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Thread: Stat Question?

  1. #1
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    Stat Question?

    How can I find stats for Reds pitchers with a certain catcher? Basicly which catcher calls the best game. Everyone seem to think that Larue calls a great game, but how do they know. Is it from observation or is there a stat to determine this?

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    Re: Stat Question?

    I would have to think some use the Catchers ERA... I've heard it used.... Just not sure where to find it.
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    Re: Stat Question?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsMan3203
    I would have to think some use the Catchers ERA... I've heard it used.... Just not sure where to find it.

    you can find Catcher's ERA (CERA) on www.espn.com. just go to catcher's fielding statistics. it, however, is an aggregate total. it is not broken down by pitcher.

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    Re: Stat Question?

    The stat you are looking for is catcher's ERA or CERA.
    This year's numbers are freely available at ESPN when you look at fielding stats for catchers. I believe you can extract historical information from ESPN's from the same source.

    Jason puts up a 4.61
    David Ross has a 4.75
    Javier Valentine has a 4.91

    A couple of comments. The number for Ross and LaRue is essentially the same. I wouldn't read anything into Javy's blip there. Essentially he's been catching the Lizard while the other guys get Arroyo and Harang. As a blanket stat Catcher ERA is filled with correlation and sampling problems. It's not the most trustworthy number in the world.

    That said, only once in the last five years has Jason LaRue posted a CERA that was better than his backups. That was 04 when Valentin got stuck catching Cory Lidle. Given that most of Jason's backup's have been "offensive" catchers, and Jason came up with a bit of defensive wizard rep, I would have expected him to clearly outperform his backups at least a couple of times. With the exception of 04, that's never really happened.

    Just from observation, I think LaRue is having one of his better defensive years. He still has problems with plays at the plate and I don't think he'll ever frame pitches properly, but he has at least conceded to setting a target for his pitchers which he simply has not done in years past. He's leading the team in past balls again, and if you watch him stab for the ball I think you'll agree that's just technique. It's been 5 years now and he hasn't ever fixed it, so I think that's what it is.

    FWIW Arroyo pitched a couple innings to LaRue in the spring. He complained that he couldn't get on the same page with him and hasn't pitched to him since unless Ross was hurt.

    It may seem that I'm down on Jason LaRue, because I don't think much of his defensive abilities. But in a Sean Casey way I'm really impressed with LaRue the person. He was hurt out of spring training and essentially lost his job. Although he responded honestly when the press talked with him about it, he didn't make a big stink or fuss about, he just played as well as he could when he had the chance to get in the game. Yeah, he's overpaid and I have no idea what happened to his stick, but he seems to have mildly elevated his defensive play this year. Like Junior, he's untradable till he starts hitting again.

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    Re: Stat Question?

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs
    Just from observation, I think LaRue is having one of his better defensive years. He still has problems with plays at the plate and I don't think he'll ever frame pitches properly, but he has at least conceded to setting a target for his pitchers which he simply has not done in years past. He's leading the team in past balls again, and if you watch him stab for the ball I think you'll agree that's just technique. It's been 5 years now and he hasn't ever fixed it, so I think that's what it is.
    That is a near perfect analysis. I will throw in there, that he thinks his pitchers have better fastballs than they really do and calls for them too often in situations where they shouldn't be called.

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    Re: Stat Question?

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs
    He's leading the team in past balls again, and if you watch him stab for the ball I think you'll agree that's just technique. It's been 5 years now and he hasn't ever fixed it, so I think that's what it is.
    FYI:

    In 2005, MLB average Innings Caught per Past Ball was 153.9. Larue averaged 152.5 Innings per PB. In 2006, MLB average is one PB every 129.6 IP. Larue's at 144.4 Innings per PB. It's not something he's currently bad at.
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    Re: Stat Question?

    It's not something he's currently bad at.
    Thanks for pointing that out, SteelSD. I clearly missed it and it's a pretty clear indicator that something has changed. We go back to previous years and Jason end up with numbers like 45 or 56 or 62. Really horrible numbers. Something is different and I missed it. I don't see it in technique.

    I long postulated that Gullet was encouraging pitchers to throw in the dirt and that was the cause of the inflated number of wild pitches/past balls we saw. I wonder.

    ...turned on their heads, those numbers also still indicate that it's not something he's particularly GOOD at either. While I'm fully willing to conceed that Jason may not be as bad as I may observationally put him, the notion that Jason is some sort of star defensive catcher who helps the team defensively is shaky at best. He's got to hit in order to begin to earn some of that money.

    Valentine is right at league average at 124. Ross is off the charts having caught 380 innings without a single passed ball. Ratios do funny things.
    Last edited by dfs; 08-16-2006 at 11:39 AM.

