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Thread: Looking to buy low?

  1. #1
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Looking to buy low?

    Here are some guys to consider for a nice ERA improvement. Consider the ML BABIP is ~30% and the strand rate is ~70%.

    Pitchers with a BABIP over 33 and a Strand of under 65
    Peavy, Jake NL 33 65
    Hernandez, Orlando NL 34 65
    Loe, Kameron AL 34 65
    Shields, James AL 36 65
    Johnson, Jason AL 35 64
    Claussen, Brandon NL 33 64
    Clement, Matt AL 33 63
    Weaver, Jeff NL 34 62
    Moehler, Brian NL 35 62
    Lopez, Rodrigo AL 33 61
    Vazquez, Javier AL 33 61
    Perez, Odalis NL 38 61
    Silva, Carlos AL 34 60
    Waechter, Doug AL 33 59
    Lohse, Kyle AL 37 57
    Towers, Josh AL 36 54
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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  3. #2
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    Re: Looking to buy low?

    I'd say the careers of 70% of those guys are over.

  4. #3
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to buy low?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    I'd say the careers of 70% of those guys are over.
    may well be true, the point is it is a starting point to look for potenial value where others are not. The Reds need help and are basically going to be bottom feeding at this point. Just about anything would help when your 5th starter is Joe Mays.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Re: Looking to buy low?

    I would love to get a Jake Peavy on the cheap. Although I seriously doubt the Pads would trade them while they're in 1st place, I would offer up anybody except our big 5 (Dunn, EdE, Bailey, Arroyo and Harang). Not sure what his current contract situation is, but yes, that even includes Jay Bruce if we could get Peavy locked up to a LTC. He is one of the best young starters in baseball.

    Bruce, Aurillia (to play 3rd for them) and Zach Ward for Jake Peavy? Done and Dunn.
    Go BLUE!!!

  6. #5
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to buy low?

    I wouldn't mind a chance on Lohse or Loe.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  7. #6
    Hot Stove Season HotCorner's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to buy low?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    Here are some guys to consider for a nice ERA improvement. Consider the ML BABIP is ~30% and the strand rate is ~70%.

    Pitchers with a BABIP over 33 and a Strand of under 65
    Claussen, Brandon NL 33 64
    I'm intrigued by this Claussen kid but I need to learn more ...

  8. #7
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    Re: Looking to buy low?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    may well be true, the point is it is a starting point to look for potenial value where others are not. The Reds need help and are basically going to be bottom feeding at this point. Just about anything would help when your 5th starter is Joe Mays.
    Especially when there might be bidding wars for the likes of Mark Redman. With so many teams still within striking distance in terms of games behind, the Reds will need to find the ever-elusive diamond in the rough.

    Maybe Claussen will provide a lift when he comes back from injury. Even his '06 performance, while not effective by any stretch, should be above the level of Mays. If he can return to his '05 level, it adds another "serviceable" arm. In my view, he costs the least.

  9. #8
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to buy low?

    Quote Originally Posted by boognish
    Especially when there might be bidding wars for the likes of Mark Redman. With so many teams still within striking distance in terms of games behind, the Reds will need to find the ever-elusive diamond in the rough.
    Cubic zirconia in the rough would suffice at this point. Better than continuing to use the turd in the pocket.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  10. #9
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to buy low?

    Quote Originally Posted by HotCorner
    I'm intrigued by this Claussen kid but I need to learn more ...
    The problem with Brandon is will he be back? He hasn't pitched in almost two weeks at this point so I would say he isn't close to being back until he can make a couple of starts in a row.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Re: Looking to buy low?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85
    The problem with Brandon is will he be back? He hasn't pitched in almost two weeks at this point so I would say he isn't close to being back until he can make a couple of starts in a row.
    The next week is critical in terms of Brandon's ability...if he doesn't show signs of strengthening, the Reds need to look for the phyllite in the rough.

    If Krivsky is willing to trade another piece that could help in the future, I am hoping it is not out of desperation and is for someone who is effective.

    Interesting first name on the list, btw, flyer. If Peavy is healthy, there is no way he is moved (especially considering the Pads are in the thick of the West race), but he could bring a significant cahce in return. If San Diego believes he is damaged, this could become a much more interesting trade deadline than anticipated.

  12. #11
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    Re: Looking to buy low?

    I always liked Josh Towers, but he has been roughed up, just a lil bit.

    To be fair to him, he's in a killer division. The move from the AL East to the NL Central worked for another pitcher, why not try it again?
    Tom Shearn... who knew?

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  13. #12
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to buy low?

    As an aside, what's happened to Peavy this year???

  14. #13
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    Re: Looking to buy low?

    What happened to Towers? He's in the minors now? Dang, he's had a rough year:

    http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASA...=.jsp&c_id=tor

    TORONTO -- The empty locker just inside the door to Toronto's clubhouse provided the answer. The Blue Jays needed to make a roster move in order to activate reliever Pete Walker from the 15-day disabled list and there were questions as to who else would be involved in the transaction.
    Until Tuesday morning, the vacant stall had been occupied by starter Josh Towers.
    Towers, who continued to struggle in his second stint with Toronto, was outrighted to Triple-A Syracuse before Tuesday's game against the Nationals.
    The right-hander was originally sent down on May 24, after falling to a 1-8 record and posting a 9.00 ERA over 10 starts. He didn't show much improvement in his two outings since rejoining the staff on June 20, going 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA in those starts.
    "I let him know today," Toronto manager John Gibbons said. "I thought it was a step back the other day. The bottom line is we weren't winning the games he was starting."
    In his most recent start, Towers gave up six runs on seven hits, including two home runs, in just four-plus innings on Sunday. He has given up 16 homers this year -- dating back to April 16 -- allowing at least one shot in his last 10 starts. His most recent outing also marked the sixth time in 12 starts that Towers has failed to pitch at least five innings.
    "You've go to be able to give your team a chance to win," Blue Jays pitching coach Brad Arnsberg said. "The thing we were concerned with, mostly, was we were falling down so quickly in his games. In the first two, three innings we're down by two, three runs and you'd see a different offense."
    "It's tough to put your team in press mode every fifth day," he added. "That's what we were finding with Josh. I'm not stabbing him in the back or anything like that. I love him to death and we worked hard together. We just weren't able to get him figured out."
    Arnsberg said that he and Towers tried many different things to try and solve his early-inning issues. In his dozen outings, Towers had allowed 19 first-inning runs and 33 runs in the first three innings.
    "I've run out of ideas -- I really have -- to help him get better," Arnsberg said. "We tried several things for his early woes in innings this year. We tried starting him earlier. We tried letting him face hitters before he went into the ballgame. He'd go through an inning's worth of hitters."


    This from the guy who sported a 3.71 ERA in over 200 innings last year? Granted, it was a career year, with his career average being 4.90, but is he injured and not talking like BC, or what gives?
    Tom Shearn... who knew?

    Reds reccord when I attend in 2007: 6-1

  15. #14
    Member tripleaaaron's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to buy low?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels
    As an aside, what's happened to Peavy this year???
    maybe the wbc had something to do with it, didn't get to work w/ his guy in the preseason so he just isn't on top of his stuff
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