    Junior
    Edwin
    BP
    Clayton
    LaRue

    When RA plays 1st:
    Freel/Deno
    Dunn
    Griffey
    Edwin
    Rich
    BP
    Clayton
    LaRue

    When Hatteberg doesn't play, this team doesn't have a 2 hitter. You could put Edwin there, but he needs to be protecting Griffey or Dunn so they get to see something to hit. So when Rich plays I say leave Dunn in the 2 hole.

    Either way Narron must use our best offensive players as often as possible. I wouldn't mind see Rich take some of Clayton's time at SS either.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  10. #9
    Member smith288's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn (or why BA doesn't matter)

    Dunn strikes out too much.


  11. #10
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    Re: Adam Dunn (or why BA doesn't matter)

    Quote Originally Posted by smith288
    Dunn strikes out too much.

    And he never hits sac flies!
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  12. #11
    WAGS
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    Re: Adam Dunn (or why BA doesn't matter)

    he's not scrappy enough!


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