Top 20 PRE-SEASON Reds Prospects in Review

[Elam]

Courtesy of John Sickels at minorleagueball.com:

Reds Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects
By John Sickels
Posted on Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 01:38:16 PM CST


Elizardo Ramirez

Top 20 PRE-SEASON Reds Prospects in Review

This is the PRE-SEASON list. That means it was generated BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED and that the grades were PRE-SEASON. Anyone complaining about the grades based on 2006 performance will be smacked up the side of the head with a Gookie Dawkins autographed bat.

1) Homer Bailey, RHP, Grade B+
Is 4-0, 0.75 in four starts since being promoted to Double-A Chattanooga. On a real roll right now. Combination of plus stuff and improved command makes him a dominator.

2) Travis Wood, LHP, Grade B
6-2, 4.14 in 18 starts for Class A Dayton, 88/37 K/BB in 87 innings, 68 hits allowed. Holding his own, good K/IP mark.

3) Jay Bruce, OF, Grade B
Hitting .315/.383/.563 in 90 games for Dayton, with 36 doubles and 13 homers and 14 steals. Breakout campaign establishing him as one of the best outfield prospects in the game.

4) B.J. Szymanski, OF, B-
Hitting .238/.315/.428 in 86 games for Dayton, 18 steals and 13 homers. Power and speed, but horrible contact problems as shown by 123 strikeouts.

5) Phil Dumatrait, LHP, B-
Combined 6-7, 3.99 in 17 starts combined between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville. 68/32 K/BB in 90 innings isn't that good. Needs more time in the minors.

6) Chris Denorfia, OF, C+
Hitting .347/.409/.454 with 14 steals for Louisville. Replacing the traded Austin Kearns in the Reds outfield. 7-for-22 (.318) so far.

7) Tyler Pelland, LHP, C+
5-3, 3.46 ERA in 19 starts for Chattanooga, 72/58 K/BB in 96 innings, 100 hits allowed. Good ERA but his components aren't that hot. Note too-high walk rate. Still an interesting pitcher.

8) Joey Votto, 1B, C+
Hitting .324/.401/.582 for Chattanooga, much better than last year. Has even stolen 15 bases. Overall numbers have revived his prospect status. Move him well up the list.

9) Justin Germano, RHP, C+
3.93 ERA in 17 starts for Louisville, 64/21 K/BB in 110 innings. Classic finesse strike thrower.

10) Zach Ward, RHP, C+
7-0, 2.45 in 16 starts for Dayton, 91/29 K/BB in 103 innings, just 67 hits and 2 homers allowed. Looks good!

11) Sam Lecure, RHP, C+
3.56 ERA, 81/27 K/BB in 91 innings for Class A Sarasota. Solid all-around performance but not spectacular.

12) Bobby Basham, RHP, C+
Traded to San Diego, on the DL at Double-A Mobile.

13) Adam Rosales, SS, C+
Combined .240/.327/.404 in 59 games between Dayton and Sarasota. Nothing to get really excited about there.

14) Jeff Stevens, RHP, C+
Traded to the Indians system. Combined 4.96 ERA and 62/26 K/BB between Dayton and Lake County. Decent strikeout rate but not much else.

15) William Bergolla, 2B, C
Hitting .254/.285/.333 in 74 games for Louisville. Performance is inadequate right now to deserve a full shot in the majors.

16) Travis Chick, RHP, C
Traded to Seattle. 5-5, 4.37 in 18 starts combined between Chattanooga and Double-A San Antonio. A fair prospect, nothing more.

17) Elizardo Ramirez, RHP, C
3-6, 4.16 in 14 starts for the Reds, 55/19 K/BB in 84 innings. This is in line with expectation.

18) Rafael Gonzalez, RHP, C
Just activated from extended spring, has pitched 15 innings for Billings in the Pioneer League, allowing 12 hits and six runs. Sample too small to mean much.

19) James Avery, RHP, C
5-6, 5.31 in 18 starts for Sarasota, 57/34 K/BB in 88 innings, 95 hits and 11 homers allowed. Components are not impressive and his status has slipped.

20) Miguel Perez, C, C
Hitting .251/.300/.319 in 77 games for Chattanooga. Not much pop, low OBP, won't hit enough to be a regular without dramatic improvement.

Comment:
Bailey and Bruce are an outstanding 1-2 prospect combination. Votto's resurgence is a good thing to see, and I still like Travis Wood. Otherwise the system seems to lack some depth, with several of the sleeper prospects not panning out this year.

[thatcoolguy_22]

I would like to see a midseason top 20 with updated grades. Anyone have any opinions on the current top?

[dougdirt]

I like the work John does with his site, dont always agree with him but he runs a really good site. I wish the grades and rankings were updated, but I would guess that is a lot of work for John to do, so I understand it.

[HermW]

I understand that this is just looking at the pre-season top 20, but you almost have to mention Cueto if you are going to talk about full system. There is no question that a system that was questionable to start the year now has two bona fide or near bona fide A prospects in Bailey and Bruce (they were both ???) and that there is considerably more depth than anticipated with Wood looking solid (though not nearly as spectacular as last year), the re-emergence of Votto and the emergence of Cueto and Ward. Plus, Ramirez and Denorfia have to be considered to be better than projected, particularly Ramirez who is No. 17 prospect with a near 4.00 ML ERA at age 23. I would be shocked if Lecure and other Reds SP prospects ahead of Ramirez on the list could get close to have a 4.00 ML ERA after 10+ starts.

[Steve4192]

Given Sickels stats-heavy rating system, I am surprised he didn't have Deno rated higher. I know he is a little old and doesn't have the highest upside in the world, but his downside is also minimal. IMO, Deno is a lock to be a quality league-average CF (750 OPS, solid defense) for the next five years.

Deno's not the kind of guy you build a team around, but he is a great guy to plug in the lineup for a few years and not have to worry about getting solid production out of his position.

[Willie0023]

How in the world do you give Ward a C+, and then say he looks good? What more does Ward have to do.

[Steve4192]

How in the world do you give Ward a C+, and then say he looks good? What more does Ward have to do.

The 'C+' is his pre-season prospect grade, not a grade on his performance this season.

Sickels is a pretty tough grader too. He definitely believes in the bell curve. He will usually only have a handful of guys rated B+ and above, and will often go years without giving out anything higher than an A-. In his system, the vast majority of decent but not spectacular prospects grade out with a C+ or a B-.

[Aronchis]

Actually Wood's era is 3.72.................

Cueto wasn't even on the radar pre-season, so I am not surprised he wasn't mentioned in the pre-season top 20 report.

Looks like the Reds system is top heavy full of primadonna's who would probably rate as "Franchise" futures. I think that has been debated(deep system vs. top heavy "superstar' prospects with little depth) on Redszone before.

Dunn is the only guy the Reds have that probably could be called a 'franchise' player. Which is why the Reds are hesistant to trade him.

[Nugget]

The good things is that from the list Krivs has traded away guys who are either DL or a fair prospect for guys who are contributing to the REDS now.