Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 18

Thread: Soriano stays with the Nationals

  1. #1
    Member Phhhl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    3,895

    Re: Soriano stays with the Nationals

    Bowden should be fired if they don't re-sign him.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member Reds Fanatic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Piqua, OH
    Posts
    16,543

    Soriano stays with the Nationals

    Soriano will remain with the Nationals according to Sporsline. Apparently Bowden was asking too much so a deal did not get done.
    Last edited by Reds Fanatic; 07-31-2006 at 04:31 PM.

  4. #3
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    West N. Carolina
    Posts
    55,653

    Re: Soriano stays with the Nationals

    Not surprised at all, Soriano is the definition of a Bowden player.
    Go Gators!

  5. #4
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    42,684

    Re: Soriano stays with the Nationals

    Let's see if this topic can avoid the bolded part.

    IMO Bowden made a mistake quite similar to a prior one in his career, he handcuffed his current franchise with a player, a player with 1/2 the cache of the previous mistake he made.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...12a0565d50bed7

    #1: The Nationals hold on to Alfonso Soriano.

    In an environment of constant change—the MLB rumor mills—the one thing I held to throughout July is that Soriano would be dealt. He was one of the top three hitters available, playing out his contract for a team that isn’t contending or currently in danger of doing so in the next two years. That Jim Bowden wouldn’t get this deal done, despite having the last top-tier hitter available and at least four teams actively pursuing him, is a terrific argument for replacing him in the Nats front office.

    One of the hardest things to analyze from the informed-outsider position is deals that don’t happen. You hear and read all kinds of rumors, but only Bowden knows what offers were actually put on the table. It’s well-established that Bowden, perhaps emboldened by his steal from the Reds, was asking for a lot for Soriano, and that factor appears to have driven the end result. But what also played into it was the Nationals’ apparent desire to negotiate a long-term deal with Soriano to keep him in D.C. after this season.

    Let’s look at that option. At 30, Soriano is having what may be the best year of his career, with his highest EqA and on pace to post his highest WARP. He’s shown definite improvement in his plate discipline and has hit for more power than ever before. His defense, in his first year in left field, has been passable. He’ll be one of the top free agents this offseason; as a WAG, let’s say he gets slightly less than Johnny Damon money: four years, $48 million, for his ages 31-34 seasons, the early decline phase. I think that’s conservative.

    Soriano was a great player at his peak in New York and something less than that with the Rangers. In deciding they want to keep him, the Nats are making the fundamental mistake of evaluating a player entirely on his most-recent work and deciding that that’s his level. Year in and year out, hundreds of millions of dollars—no, I’m not exaggerating—are committed to players who have their best year at the best time and have little hope of repeating it. The most likely scenario is that Soriano doesn’t match his age-30 performance again, while being paid for it through 2010. If he signs with the Nationals, his ages 31 and 32 seasons will almost certainly be spent on teams that are fringe contenders, rather than true ones. Signing him makes less sense for them, from a projected return standpoint, than it does a number of other teams who might leverage his performance, his marginal revenue product, into playoff spots.

    Now look at the other path. As I said, it’s hard to know what was actually rejected, but let’s consider a fairly low-end, quite reasonable offer that made the rounds. The Twins reportedly offered Scott Baker and Jason Kubel for Soriano. Kubel won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2007 at least, Baker not until 2008 at least. Both are solid B prospects, and Kubel has a higher upside than that. Bowden wanted prospect Matt Garza instead, and no deal was reached.

    Let me simplify this choice: Bowden decided that he’d rather have Alfonso Soriano from ages 31-34 than Jason Kubel from 25-28, Scott Baker from 25-28…and $35 million! Unless Soriano is suddenly going to morph into Albert Pujols--hell, even if he is—you have to pull the trigger on this trade. The gap in production for the cost is far too great. You can make this deal and then use the money on Jason Schmidt and think seriously about the 2007 wild card.

    Even that’s not really the choice. There’s nothing stopping Bowden from trading two months of performance that do nothing but hurt his team’s draft position next year and maybe drive some small amount of money into the team’s coffers, then chasing Soriano this winter! You’re betting the small chance that he’ll sign with his new team before hitting the market, but you’re getting back two pre-arb players, one who bats third and the other who could be your #2 starter right now.

    Run the numbers with the other offer that was widely reported, the Angels’ Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar, and the results are the same. Bowden had multiple ways to make the Nationals a much better team from 2007-2010 and he didn’t get the job done. He overplayed his hand and set the Nationals back this weekend. Coming off of years of mishandling, they couldn’t afford that kind of loss. Unless Soriano somehow clears waivers, this is the biggest story, and biggest mistake, of deadline 2006.

  6. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Posts
    1,045

    Re: Soriano stays with the Nationals

    I never bought into the theory that Bowden's personality interfered with his ability to make trades - no GM should let personality get in the way of a deal.

    I wonder if it hurt him here, though - not in that he asked for too much, but in that no one trusted him enough to leave an offer on the table for long.

