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Thread: The value of long at bats ?

  1. #1
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    The value of long at bats ?

    Intuitivley I know that a batter making a pitcher throw a lot of pitches durring a single at bat is a good thing.

    But are there any numbers to show how good of thing this is?

    Are there any stats to show that the next batter has an X% better chance of getting a hit? Or that for each additional pitch thrown over the "average" at bat amount, the chances for runs scored increases by y%? Is there even an "average" number of pitches thrown in a normal MLB at bat?

    Just currious if there is any numerical data to support how good it is when a batter strings a pitcher out on a long at bat.
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  3. #2
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: The value of long at bats ?

    Attrition is a pitchers enemy, each pitch reveals more about the pitchers stuff, takes more out of him and allows the hitter to get his timing set up.

    Players with high pitches seen per at bat are generally players that produce runs, pitchers with steady manageble pitch counts are efficiant and most likely not prone to mechanical failures or very poor walk rates, reducing baserunners and runs.

  4. #3
    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: The value of long at bats ?

    Top 25 P/PA
    1. Abreu 4.51
    2. Youkilis 4.42
    3. Giambi 4.36
    4. Thomas 4.35
    5. Johnson 4.28
    6. Thome 4.26
    6. Burrell 4.26
    8. Glaus 4.25
    9. Hafner 4.21
    10. Beltran 4.20
    10. Ensberg 4.20
    12. Carroll 4.19
    13. Dunn 4.18
    14. Ramirez 4.16
    14. Shelton 4.16
    14. Peralta 4.16
    17. Dye 4.14
    18. Cuddyer 4.13
    19. Podsednik 4.11
    19. Inge 4.11
    19. Hall 4.11
    22. Cameron 4.10
    22. Granderson 4.10
    24. Freel 4.09
    25. Kearns 4.08
    25. Lopez 4.08

    there's a trend there, there is.
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    Re: The value of long at bats ?

    Got pitchers' P/PA anywhere???
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

  6. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: The value of long at bats ?

    There was an article right after the Yanks picked up Abreu which showed a very strong correlation between BB/G by a team and its winning percentage. I'm making the following numbers up, but it was something like:

    3 BB/G: .480
    4 BB/G: .520
    5 BB/G: .600

    The increase from 4 to 5 walks per game meant HUGE things. Whether or not the influence is on the next batter or not, I don't know. However, I do know that getting starters out of the game in the 5th inning on a regular basis drastically increases your chances of winning.

    It's a macro level view of things, but it's valid.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #6
    Pagan/Asatru Ravenlord's Avatar
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    Re: The value of long at bats ?

    Quote Originally Posted by dabvu2498
    Got pitchers' P/PA anywhere???
    Top 25 P/PA
    1. Young 4.15
    2. Meche 4.12
    3. O. Hernandez 4.10
    4. Cain 4.03
    5. Kazmir 3.99
    5. Peavy 3.99
    7. Zambrano 3.98
    8. Johnson 3.94
    9. Schmidt 3.93
    9. Penny 3.93
    11. Bedard 3.92
    12. Harang 3.91
    12. Lilly 3.91
    12. Myers 3.91
    15. Glavine 3.89
    15. Zito 3.89
    17. Schilling 3.88
    17. Arroyo 3.88
    19. Olsen 3.85
    20. Johnson 3.84
    20. Davis 3.84
    22. F. Hernandez 3.81
    22. Francis 3.81
    23. 8 tied at 3.80

    i'm surpised there are a bunch of good pitchers on that list (actually i'm even more surprised i found the stat).
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    Bread Gloves Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: The value of long at bats ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenlord
    Top 25 P/PA
    1. Young 4.15
    2. Meche 4.12
    3. O. Hernandez 4.10
    4. Cain 4.03
    5. Kazmir 3.99
    5. Peavy 3.99
    7. Zambrano 3.98
    8. Johnson 3.94
    9. Schmidt 3.93
    9. Penny 3.93
    11. Bedard 3.92
    12. Harang 3.91
    12. Lilly 3.91
    12. Myers 3.91
    15. Glavine 3.89
    15. Zito 3.89
    17. Schilling 3.88
    17. Arroyo 3.88
    19. Olsen 3.85
    20. Johnson 3.84
    20. Davis 3.84
    22. F. Hernandez 3.81
    22. Francis 3.81
    23. 8 tied at 3.80

    i'm surpised there are a bunch of good pitchers on that list (actually i'm even more surprised i found the stat).
    I'm not. Guys that strike out a lot of hitters usually throw more pitches. You figure that you've probably got to throw what 4, 5, 6 pitches on average for a strike out? The good pitchers make up for it in not walking a lot of hitters.

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    Re: The value of long at bats ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Razor Shines 1B
    I'm not. Guys that strike out a lot of hitters usually throw more pitches. You figure that you've probably got to throw what 4, 5, 6 pitches on average for a strike out? The good pitchers make up for it in not walking a lot of hitters.
    That is why some guys are on the high P/PA list for hitters. Look at Dunn, if he made contact on more hittable pitches, even with his good eye, his p/pa would be much lower. He has some AB's that he swings through a good strike on the 2nd pitch. Then walks. Had he been able to make contact, he would have only seen 2 pitches. I'm going to look further into the idea that "contact" hitters see fewer pitches, with the exception of good patient hitters (like Hatteberg this year)

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    Re: The value of long at bats ?

    I'm not either. Bad stuff gets thwacked early and often.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  11. #10
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    Re: The value of long at bats ?

    the only value i find in a long at-bat is that if you absolutely have to go take care of any kind of business (which can include but is not necessarily limited to flushing and/or withdrawing another cold beverage) you don't really miss too much of the game. just sayin'

  12. #11
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: The value of long at bats ?

    you don't really miss too much of the game.
    I'd debate that, I watched a 12 pitch Sorano at bat last night that beautiful, like a sunset.. unique and powerful... on both sides.

    It ended with a double, then I had a smoke to make it perfect.

  13. #12
    Member NJReds's Avatar
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    Re: The value of long at bats ?

    Interesting to see Abreu and Giambi at the top of the list. There was a stat that in last Friday's doubleheader sweep that those two players combined to see something like 150 pitches in the DH.

  14. #13
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    Re: The value of long at bats ?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    I'd debate that, I watched a 12 pitch Sorano at bat last night that beautiful, like a sunset.. unique and powerful... on both sides.

    It ended with a double, then I had a smoke to make it perfect.
    point taken..

  15. #14
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: The value of long at bats ?

    Someone posted an article this spring (March I think) describing late-count and early-count hitters. I tried to find it, but couldn't. It's somewhat relevant to this discussion. If someone can dig it up and post a link, I'd appreciate it.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Re: The value of long at bats ?

    Quote Originally Posted by NJReds
    Interesting to see Abreu and Giambi at the top of the list. There was a stat that in last Friday's doubleheader sweep that those two players combined to see something like 150 pitches in the DH.

    Probably a bit exaggerated because Giambi didn't even start the 2nd game. But they did combine for 56 in the first game in 12 plate appearances. They went a combined 6-9 with 3 walks in that first game.


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