102 down and 60 games left...
Reds stand at 54-48 and 2.5 up in the WC
I believe 88 wins would seal at least a Reds Wild Card in the parity of medicority known as the National League.
The NL West seems to be falling back into a .500 collection with the Rockies/Dodgers fading, but capable of holding their own against their own division. The Reds crucial stretch of games include a ten game West Coast trip and that might make/break the season for the Reds/Giants in particular.
88 wins? The Giants/Dbacks need 37-23 and 37-24 respectively. Possible, but that's a high win % against mainly the NL West. Giants/Reds upcoming series becomes pretty huge looking forward.
The Marlins and Braves look to be sexy WC threats on the edges. However both have struggled within their own division and mathematically being 5-6 under .500 means you need to close with a barrage to get to 88 wins.
Braves would need 40-21, Marlins would need 41-21. Possible but the NL East parity and division rivalries make that seem a reach. As the season rolls along, mathematically even being 5-6 back in the Wild Card starts to become a harder climb by the week. Lets root for the Mets to put the final hammer on the ATL this weekend.
Houston/Brewers. Reds have done there part this week to put both of them to bed. Both would need 40-20 to hit 88 wins. Not going to happen.
Thus we come back to the Reds. 88 is the magic number.
So we need a 34-26 finish. Won't be easy, but feels doable. If 86 or 87 wins somehow gets it done to win the division or the NL Central then we need 32-28 or 33-27. Blowing one like Wed night in Houston really hurt, but salvaging the series was huge. What scares me is a nasty West Coast swing in late August, but I think our pitching staff will be fine out West. We actually have some starting and BP arms to compete almost every night for once this millenium. Opportunity is the 7 game stretch against the Cards from Aug 7-17. Win 5 of 7 and the Reds are a serious division threat.
Mathematically at least, the Reds stand in decent shape to control their own postseason destiny with a modest 34-26 (.567 win percentage) run from here on out.
TIme to find a way to win 2/3 in Milwaukee and keep this thing rolling into August...