Mike Pelfrey Scouting Report July 9, 2006
With Mike Pelfrey debuting yesterday - and a Seth McClung/Pelfrey deal NOT looming on the horizon - it seems appropriate to offer a scouting report on the guy who’s suddenly become significant in ‘06 now that Lima-time is over.
So, I’ll start with the basics. Pelfrey, the 9th overall pick in the 2005 draft, played 3 years of college ball at Wichita State. He was 12-3 with a 1.93 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 143:30 K:BB over 139 IP in his draft year, earning his way to the top of the college hurlers hot sheet. The Mets started him off at A-St.Lucie to start ‘06. He was 2-1, 1.64 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 26:2 K:BB in 22 IP. He moved up to AA-Binghamton, where he went 4-2, 2.72 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 77:26 K:BB in 66 IP, with 60 hits allowed. Pretty good numbers for a 22-year-old moving up the ladder, and enough to earn a spot-start for a Mets team running away with its division.
Pelfrey’s 6′7″, 190, and at 22 fits the pitching mould perfectly. He looks exactly like a pre-TJ surgery Kris Benson, featuring a 92-96 fastball and slider, but he’s extremely raw and definitely not ready for big-league action. I know he was nervous in his debut, but his slider looked like it needs some work, and his fastball was straight. I didn’t see a change or curve, but you’ve got to figure they’re a couple years away from big-league ready. Most GMs say a pitcher needs 200+ IP in the minors, and Pelfrey’s had less-than-one-hundred.
I think he throws a 2-seamer, but it’s not the Brandon Webb-kind. His other offerings are average right now, but my guess is that he uses that mid-90s fastball to average around 160-170 Ks over a full-season. And it’s not a high-90s fastball, it’s a low-mid 90s fastball. If Pelfrey’s a #1 starter in the majors, he’s about six or seven years away from assuming that mantle. Right now he’s a project as a #5, and it’ll be at least a couple of years before fantasy players start mining him for stats.
There are some hitters in the NL-East, but it’s still a pitchers’ league. Pelfrey could easily become a good #3 in the next few years, but the Benson similarities - the flat fastball, foremost - just make me question whether this guy is really as good as some scouts and fans want to believe. He’s not Liriano, and he’s guaranteed to need development time at the MLB-level.
Mike Pelfrey Scouting Report