1. ## Re: Jerry Narron.

Originally Posted by RedlegJake
I really hope that was sarcasm.
I don't think it was RedlegJake. A guy earlier blamed Narron for 10-12 losses. Make those wins and the Reds go from a few games over, to about 25 over. People actually believe this stuff.

The problem with this thinking is that people fail to remember the wins Narron got for a decision he made. The reason this is forgotten is because too often people are complaining about his moves, even when they work.

The thinking seems to be that when a team wins a game even though the manager has thrown out a flawed line-up, that game would of been a win, guaranteed, had Narron just used the correct line-up to begin with. These are wins in spite of the manager.

You know, Narron goes with Rich at third. Rich goes 2-4 with a HR and the Reds win. Does Narron get credit for playing Rich? Nope, people are too busy blaming him for not playing Edwin.

But if they lose, the loss is blamed ON Narron. And apparently there are 10-12 of these. We've won 0 because of our managers moves. But we've lost 10-12.

Narron only gets credited when his decisions don't work out.

NEVER is there credit given when they do. Words like, luck get thrown around instead.

25 games over .500? No way.

2. ## Re: Jerry Narron.

RE 99-02 0 Out 1 Out 2 Out
Empty 0.555 0.297 0.117
1st 0.953 0.573 0.251
2nd 1.189 0.725 0.344
3rd 1.482 0.983 0.387
1st_2nd 1.573 0.971 0.466
1st_3rd 1.904 1.243 0.538
2nd_3rd 2.052 1.467 0.634

Above is the run scoring scoring probabilities given the 24 possible out/baserunner situations using data from the 1999-2002 seasons. (from http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html )

Lets ignore the obvious difference between bases loaded and zero outs and 1st and 2nd with no out. Given the pitcher was up the rationale was clearly that bases loaded one out is better then 1st and 2nd zero outs. What the data shows is that bases loaded one out is still an inferior situation (with an average of 1.65 runs scoring) on average then first and second zero outs (avg. 1.57 runs). When you factor in the very real chance that the pitcher might have driven in the run from third, the decision looks even worse from a pure probablility standpoint.

I understand the this doesn't take into account that Ryan Howard is better then your average player, but even so I don't see how this move can be defended as statistically wise.

Further, one of the best possible outcomes would have been an out without moving the runner to third with less then two outs. Who is the most likely batter to strike out in the Philly's lineup? Ryan Howard.

3. ## Re: Jerry Narron.

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan
Jerry's winning percentage over his career is .475. Since June 3rd, his winning percentage as Reds manager is .459. He's never managed a winning team. He's our manager for next year. Do the math.

Not that it makes any difference, BTW. The Jerry love flows.

Sorry, but a winning record as the Reds manager is a work in progress. Let's look at it at the end of the season. I eat crow better than most and will be glad to do it.
Let's look at some other MLB managers using this line of thinking...

* Connie Mack (Hall of Fame, 1937)
> Career record: 3731-3948 (.486)
>> Hall of Fame? How did that happen?

* Joe Torre
> First 5 years as a manager: 286-420 (.380)
>> How many years has Narron been managing?
>> Does managing high-paying teams vs. low-paying teams (nice setup there, MLB) matter? DOES IT?
>> Think Joe Torre might get consideration for the Hall?

* Pete Rose
> 6 years: 412-373 (.525)
>> Only 1 losing season.
>> Playoffs? ZERO for those who didn't know.

4. ## Re: Jerry Narron.

Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966
Let's look at some other MLB managers using this line of thinking...

* Connie Mack (Hall of Fame, 1937)
> Career record: 3731-3948 (.486)
>> Hall of Fame? How did that happen?

* Joe Torre
> First 5 years as a manager: 286-420 (.380)
>> How many years has Narron been managing?
>> Does managing high-paying teams vs. low-paying teams (nice setup there, MLB) matter? DOES IT?
>> Think Joe Torre might get consideration for the Hall?

* Pete Rose
> 6 years: 412-373 (.525)
>> Only 1 losing season.
>> Playoffs? ZERO for those who didn't know.

Please, please. Don't let facts and logic get in the way of a good old fashion hate Jerry session.

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