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Thread: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

  1. #1
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    Code:
    Average wins by position in NL Central:  89.4 84.4 79.0 74.8 70.1 64.3
    NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
    Cardinals         58   46   .480   87.8   74.2   62.80629   18.18193   80.98822
    Reds              55   50   .502   85.4   76.6   34.24460   27.28291   61.52751
    Brewers           50   56   .456   77.2   84.8    1.71562    2.84155    4.55717
    Astros            49   56   .454   76.2   85.8    1.20014    2.04517    3.24531
    Cubs              43   62   .442   70.0   92.0     .03242     .05518     .08760
    Pirates           40   66   .427   65.2   96.8     .00093     .00045     .00138
    From Baseball Prospectus:
    As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte
    Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,
    losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted
    Standings Report.

    Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3
    from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the
    rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning
    percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal
    distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used
    for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4%
    home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the
    visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is
    determined by the log5 method.

    W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

    Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the
    regression-to-mean component.

    Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

    Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the
    championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5
    championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25
    for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

    Championships for MY teams in my lifetime:
    Cincinnati Reds - 75, 76, 90
    Chicago Blackhawks - 10, 13
    University of Kentucky - 78, 96, 98, 12
    Cincinnati Bengals - None
    Chicago Bulls - 91, 92, 93, 96, 97, 98

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    Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    Cubs and Pirates fans: So you're tellin me there's a chance??

  4. #3
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    Quote Originally Posted by fielder's choice
    Cubs and Pirates fans: So you're tellin me there's a chance??
    Harry and Lloyd are probably laying money on 'em right now.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  5. #4
    Member tripleaaaron's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    do you have the adjusted percentages for the other wild card possibles? we are 60% likely to win the wild-card, correct? are these adjusted based on trade deadline?
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  6. #5
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    Quote Originally Posted by tripleaaaron
    do you have the adjusted percentages for the other wild card possibles? we are 60% likely to win the wild-card, correct? are these adjusted based on trade deadline?
    34 to win the division and 27 to win the wildcard.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph
    [code]the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte
    Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times.
    I used to have a 1974 Monte Carlo with a 350. Does that count?

  8. #7
    Bunn-O-matic max venable's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    Quote Originally Posted by fielder's choice
    Cubs and Pirates fans: So you're tellin me there's a chance??
    For every action there is an equal and opposite criticism.

  9. #8
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    In case anyone is interested, there are 3 cool sites to bookmark as the Reds stay in the playoff hunt.

    First of all, here is a link to the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds report. It is updated every morning.

    There is another playoff odds site, that uses a different calculation method. It is called Cool Standings, and is is located HERE.

    Then there is the Magic Number....Our Magic Number to win the division (against St. Louis) is now 41. For the Wild Card against the Padres and Phillies it is 36. The Magic Number is the number of combined Reds wins and opponent losses needed to make the playoffs. Here is a good Magic Number site that calculates Magic Numbers...

    These sites are fun to watch when the Reds win, as you can the odds go up, and the Magic Number drop.

    Mike
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  10. #9
    "So Fla Red"
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    Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    Nice links

    Cubs still had a 1/2200 chance as of this morning. See the billy goat jinx is just a myth

  11. #10
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    I think this is where my frustration with raw statistics comes from. This request is not meant to be rude. It's really more "hat in hand". Can someone translate this or help me get a focus on what I'm looking at in the chart.

    I've often thought there ought to be a sticky or archived post that explains the conglomeration of Alphabet soup of OPB OP/IC EIEIO's that folks post. My eyes sort of glaze over because I have no frame of reference for the initials and their pertinant meaning.

    Thanks.

  12. #11
    Baseball card addict MrCinatit's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz
    I think this is where my frustration with raw statistics comes from. This request is not meant to be rude. It's really more "hat in hand". Can someone translate this or help me get a focus on what I'm looking at in the chart.

    I've often thought there ought to be a sticky or archived post that explains the conglomeration of Alphabet soup of OPB OP/IC EIEIO's that folks post. My eyes sort of glaze over because I have no frame of reference for the initials and their pertinant meaning.

    Thanks.
    *Gives sheepish look from the back of the class*
    Whew. Thought I was the only one.

  13. #12
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    You folks might wanna check out the archives.

    I think someone made huge threads that sum up some of things discussed around here over the years, and statistics was definitely one of them.

    I'd post links for ya, but I'm on my way out the door.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  14. #13
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...ght=statistics

    This looks like the archived info, although I'm not sure it explains it fully.

  15. #14
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    Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    Can someone translate this or help me get a focus on what I'm looking at in the chart.
    They played out the rest of the season via simulation a million times. The easy and important numbers are the last three columns.

    1st column is name of the club.
    2nd is how many wins they have to date.
    3rd is how many losses to date.
    I'm not confident what the 4th collumn is. If you really want to know, I could ask Clay. He doesn't really give enough information. My guess is that it's the simulations estimate about that teams expected winning percentage for the rest of the year.
    The fifth column is the number of wins the simulation expects the reds to have at the end of the year.
    The sixth column is the number of losses the simulation expects the reds to have at the end of the year.
    The seventh column is the percentage chance the team has of winning the division according to the simulation.
    The eighth column is the percentage chance the team has of winning the wildcard according to the simulation.
    The last column is the percentage chance the team has of going to the post season.

    FWIW despite the winning streak, via this method as of today the reds are about a 50-50 proposition to make the post season.

    The next couple of series and the west coast trip should clear things up far more than any simulation can.
    Last edited by dfs; 08-22-2006 at 10:07 AM.

  16. #15
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Playoff Odds Updated

    Thanks, DFS.


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