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Thread: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

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    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    July 19, 2006

    The Texas Rangers and the Cincinnati Reds Among The Teams To Fade

    In last week's column, I looked at the teams that should have value in the second half of the season, rather than the normal upcoming week format. This week it is time for the “duds,” teams that I feel will slide in the second half.

    Texas: The Rangers finished the first half of the season at two games above .500, which is remarkable to me given the state of their pitching staff. Their offense hasn't even been that great, ranking seventh in the American League in runs scored. The Rangers are actually likely to get better on offense in the second half, as several of their key hitters are below their normal output. Even if they do score more runs, they are going to give up a lot more than they did in the first half, as the Texas heat will begin to take its toll on the pitchers. The Rangers have already used nine starting pitchers this season, and they enter the second half with a rotation of Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, two rookies and a stopgap veteran in John Wasdin. This is easily the worst rotation in the division, and the other teams in the American League West have a lot more upside than the Rangers. With Seattle, Oakland and the Los Angels Angels all playing better toward the end of the first half, the Rangers should slide to the bottom of the division by season's end.

    Cincinnati: The Reds would have made this list even before trading two of their regulars for two middle relievers, but now it will be even tougher on them to stay above the .500 mark. Cincinnati ended the break at 45-44, then swept four games from the Rockies to open the second half, but I don’t expect these winning ways to continue. This is another team that just doesn't have enough proven pitching to keep up their current pace. The three new relievers on their roster, Eddie Guardado, Gary Majewski and Bill Bray, are not enough to offset the loss of offense from trading Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo give the Reds two solid starters, but behind those two, there is nothing but question marks with Eric Milton, Joe Mays and whoever is in the fifth spot. Expect the Reds to have their normal second-half swoon and wind up behind St. Louis, Houston and Milwaukee in the National League Central.

    Arizona: The theme of this week's column is teams with a lack of pitching, and Arizona certainly fits the bill. The Diamondbacks had one remarkable stretch in May, winning 23 of 32 games, but they were just 20-36 otherwise in the first half. They are also working with a rotation that is very weak, with just one starter with an ERA below 4.91. Brandon Webb has been tremendous thus far, going 10-3 with a 2.52 ERA, but he can only pitch every fifth game. The rest of the rotation consists of Claudio Vargas, Miguel Batista and two rookies, Edgar Gonzalez, and Enrique Gonzalez. The Diamondbacks have used 10 starters already, and their overworked bullpen has also been in a state of flux all year. Arizona is like Texas in that the Diamondbacks just don't have any other pitching options. There are no prospects in the minor leagues, and no one is coming back from an injury. The Diamondbacks have overachieved to play .500 baseball thus far, and the rest of the season will be a struggle to stay at that mark.

    Baltimore: The Orioles are yet another team with three holes in its starting rotation and no one of any promise ready to play. The Orioles finished the first half eight games below the .500 mark, and with three heavyweights and up-and-coming Tampa Bay in their division, it will be tough for them to avoid dropping even more below the .500 mark. Erik Bedard is becoming a star, but behind him only Kris Benson has an ERA below 5.00. Rodrigo Lopez and his 6.77 ERA is the third starter, and Daniel Cabrera has yet to develop any command as the fourth starter. The fifth spot is up for grabs, and no help appears to be on the horizon. The lack of starting pitching has overworked the bullpen as well, with six pitchers appearing in 29 games or more already. The Orioles offense is just average and not capable of scoring enough runs to compete with their poor pitching. The Orioles have a solid core with Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora and Miguel Tejada, but the rest of the lineup contains too many holes, especially compared to the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees. Even Tampa Bay's lineup is much more promising now that the Devil Rays are healthy. There is talk about the Orioles willing to ship just about anyone on the roster for the right price. Teams don’t stage second-half rallies when the front office is in that state of mind. It certainly looks like it will be a long second half for the Orioles.
    http://www.sportsmemo.com/handicappe.../articles/715/
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

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    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    Why do people act like we traded Babe Ruth and Joe Dimaggio? Lopez was having a season at the plate that is not overwhelmingly better than Clayton, and Kearns was solid but not spectacular. So many people talking about this trade have either a) not watched the Reds b) can't read statistics or c)both.

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    Member crazybob60's Avatar
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    Re: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    I can see the Diamondbacks and Texas being on this list, but ranking them right up there with the Reds, well I don't see that, sorry.

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    Re: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    Quote Originally Posted by crazybob60
    I can see the Diamondbacks and Texas being on this list, but ranking them right up there with the Reds, well I don't see that, sorry.
    What? You expect the Reds to be bigger duds or vise versa?