  7. #6
    Member Cedric's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Monroe
    Posts
    6,396

    Re: Soriano stays with the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by backbencher
    I never bought into the theory that Bowden's personality interfered with his ability to make trades - no GM should let personality get in the way of a deal.

    I wonder if it hurt him here, though - not in that he asked for too much, but in that no one trusted him enough to leave an offer on the table for long.
    I completely disagree on how personality wouldn't interfer with a trade. I think the Tommy Lasorda situation in LA would glean a little light onto what kind of egomaniac Bowden was.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  8. #7
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    13,790

    Re: Soriano stays with the Nationals

    I think Bowden screwed up pretty badly, but I also think there's a chance he'll make a waiver deal with someone. Soriano is expensive and a pending FA, so there's a chance he could slip through to a team that really wants/needs him.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  9. #8
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Bristol, just around the corner from ESPN
    Posts
    8,694

    Re: Soriano stays with the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    I think Bowden screwed up pretty badly, but I also think there's a chance he'll make a waiver deal with someone. Soriano is expensive and a pending FA, so there's a chance he could slip through to a team that really wants/needs him.
    I can't imagine Soriano clearing waivers for a deal to take place. I would bet someone, anyone would claim him to block the move.

    Bowden screwed the pooch on this deal, or lack thereof. He went from King of DC when he "fleeced" the Reds, as some media outlets reported, to not trading away his biggest bargaining chip. If this year was Bowden audition for the new Nationals ownership, then consider him a flop, and I'd be very surprised if he were retained thru the offseason.

  10. #9
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    26,508

    Re: Soriano stays with the Nationals

    Bowden must think he can resign him.


    I think he's an idiot, and is still the Jim Bowden we all grew to despise....

  11. #10
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Colorado's eastern plains
    Posts
    11,232

    Re: Soriano stays with the Nationals

    Someone will offer Soriano equivalent money and the opportunity to play 2B again and he'll leave D.C. Bowden dropped the ball on this one.

  12. #11
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    21,013

    Re: Soriano stays with the Nationals

    It all depends.

    It depends on what Bowden was offered. If he was offered middling talent, then sometimes it makes sense to say "no", even if that means taking nothing. Why? Because the next time people are negotiating with Bowden at the trade deadline, they know he won't simply cave at the best offer to avoid getting nothing.

    If nothing else, the Nationals will either resign him or get draft picks. That might be better than getting a Yarnell, Reith, and Drew Henson for him.

    On the surface, it looks like a no brainer just to take what you can get for Soraino, but look at what Carlos Lee fetched.. not a whole lot. If the Nats couldn't get one "sure thing youngster" plus 2 other good prospects, I can see why Bowden decided not to deal. It looks like it quickly became a buyer's market.

    And I doubt most fans are mad at Bowden for not dealing Soriano. Sure, the diehard message board types will be, but most fans aren't rooting for the team to trade their best player for the purpose of rebuiding. To say that not trading Soriano should cost Bowden his job is just plain silly. After all, Bowden was the one who took the risk to get Soriano in the first place, despite everyone saying he was stupid.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  13. #12
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    26,508

    Re: Soriano stays with the Nationals

    Somebody should have told Bowden their offer was a "6 tooler" and he would have had to change his leather pants
    Last edited by Matt700wlw; 08-01-2006 at 04:36 PM.

  14. #13
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    West N. Carolina
    Posts
    55,653

    Re: Soriano stays with the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM
    Someone will offer Soriano equivalent money and the opportunity to play 2B again and he'll leave D.C. Bowden dropped the ball on this one.
    Guess he wants the draft pick for a high school arm
    Go Gators!

  15. #14
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    13,790

    Re: Soriano stays with the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21
    I can't imagine Soriano clearing waivers for a deal to take place. I would bet someone, anyone would claim him to block the move.

    Bowden screwed the pooch on this deal, or lack thereof. He went from King of DC when he "fleeced" the Reds, as some media outlets reported, to not trading away his biggest bargaining chip. If this year was Bowden audition for the new Nationals ownership, then consider him a flop, and I'd be very surprised if he were retained thru the offseason.
    He doesn't have to clear waivers, he just has to make it past all the low-level teams and get picked by a wildcard contender. There's no way the Cardinals, Yankees, or Red Sox could get him, but he might make it to a midrange contender. There's a chance he could do that, slim though it may be.
    Last edited by Johnny Footstool; 08-01-2006 at 04:42 PM.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  16. #15
    Member Spitball's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    5,622

    Re: Soriano stays with the Nationals

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool
    He doesn't have to clear waivers, he just has to make it past all the low-level teams and get picked by a wildcard contender. There's no way the Cardinals, Yankees, or Red Sox could get him, but he might make it to a midrange contender. There's a chance he could do that, slim though it may be.
    True, but with a waiver deal, Bowden is no longer an auctioneer selling to the highest bidder.

    This winter, he must hope Soriano takes a home team discount or else he pays a very high price to keep Soriano. If Soriano doesn't sign with the Nats, Bowden looks like a fool, IMO.
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25