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Thread: Wickman To The Braves

  1. #61
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44
    Obviously FeLo isn't that overvalued, since he didn't bring much in return.
    Hardly a true barometer of a player's abilities or value.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

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  3. #62
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD

    And I'm not sure you've noticed an inconsistency in your thought process. If Lopez isn't at all valuable- meaning he was worth what the Reds got for him- then why would a player of such low value project to become "really expensive"? Answer? He wouldn't. In fact, the only way Felipe Lopez is ready to get really expensive is if he's much better than you give him credit for.

    Can't have it both ways. Either Lopez isn't any good, has little trade value, and projects a lower future paycheck that'll reflect his performance or Lopez is good, has more trade value, and projects a higher future paycheck that'll relect his performance.

    That's not noise. That's logic.
    I don't agree. The arb market often focuses on crap like being an all star. He is going to get a big payday whether he is worth it or not and as I'm not convinced he'd be a very good second baseman either he looks like a light hitting third baseman to me. The Reds don't need to pay 4 million + for that.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  4. #63
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves

    Lopez is being paid 2.7 and is simply not going to double that should he be the player you and pedro contend he is.
    If he plays SS it sure could, because his arb comparisons will focus on SS, not second baseman.

  5. #64
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by registerthis
    Hardly a true barometer of a player's abilities or value.
    More sarcasm than truth, but I still believe part of that. Overvalued how? By his salary? There are far more overvalued players on this roster than Lopez. If we wanted to go through the roster, Jr and Milton are the first to the chopping block.

  6. #65
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves


  7. #66
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44
    FeLo's on pace to up his walk total from 57 to 86 in one season. How come no one is talking about him avoiding outs, scoring runs, etc etc etc?
    Here are two players' 2006 road splits:

    .246/.333/.372
    .278/.333/.367

    Which one is FeLo and which one is Royce Clayton?

    How come no one is talking about this?

  8. #67
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by D-Man
    Here are two players' 2006 road splits:

    .246/.333/.372
    .278/.333/.367

    Which one is FeLo and which one is Royce Clayton?

    How come no one is talking about this?
    Thank you for proving my point. You can cherry pick stats and mold them into whatever your heart desires for most players. There aren't many players who hit well on the road, at home, with no one on, with RISP, with RISP/2 outs, vs LHPs, vs RHPs, etc etc etc.

  9. #68
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by CTA513
    Now now..no sleeping through a thread.

    It's impressive his walks are going up, but his EBH's are taking a nose dive, one year weirdness? maybe.
    Go Gators!

  10. #69
    "So Fla Red"
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    If Lopez finishes strong and repeats his 2005 season, he's a player worth having at that cost. If he's much less valuable (as you and pedro contend), then he's not going to get a bump to those figures. Heck, Brian Roberts posted a .902 OPS last season and he asked (yes, asked) for only 3.6 mil and settled for around 3.0 mil. Lopez is being paid 2.7 and is simply not going to double that should he be the player you and pedro contend he is.

    In any case, he didn't have to be moved immediately if he had to be moved. There wasn't some kind of "last chance" sign hanging around Lopez' neck. If the Reds wanted to "avoid" paying Lopez over the next two seasons, they had the rest of this year, this offseason, next season, and next offseason to move him.
    The same Brian Roberts that went from $390K in '05 to $3.0M this season (a mere 750% annual increase)... Felo leaps from 415K to 2.7M in 2006 behind a breakout year. While he won't get a 2X+ type bonanza next year with his middling 2006 numbers, it is safe to say with the MLB Arbitration a.k.a. MLB Peter Principle scheme he'll do no worse then end up ~$4M in 2007. Do I want to pay for a career .740 OPS SS (or even worse maybe a 2B/3B or OF masquerading as a SS in an arb hearing) with poor defensive skills 4M+ going forward? Not a chance.

    C'mon man, you know how the arb game works. It's the greatest thing ever for average and slightly above average players in years 4, 5 and 6 of service time. It goes in increments with each year getting prohibitively more expensive. All you need is that one breakout year to get the salary reset to the $2.5-3M range and then it is gravy time from there -- a one way ticket skyward. Since the average starting position salary in baseball is in the ~$4-6M range all you need to do is hang around as an average asset and gather enough service time on the clock (mixing in a nice one year pop like Felo to get that huge escalation is all the better) and you quickly become death to virtually any small/mid market team.

    Did Lopez need to be moved immediately -- of course not, but the fact remains that the Reds got the best performance/value years for both Kearns/Lopez as they keep getting more expensive. 4.6 years of good value from Kearns and 3.6 pretty good ones for Lopez. Whether the Reds got the right return for them at this point in time remains TBD, but the value/performance window for these two guys was diminishing at an accelerating rate. Personally I would have liked to hold out on Jimbo with Kearns for Bray/Maj right now and then 100% for sure dump Felo in the offseason, but I'm not sure his value would have been all that great then given his return to a pedestrian career OPS norm and his growing reputation as a defensive hack.

  11. #70
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves

    Scott Boros
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

  12. #71
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by CTA513
    Oh go find another thread to doze off in...
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  13. #72
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro
    I don't agree. The arb market often focuses on crap like being an all star. He is going to get a big payday whether he is worth it or not and as I'm not convinced he'd be a very good second baseman either he looks like a light hitting third baseman to me. The Reds don't need to pay 4 million + for that.
    And the trade market doesn't focus on crap like being a former All Star? I understand you're not convinced that he'd make a transition to 2B, but you're not even considering it. Nor are you considering that Lopez is moving into his age-prime seasons. There's a good deal of probability on Lopez' side at his age, but you're omitting all of it right now.

    Lopez' PECOTA projects him to be worth 5.125 mil and 5.325 mil over Replacement Player in 2007 and 2008. And Replacement Player is what the Reds are running out to his position right now with no improvment in sight. Considering our options, Lopez projects to be worth 10 million bucks more than what the Reds have over the next two seasons. Oh, sure the Reds could go find something better than that I suppose. But you have to pay resources (either players, money, or both) to do that as well.

    And the point remains that the Reds didn't need to pay even as much as four million bucks to Lopez for next season. They could trade him at any point before then.

    Quote Originally Posted by woy
    If he plays SS it sure could, because his arb comparisons will focus on SS, not second baseman.
    And if it got that far (actually to an arbiter table), wouldn't his defensive shortcomings and volatile hitting (assuming he would have continued at his current pace) figure into the mix? Absolutely they would.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  14. #73
    Harry Chiti Fan registerthis's Avatar
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44
    More sarcasm than truth, but I still believe part of that. Overvalued how? By his salary? There are far more overvalued players on this roster than Lopez.
    I'm not sure that there are. Who's overvaluing Milton? No one. Who thinks Junior's contract is commensurate with his production? No one. Anyway, for this discussion I'm saying that Lopez has been overvalued in terms of this trade. I greatly dislike the deal as it was made, but I think Lopez - Bray would have been fine.

    I just have no idea why Hatteberg was brought into the discussion. There's no irony in people thinking that hatteberg is being undervalued and Lopez is being overvalued--there's a very strong case to be made for each.
    We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.

  15. #74
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves

    And if it got that far (actually to an arbiter table), wouldn't his defensive shortcomings and volatile hitting (assuming he would have continued at his current pace) figure into the mix? Absolutely they would.
    Yet the reverse situation won Brian Hunter 2.4 in 2000 over the Mariners offer of 1.5.

    It's voodoo in them swamps.

  16. #75
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Wickman To The Braves

    I just have no idea why Hatteberg was brought into the discussion.


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