    Rem

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    Member tripleaaaron's Avatar
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    Re: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    Quote Originally Posted by TeamBoone
    Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo give the Reds two solid starters, but behind those two, there is nothing but question marks with Eric Milton, Joe Mays and whoever is in the fifth spot.
    He obviously doesn't even know our roster that well, just scanned it this week and has prob. never even heard of the Lizard, saying Mays is our 4th starter, hah, well it is still kinda shaky but not as bad as he makes it,
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    The wino and I know bucksfan's Avatar
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    Re: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    Quote Originally Posted by tripleaaaron
    He obviously doesn't even know our roster that well, just scanned it this week and has prob. never even heard of the Lizard, saying Mays is our 4th starter, hah, well it is still kinda shaky but not as bad as he makes it,
    Exactly what I thought. Hard to give much (any) credence to someone's opinion who does not even know the roster of the team he is discussing.
    "I'm virtually free to do whatever I want, but I try to remember so is everybody else..." - Todd Snider

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    Re: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    It's pretty clear most critics/analysts are pessmistic about the Reds' chances after the trade. The one thing I do agree with the writer on though is starting pitching. The Reds desperately need another decent starting pitcher if they plan to contend. I just don't see how they can sustain the record they have (even with the improved bullpen) any other way.
    Last edited by fearofpopvol1; 07-22-2006 at 12:41 AM.

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    I Still Miss Sean Casey
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    Re: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    As a Rangers and Reds fan, I take exception to that article.

    The current Rangers team is having a winning road trip in a post All-Star break stretch that includes trips to Baltimore, Toronto, Boston and Chicago. Past Ranger teams usually struggled on trips right after the All-Star break so I take this current stretch as a good sign. While the A's and Angels' recent track record speaks for themselves, there's still no way the Rangers will finish last in that division. They're better than the Mariners, and while they may not end up winning the division, I think Texas is going to be in this thing when it's all said and done.

    As for the Reds, well, that guy must not have seen Everyday Eddie pitch for us yet.
    "And this one belongs to the Reds."

  10. #9
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    These "analysts" "experts" "turds," whatever you want to call them have been saying it all season...

    Guess what....they're still here, guys!

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    Bada Bing cincy09's Avatar
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    Re: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    WE belive
    2006 Redszone Prospect Draft - Johnny Cueto
    2007 Redszone Prospect Draft - Pedro Viola, Alexis Oliveras
    2007 Redszone Mock Draft - 1st (27) Michael Burgess, Supp. (60) Wes Roemer, 2nd (92) Barry Enright, 3rd (122) Jonathan Bachanov
    2009 Redszone Mock Draft - 1st (9) Shelby Miller, 2nd (58) Marc Krauss, 3rd (89) Daniel Fields

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    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1
    It's pretty clear most critics/analysts are pessmistic about the Reds' chances after the trade. The one thing I do agree with the writer on though is starting pitching. The Reds desperately need another decent starting pitcher if they plan to contend. I just don't see how they can sustain the record they have (even with the improved bullpen) any other way.
    My feelings exactly

    We can't hope to stay in this hoping Harang and Arroyo never have bad games, Milton? Mays? EZ is decent, but we need better from the other 2 spots.
    Go Gators!

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    Baseball card addict MrCinatit's Avatar
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    Re: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    Ramirez has had a couple of bumps recently...but he is not deserving of a "whoever fills the fifth spot" cap.
    Those who follow the team know Mays/Claussen are the number five starters. Those who do not follow the team...well...read the article.

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    Re: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    Someone should send this clown an email and ask him if he has any inside info on why the Reds are skipping 4th starter Joe Mays, whenever possible. Tell him it seems the Reds and the Reds media is quite quiet on the issue.

    He probably saw that Ramirez was demoted to A ball before the all star break, took that to mean the kid was a long way away, called his buddy who had Elizardo on his fantasy team and told him to dump him because he was sent to A ball and then he probably moved Joe Mays up on his dorky Reds depth chart. Then when EL came back up he probably figured that was because they just don't have anyone else.

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    Quote Originally Posted by tripleaaaron
    He obviously doesn't even know our roster that well, just scanned it this week and has prob. never even heard of the Lizard, saying Mays is our 4th starter, hah, well it is still kinda shaky but not as bad as he makes it,
    Both you and Bucksfan noted it before I could this morning. No credence there if you can't even know our rotation's depth chart.

  16. #15
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Rangers and Reds Among Teams To Fade

    The problem with all these prognosticators is that they look at the ingredients and can't imagine them adding up to a tasty casserole. Hey, it might not be filet mignon, but it satisfies the fans need to eat....er for a winner.

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