From Baseball Prospectus:Code:Average wins by position in NL Central: 89.4 84.4 79.0 74.8 70.1 64.3 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 58 46 .480 87.8 74.2 62.80629 18.18193 80.98822 Reds 55 50 .502 85.4 76.6 34.24460 27.28291 61.52751 Brewers 50 56 .456 77.2 84.8 1.71562 2.84155 4.55717 Astros 49 56 .454 76.2 85.8 1.20014 2.04517 3.24531 Cubs 43 62 .442 70.0 92.0 .03242 .05518 .08760 Pirates 40 66 .427 65.2 96.8 .00093 .00045 .00138
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte
Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,
losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3
from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the
rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning
percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal
distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used
for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4%
home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the
visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is
determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the
championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5
championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25
for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!