Kyle Lohse
DOB: 10/4/78 (Age is 27)
Height: 6' 2", Weight: 202
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Experience: 5 years
2006 Salary: $3,950,000

2006 stats (w/ Min):
Innings pitched: 63.7
Games: 22
Games started: 8
ERA: 7.07
Whip: 1.648
K’s: 46
Bbs: 25
Batting Avg. Against: .308
Batting Avg. Balls In Play: .350


2006 stats (w/ Rochester AAA from May 17-June 6):
Innings pitched: 24
Games: 4
Games started: 4
ERA: 1.50
Whip: 0.875
K’s: 12
Bbs: 6


Ground ball% 2005 (a good year for him): 44%

2006 Baseball Prospectus“Not a stathead’s sort of pitcher, but not everybody can crank out a quality start half of the time, and if that’s your fourth or fifth starter, you’ve got something. He throws hard and can get both his slider and curve over for strikes, so it would be interesting to see if he’d ever benefit from working with someone like Dave Duncan and turn some of that stuff into results. The Twins were right to offer him arbitration this winter: if Baker and Liriano both look ready, Ryan can always shop Lohse or even Brad Radke; despite greater acclaim, Radke hasn’t actually out pitched Lohse in two of the last three years.”

VORP: (Value over replacement player)
2003: 29.7
2004: 7.9
2005: 30.9
2006 (projected): 14.1
2006 (actual to date): -6.3

2006 Sporting News Baseball Register Scouting Reports
“Throws: He has a fastball that ranges from 90-93 mph, an 84-86 slider, and a straight changeup. Tendencies: Lohse has a good delivery and good stuff, but problems with command of his fastball have resulted in inconsistency. Fastball has good life up and down in the zone. Slider is a very quick late biter. Has improved his straight change. Has a tendency to rely on his breaking ball with runners on and frequently will overthrow his fastball in those situations. Makes a lot of mistakes when ahead in the count. Outlook: He should be a better pitcher than he is because his stuff is at times above average. Should win 12-15 games per year. 6.8 out of 10.”

2006 Bill James Handbook pitcher projection:
IP: 186
GS:31
HR: 26
ERA : 4.78


Final notes:

Clearly he has had a bad year so far in Minnesota. (Good in AAA though...and Claussen is stinking up even AAA!)

Maybe a new team, and a new pitching coach can help get back on track. If we had seen this deal back in March, we would have been fairly excited. Now, I am worried, but cautiously optimisitic that he will be more than another 'Joe Mays'.