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Thread: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

  1. #1
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    Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    Any logical reason why Dunn swings and misses so much, then can crush a ball 450 feet?

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    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Fazio
    Any logical reason why Dunn swings and misses so much, then can crush a ball 450 feet?
    Ask Hall-of-Famer Reggie Jackson... he had the same "problem".
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

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    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    It's simply a matter of guessing. And when he guesses right, goodbye baseball.

    If you want Tony Gwynn, you'll lose about 30 homers a year. Take your pick. Not everybody can be Carlos Beltran.

  5. #4
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    Uh, because hitting a baseball against major league pitchers is hard.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    18.5% of Dunns swings were misses last year.

    ARod was 19.1% and he won the MVP.

    Go figure.

  7. #6
    Member forfreelin04's Avatar
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    Re: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    Hard to do, true. But when he is striking out frequently he tends to not stay back on his back foot nearly as long which causes his swing to become longer. Hence the missing. I think he explained this himself one time on Welsh's Mechanics of the Game. You'll also see him swing at more pitches out of the zone which he is usually quite good at not doing. Usually, this is because he is trying to will himself out of a slump.

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    Re: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    Quote Originally Posted by forfreelin04
    Hard to do, true. But when he is striking out frequently he tends to not stay back on his back foot nearly as long which causes his swing to become longer. Hence the missing. I think he explained this himself one time on Welsh's Mechanics of the Game. You'll also see him swing at more pitches out of the zone which he is usually quite good at not doing. Usually, this is because he is trying to will himself out of a slump.

    I believe the essential part is that his swing is so long. The longer your swing, the more you will miss. Imagine trying to hit a golf ball (if you play golf) with an 8 foot long driver. Now use a shorter 3-wood. Obviously easier to hit with the 3-wood. That is an exaggerated answer, but maybe you will get the idea.
    Last edited by TOBTTReds; 08-29-2006 at 08:22 PM.

  9. #8
    Member forfreelin04's Avatar
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    Re: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    Dunn is gonna have to carry this team pretty soon. Edwin is gonna cool off and I don't see Griffey doing it.

  10. #9
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    Recognizing the location of the ball visually and the ability to make your bat hit that ball are two different things. I don't know how actual scouts break it down, but I would do it this way:

    1.) Ability to recognize pitch location (Rec)
    2.) Ability to make contact (Con)
    3.) Ability to drive the ball when contact is made (Pow)

    If 10 is "Hall of Fame" ability, 5 is average major leaguer, and 0 is unsuitable for the majors, I'd rate Dunn:

    Pow: 10
    Rec: 9
    Con: 4

    Frankly I'm surprised more pitchers don't challenge him, particularly when the bases are empty. He's got some places in the zone where he doesn't make great contact. However, if gets one in his wheelhouse, he'll crush it.

    Now that Barry Bonds' bat has slowed, you'll notice his contact rate is way down. Same with Frank Thomas. Each of the above three skills age differently. Contact ability tends to peak early in a player's career (before 30). Contact is about hand/eye coordination and fast twitch muscles. These are, for the most part, in decline throughout a player's career. This isn't always reflected in batting average, because of the way contact interacts with power and recognition when it comes to actually getting hits.

    Dunn has what are often referred to as "old player" skills. That doesn't bode well for his career arc. It's not likely that he'll ever hit for higher averages than he does now, though he could if he fixes a specific problem which causes him to make poor contact now. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain a .260ish average as he goes in to his early 30's.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #10
    Member BigREDSfaninKY's Avatar
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    Re: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou
    18.5% of Dunns swings were misses last year.

    ARod was 19.1% and he won the MVP.

    Go figure.
    Where do you find these stats?

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    Re: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Fazio
    Any logical reason why Dunn swings and misses so much, then can crush a ball 450 feet?
    I think the root of it and of a lot of the Reds problems at times is lack of discipline. At their best the Reds can beat anybody in MLB. But sometimes they do the dumbest things and they were doing it before Narron got there. Just a general lack of fundamentals.

  13. #12
    Member forfreelin04's Avatar
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    Re: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    Fundamentals, Oh no! Fundamentals in baseball!! You have awaken the Lords of the Stat!!! I can hear there murmurs!!!

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    Re: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Fazio
    Any logical reason why Dunn swings and misses so much, then can crush a ball 450 feet?
    Because he swings a lot.

  15. #14
    Member forfreelin04's Avatar
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    Re: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    Quote Originally Posted by gilpdawg
    Because he swings a lot.
    Short and simple. I love it. He does seem to be swinging alot more then normal. I hate caught looking K's, but at least he is getting burned by the umpires on those low strike calls and not hurting himself.

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    Re: Why does Dunn swing and miss so much?

    Quote Originally Posted by forfreelin04
    Fundamentals, Oh no! Fundamentals in baseball!! You have awaken the Lords of the Stat!!! I can hear there murmurs!!!
    SHHH!!! Maybe if we remain quiet they'll stay away. Or we can just quietly chant OBP! OBP! OBP!


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