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Thread: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

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    Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...607250379/1071

    Sub Bailey for Mays?
    ... until Claussen returns
    COMMENTARY BY JOHN FAY | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER

    The Reds' plan, at the moment, is to start Joe Mays against the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday.

    Here's what I'd do: I'd start Homer Bailey instead, and make it a one shot deal.

    Tell Bailey he's up with the Reds until Brandon Claussen is ready to come off the disabled list.

    That lessens the pressure. And if he pitches so well that you have to alter the decision, all the better.

    The move would instill more confidence in the Reds' clubhouse than running Mays out there again.

    Bailey's numbers with Double-A Chattanooga - 4-0 record, 0.88 ERA, 17 hits, 31 strikeouts, six walks in 302/3 innings - are staggering.

    But odds are you'll see Justin Germano, Michael Gosling or Jason Standridge taking the mound in the immediate future before you see Bailey.

    Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky has never deviated from the company line on the 20-year-old phenom: The team is pleased with his progress. The Reds are glad he's had success at two levels. They don't want to bring him up and have to send him back down.

    Double-A is a long way from the big leagues. Bailey relies too heavily on his fastball. He needs to work on controlling runners.

    But Cincinnati, which opens a three-game series tonight in Houston, then goes to Milwaukee for three games, is in a pennant race.

    Every game counts. One bad stretch could kill the Reds' wild-card chances. One good stretch could put them in command.

    Mays has a 9.45 ERA in his four starts as a Red. He has given up 19 runs on 25 hits in 14 innings over his last three outings.

    He warned everyone before his last start that he probably wouldn't be sharp because he hadn't pitched in 16 days.

    How do you think that played around the bat rack?

    Still, Krivsky probably will continue his patience with Bailey.

    And even if he's softening toward the urge to bring Bailey up, Krivsky isn't tipping his hand.

    He's extremely successful at keeping his moves under wraps until he makes them. And the last thing he's going to say is that the club is considering promoting Bailey. That would put pressure on the kid before he ever leaves the state of Tennessee.

    One Reds insider has a theory on Bailey. He sees Bailey as the best chip Krivsky has. Bringing Bailey up in June would have been like a football coach using his best trick play in a meaningless game.

    You use it when it counts the most.

    Saturday may not be the time to play that big chip. But the Reds shouldn't wait too long.

    Krivsky need look no further than his old club, Minnesota. The Twins showed a lot of patience with 22-year-old Francisco Liriano. They didn't start him until May 19. He's gone 12-2 since.

    That is not to say that Bailey has Liriano's stuff, or that Bailey is even big-league ready.

    But you've got to think he's the Reds' best choice for a temporary run in the No. 5 spot in the rotation.

    YAN RELEASED: The Reds released right-hander Esteban Yan Monday. The club had designated him for assignment July 14, giving them 10 days to trade, release or outright him to the minors.

    The Reds got him May 30 from the Los Angeles Angels for minor leaguer Kyle Edens.

    Yan was 0-0 and had a 6.85 ERA in 13 games for the Angels and a 3.60 ERA and one save in 14 relief appearance for the Reds.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

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    Re: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    Mays stinks to be sure, but that's no reason to bring up Bailey. I'd go with Gosling against the Brewers, who's RH hitting lineup looks weaker than their LH hitting lineup.Or Germano. Or anyone else.

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    Re: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    Reds could bring up Germano for one start. With the trading deadline next Monday at 4 pm and with the possiblity of Claussen being ready by then, the Reds only have to worry about Mays next start before giving him the axe.
    If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.

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    Re: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    One Reds insider has a theory on Bailey. He sees Bailey as the best chip Krivsky has. Bringing Bailey up in June would have been like a football coach using his best trick play in a meaningless game.

    You use it when it counts the most.


    if a theory is stupid, can it still be called a theory?

    we need smarter insiders

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    Re: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    I think I'd go with Germano. There is absolutely no logical reason to put Joe Mays on a major league mound again.

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    Re: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    One Reds insider has a theory on Bailey. He sees Bailey as the best chip Krivsky has. Bringing Bailey up in June would have been like a football coach using his best trick play in a meaningless game.

    You use it when it counts the most.


    if a theory is stupid, can it still be called a theory?

    we need smarter insiders

    I was thinking the same thing.

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    Re: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    Mays has a 9.45 ERA in his four starts as a Red. He has given up 19 runs on 25 hits in 14 innings over his last three outings.

    He warned everyone before his last start that he probably wouldn't be sharp because he hadn't pitched in 16 days.
    They all replied, "you probably won't be sharp because you're Joe Mays."
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Re: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    Best point of the whole article:

    Every game counts. One bad stretch could kill the Reds' wild-card chances. One good stretch could put them in command.
    That's huge! Not saying we should start Homer but geez, how long are you going to run Joe Freakin' Mays out there?
    For every action there is an equal and opposite criticism.

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    Re: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    Bring up Gernamo or anyone else in AAA.

    But I don't think it's time to bring up Homer to start yet. From what I've read, his secondary pitches aren't ready. Maybe you could bring Homer up and put him in the pen, where he could give you an inning or two of just throwing fastballs, but he's going to get killed when the lineup sees him a second time.

    Resist the urge to Reith this guy. You don't want to have him up in the majors for one day and then send him back with memories of him getting his butt kicked.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD
    Resist the urge to Reith this guy.

    do you mean, teach him a cut fastball one week, then call him up the next week and ask him to throw mostly cut fastballs?

    I agree-- resist that.

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    Re: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    if a theory is stupid, can it still be called a theory?
    Sure.

    So when does Homer have to be protected on the 40 man roster?
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    Re: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig
    Mays stinks to be sure, but that's no reason to bring up Bailey. I'd go with Gosling against the Brewers, who's RH hitting lineup looks weaker than their LH hitting lineup.Or Germano. Or anyone else.
    Brewers have killed lefties this year, IIRC. Germano might be a better option.
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    Re: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton
    One Reds insider has a theory on Bailey. He sees Bailey as the best chip Krivsky has. Bringing Bailey up in June would have been like a football coach using his best trick play in a meaningless game.

    You use it when it counts the most.


    if a theory is stupid, can it still be called a theory?

    we need smarter insiders
    Good question. However, I read that different in that I think Fay misinterpreted the insider's metaphor. I don't think Krivsky has any intention or secret plan to hold Bailey as a trick play. Rather, I do believe that Krivsky understands the risk to Bailey's value should they rush him in a stupid start against the Brewers.

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    Re: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    Quote Originally Posted by BrooklynRedz
    Good question. However, I read that different in that I think Fay misinterpreted the insider's metaphor. I don't think Krivsky has any intention or secret plan to hold Bailey as a trick play. Rather, I do believe that Krivsky understands the risk to Bailey's value should they rush him in a stupid start against the Brewers.
    your interpretation is that Bailey's trade value decreases over present value if he gets shelled in a major league debut?

    OTOH, if you call him up, spot him into roles in which he should succeed-- and not every batter can muscle a 98 mph fastball, there are Juan Castros in this league-- then his value increases. Probably to the point that nobody can afford him, but that's not a bad problem.

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    Re: Sub Bailey For Mays? --John Fay, Cincy Enquirer 7/25

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper
    Brewers have killed lefties this year, IIRC. Germano might be a better option.
    any choice not named Mays is a better option.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand


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