In case you are interested...

[dougdirt]

Good to know his curve was working. He really needs that changeup to be good in the bigs but he could get by with 98 and a good curve.


I metnioned in one of my posts above that he is slowing his arm down to throw the change. It's a shame he isn't throwing it as much. You can't work on it if you don't throw it.

Thats what I get for skipping over a few posts...there were quite a few. Sorry for skipping over it and having you cover it again. Thanks for answering the question still though.

[jredmo2]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but here's a quick video of Homer in the bullpen:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UPqCm3wh5I

His curve looks pretty nasty here. Not sure if that translates to anything, I'm no expert.

[cumberlandreds]

In case anyone is interested in knowing how Homer Bailey would do in the bigs right now..... Tune into Fox and watch Scott Mathieson.

Same type of fastabll, delivery and pitch selection. Scott like Homer has difficulty "consistently" throwing anything but his fastballs for strikes. Big leaguers can hit a 95+ MPH Fastball if they know it's coming.

We had someone at Homer's last start. He threw 18 Curves and only 4 for strikes. His "misses" were not "tight" misses but wide. That's mechanical. He attempted 1 changeup that landed "at least 2 feet" in front of home plate.

He's just not ready. He will be and when he is he will be good. Really good. He's just not ready.

I wondering that very thing while watching Mathieson saturday night if he was similar to Bailey. Grande or Welsh said he was just in A ball last season. Thanks for your insights.

[princeton]

I would send Mark Berry back to AA to manage. Mark was previously a Manager of the Year (twice) in the Reds system.

and Mark Berry's going, what did I ever do to THAT guy?

[Team Clark]

Team Clark,

It's my observation that perhaps Homer is a victim of his own success. Think about it, why would a kid continue to work on a changeup when he's striking out guys at the Double-A level to the tune of over once per inning, and giving up just one earned run every nine innings?

It's a very short-sighted way of looking at things, but when you're a kid like Homer, you're probably too naive to understand that big league hitters will rip him apart if he doesn't develop that changeup.

One clarification - do you think it will take until next September until you feel he's ready or do you think the Reds will wait that long? I will defer to your insight as to whether he's ready next September, but I can't see the Reds waiting that long to get him up there - although I admit Wayne Krivsky does seem dedicated to not rushing the kid.

Another question - what do you think of Joey Votto and how far away is he? Obviously Scott Hatteberg has him blocked in the immediate future, but could he make the team next spring or is he another half-season or year away?

That is an excellent theory on Homer's success. I'm not sure I have a good answer for that unless I were to speak with Homer. It's possible he's wondering "why am I fooling with this changeup".... Much like Nuke LaLoosh was wondering many things in his Minor League days. Homer needs a Crash Davis.

I think the Reds will wait until September 07. That being said, if he shows consistent improvement in developing his curve, change and maybe a slider he could be in the rotation by June. I would only need to see a young pitcher, of his caliber, throw Major League quality breaking balls and change ups for 60-75 innings at this stage. Possibly 100 innings if he had a few bumps along the way. From what I see and hear he is only showing those quality pitches in flashes. That will not cut it. To Homer's credit, he's only as far along as should be expected. He's certainly not behind in his development.

[Team Clark]

Thats what I get for skipping over a few posts...there were quite a few. Sorry for skipping over it and having you cover it again. Thanks for answering the question still though.

No problem. Happens to me all the time when I try to keep up with the Game Threads.

[flyer85]

to be successful in the bullpen you only need two pitches, in addtion, there certainly have been a number of major league starters who had great success with only two pitches.

[Team Clark]

and Mark Berry's going, what did I ever do to THAT guy?

LOL! Yeah I bet. He's a tremendous administrator and organizer. He scripts Spring Training for the Big Leagues. That's one heck of a task believe me. He just needs to get back on the Managerial track IMO.

[Team Clark]

to be successful in the bullpen you only need two pitches, in addtion, there certainly have been a number of major league starters who had great success with only two pitches.

I just do not know what you accomplish by taking your #1 Starting Pitching prospect and quickly turn him into an inexperienced reliever. Homer really only has one pitch right now anyway. His curve is only good periodically.

[flyer85]

I just do not know what you accomplish by taking your #1 Starting Pitching prospect and quickly turn him into an inexperienced reliever.

Papelbon says hello

[RedsManRick]

Given the hypothesis that Homer is becoming a victim of his own success, wouldn't it make sense then to move him up to AAA. I know that there's arguably more "talent" in AA, but let him face some guys who know how to deal with pitchers like him. Push him more and knock his ego down a peg if that's really the issue.

I just don't get why hitters aren't just sitting dead red on his fastball. There seems to be a similarity with Ryan Wagner in so far as once hitters figure out what not to mess with, they can sit on what they can handle and kill it. If he can simply live on his fastball in AA, perhaps he needs to be "forced" in to developing the rest of his repitoire.

Re: the Minor League SP -> Major League RP -> Major League SP route, it seems to be working in Minnesota. Not saying it's why they're successful, only that it doesn't seem to have been a hindrance.

[Team Clark]

Papelbon says hello

That is an excellent point. The Red Sox could afford to do that with Papelbon where I do not think the Reds can. Just My Opinion.

[Team Clark]

Given the hypothesis that Homer is becoming a victim of his own success, wouldn't it make sense then to move him up to AAA. I know that there's arguably more "talent" in AA, but let him face some guys who know how to deal with pitchers like him. Push him more and knock his ego down a peg if that's really the issue.

I just don't get why hitters aren't just sitting dead red on his fastball. There seems to be a similarity with Ryan Wagner in so far as once hitters figure out what not to mess with, they can sit on what they can handle and kill it. If he can simply live on his fastball in AA, perhaps he needs to be "forced" in to developing the rest of his repitoire.

Re: the Minor League SP -> Major League RP -> Major League SP route, it seems to be working in Minnesota. Not saying it's why they're successful, only that it doesn't seem to have been a hindrance.

It's a great idea. Problem is if they did that today he may only get two starts.

[RedsManRick]

So TC, do you start him in AAA next year then? What about Arizona? If he has a great spring in '07, is he in "danger" of making the major league rotation?

[flyer85]

That is an excellent point. The Red Sox could afford to do that with Papelbon where I do not think the Reds can. Just My Opinion.

Supposedly it is only temporary, as it would be for the Reds. Without a doubt this team needs RH bullpen help.

I would sure to hate to think if this team misses the playoffs by a game and Bailey could have actually helped this team out of the bullpen.