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    Re: Stat Question?

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs
    Thanks for pointing that out, SteelSD. I clearly missed it and it's a pretty clear indicator that something has changed. We go back to previous years and Jason end up with numbers like 45 or 56 or 62. Really horrible numbers. Something is different and I missed it. I don't see it in technique.

    I long postulated that Gullet was encouraging pitchers to throw in the dirt and that was the cause of the inflated number of wild pitches/past balls we saw. I wonder.

    ...turned on their heads, those numbers also still indicate that it's not something he's particularly GOOD at either. While I'm fully willing to conceed that Jason may not be as bad as I may observationally put him, the notion that Jason is some sort of star defensive catcher who helps the team defensively is shaky at best.

    Valentine is right at league average at 124. Ross is off the charts having caught 380 innings without a single passed ball. Ratios do funny things.
    I've always been of the opinion that catching bad pitchers tends to enhance Passed Ball totals as bad pitchers might be more likely to cross up their catchers and/or lack command.

    That being said, he's got other defensive advantages even if his PB rates are average. He's like a cat out of the box. His arm is so good that only SB specialists try to run on him. Is he a tier one defensive specialist like Yadier Molina or what Brad Ausmus and Mike Matheny used to be? No. But he's a high tier two guy who, IMHO, has long been underappreciated for what he does well due to the perception (partly fueled by PB totals in years prior) that he's a bad receiver.

    Now if he'll just start hitting again...
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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    Re: Stat Question?

    Not to hijack the thread but as long as we're talking stats, I got a question about stolen bases. Are there any metrics that give a definitive value of steals and caught stealings? It would seem logical that in a sense a SB helps a player's SLG while a CS would hurt their OBP. is this evident in any stats, etc?

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    Re: Stat Question?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsIn07
    Not to hijack the thread but as long as we're talking stats, I got a question about stolen bases. Are there any metrics that give a definitive value of steals and caught stealings? It would seem logical that in a sense a SB helps a player's SLG while a CS would hurt their OBP. is this evident in any stats, etc?
    I'll do more research later when I have time, but just altering the data I have on the Reds this season, it appears that the Runs Created formula assigns about 0.20 Runs for adding an additional SB to their total and subtracts about 0.40 Runs for each additional Caught Stealing.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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    Re: Stat Question?

    give a definitive value of steals and caught stealings?
    As a general play, the rule of thumb historically is that you need at least a 66% success ratio to make the stolen base a good play. In times where lots of runs are scored, that number goes up to %75 or so. That's about where we're at right now. In times where runs are very scarce it may go as low as %60 or so.

    That's as a general play. There are several stats from different sources that make this kind of adjustment using slightly different coefficients based on run expectancy tables.

    The thing is...the value of every steal is most certainly not the same. There most certainly are clutch and non clutch steals. Sometimes it's just a nuisance play and sometimes the game can turn on it. Accounting for that kind of information is, frankly, a bear and to my knowledge nobody does that kind of thing with win expectancy tables. Well, to be more specific at least not easily available in the public domain.
    Last edited by dfs; 08-16-2006 at 01:49 PM.

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    Re: Stat Question?

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51
    That is a near perfect analysis. I will throw in there, that he thinks his pitchers have better fastballs than they really do and calls for them too often in situations where they shouldn't be called.
    Truer words have never been spoken.
    It's absolutely pathetic that people can't have an opinion from actually watching games and supplementing that with stats. If you voice an opinion that doesn't fit into a black/white box you will get completely misrepresented and basically called a tobacco chewing traditionalist...
    Cedric 3/24/08

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    Re: Stat Question?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD
    I've always been of the opinion that catching bad pitchers tends to enhance Passed Ball totals as bad pitchers might be more likely to cross up their catchers and/or lack command.

    That being said, he's got other defensive advantages even if his PB rates are average. He's like a cat out of the box. His arm is so good that only SB specialists try to run on him. Is he a tier one defensive specialist like Yadier Molina or what Brad Ausmus and Mike Matheny used to be? No. But he's a high tier two guy who, IMHO, has long been underappreciated for what he does well due to the perception (partly fueled by PB totals in years prior) that he's a bad receiver.

    Now if he'll just start hitting again...

    Couldn't agree more with everything you say. You have to believe that his lacking offense is largely due to loss of playing time, and the injury at the beginning of the season didn't help either. LaRue has always seemed, at least to me, to overswing. He also has an exaggerated uppercut in his swing. I think that he is really overswinging now becaue his extended slump is getting into his head and he is trying too hard. It also seems to me, without looking at stats, that he hits a lot of ground balls. That would lead me to believe that he is trying to get the ball into the air, hence the exaggerated uppercut, and that is just compounding his problem. Those again are just some observations without really studying the situation.


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