Homer Bailey in the middle of another gem...

[IslandRed]

I have heard lot of things over the years as well, and I'm no expert. I'm not a student of the game, but if you have a "live" fastball, and can locate said pitch, that your other pitches don't need to be good.

Is that still true?

Well... yes and no.

I think people aren't exactly right when they say "you have to have other pitches to keep hitters from sitting on the fastball." Not when talking about an elite fastball. From everything I've ever heard coming out of hitters' mouths, if a pitcher's fastball is sufficiently fast, they HAVE to sit on it to have a chance, and they hope to be able to adjust to the offspeed stuff.

So for a pitcher like Bailey, the offspeed stuff isn't about keeping hitters from sitting on his fastball, it's about making them pay for sitting on it. And that's where the quality of the pitch comes in.

[Marc D]

Well... yes and no.

I think people aren't exactly right when they say "you have to have other pitches to keep hitters from sitting on the fastball." Not when talking about an elite fastball. From everything I've ever heard coming out of hitters' mouths, if a pitcher's fastball is sufficiently fast, they HAVE to sit on it to have a chance, and they hope to be able to adjust to the offspeed stuff.

So for a pitcher like Bailey, the offspeed stuff isn't about keeping hitters from sitting on his fastball, it's about making them pay for sitting on it. And that's where the quality of the pitch comes in.

Agree 100% and the way you make them pay for guessing(or keep them from it) is to have other pitches that you can throw for strikes on any count. Thats really the essence to the whole thing.

Also when discussing "elite" fastballs, remember its more about movement than pure MPH. You can literally throw a ball 100 mph and if its straight as a string, MLB hitters will kill it.

I have a friend who could throw high 90's and was left handed. He had a very short MLB career(by lefty standards). By his own admission, his demise was due to hitters sitting dead red and to lack of great movement. His brother threw just as hard but had zero movement so he never even made the bigs. Both could tell you stories about dozens of other flame throwers who never even made it as far as they did.

Then you see the Arroyo's of the world and it becomes really clear. Keep the hitters honest by having multiple pitches you can control, and will throw at any time, and the odds swing very favorably toward the pitcher even if he has a mediocre fastball. If he's got a killer fastball and can drop a curve at any time for an out its scary. Add in a change that he trusts, and looks exactly like his fastball when delivered, then its almost unfair.

[CRedsLarkin11]

Does anybody know his probable start dates? I'd like to ride over and take a look at him sometime.

[michst]

Just a cool little lightning round in a chat on ESPN with Jim Callis:

"wendell: best stuff in the minors?

Jim Callis: Homer Bailey.

"

[lollipopcurve]

So you can select any attribute you want and then have an enormous sucess rate in predicting failure based on that attribute, be it brushing your teeth or "aggressive promotion".

Amen, Jax.

[lollipopcurve]

If he's got a killer fastball and can drop a curve at any time for an out its scary. Add in a change that he trusts, and looks exactly like his fastball when delivered, then its almost unfair.

Verlander territory.

I think that's the direction they're trying to push Bailey in.

[puca]

I want to see him in September............of 2011

By 2011, I'm hoping to see him in late October myself.

[kaldaniels]

My attitude is this...if we have a decent shot in September at the playoffs (some seem to forget how long ago our last playoff visit was), we call him up, and hope to catch lightning in a bottle and ride it to the WS. Go for broke!!!

[cincyinco]

Sure worked with the angels and Krod..

[NewEraReds]

I've always been on the don't rush him boat. But if he continues this kind of domination in AA for the rest of this season and starts off the April and May next season in AAA in the same fashion, then he really has nothing left to prove in the majors. But this year should be completely out, IMO.

ask milwaukees closer how it is in the bigs when all you throw is a 97mph fastball. you can get by it in aa, not in the bigs. let this kid learn how to pitch and to control other pitches and learn to do all the things he will need to do to be the pitcher we all think he can be when he gets to cincy

[Marc D]

ask milwaukees closer how it is in the bigs when all you throw is a 97mph fastball. you can get by it in aa, not in the bigs. let this kid learn how to pitch and to control other pitches and learn to do all the things he will need to do to be the pitcher we all think he can be when he gets to cincy

Turnbows issue is more a lack of control imo. He can't throw anything but a fastball for a strike and his fastball catches too much of the plate when he does get it over.

The net result is that right now hitters know its either going to be a fastball right down broadway(albeit 98mph) or a ball. Tough to make a living pitching like that.

[MWM]

In all fairness, Turnbow was never that good even in the minors. He was a starter his first three years down there, and when he was a year older than Homer, he was still in A ball. That year as a 21 year old is the only good year he had in the minors. He wasn't very good at all the rest of the time.

[kaldaniels]

When is Bailey's next start???