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Thread: Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak

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    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak

    Another thread inspired this idea, so rather than hijack that thread, I decided to start another.
    Does hitting in Rookie ball matter to a player’s future success?

    Just for fun, here is a link to every Red playing right now, every Red from the last couple of seasons, several AAAA players, and a few top prospects in the Reds system right now. Take a peek at how everyone did in Rookie ball, and how old they were when they went thru that level.

    Drew Stubbs - College Player - 21 - .251AVG/.366OBP/.402SLG/.768OPS
    David Ross - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Jason LaRue - College Player - 21 - .273AVG/.366OBP/.410SLG/.776OPS
    Scott Hatteberg - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Rich Aurilia - College Player - 20 - .337AVG/.453OBP/.465SLG/.918OPS
    Ryan Freel - JunCollege Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Chris Denorfia - College Player - 22 - .340AVG/.425OBP/.405SLG/.830OPS
    Sean Casey - College player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Joe Randa - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Dane Sardinha - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Jacob Cruz - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Brandon Larson - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Tim Hummell - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Barry Larkin - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    John Vander Wal - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Jermaine Clark - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Corky Miller - College Player - 22 - .271AVG/.455OBP/.450SLG/.905OPS
    Brendan Harris - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Jesse Guiterrez - College Player - 23 - .294/AVG.302OBP/.550SLG/.852OPS
    Matt Kata - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Andy Abad – College Player – 21 – .248AVG/.326OBP/.317SLG/.643OPS
    Aaron Boone – College Player – 21 - .273AVG/.362OBP/.453SLG/.815OPS
    Kelly Stinnett – College Player – Skipped Rookie Ball
    Steve Smitherman – College Player – 21 - .316AVG/.373OBP/.551SLG/.924OPS
    Eric Valent – College Player – Skipped Rookie Ball
    Todd Walker – College Player – Skipped Rookie Ball
    Brady Clark – College Player – Skipped Rookie Ball
    Javier Valentin - HS Player - 17 & 18 - .226AVG/.290OBP/.356SLG/.646OPS
    Royce Clayton - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Brandon Phillips - HS Player - 18 - .290AVG/.352OBP/.408SLG/.760OPS
    Edwin Encarnacion - HS Player - 17 & 18 - .284AVG/.333OBP/.384SLG/.717OPS
    Adam Dunn - HS Player - 18 - .288AVG/.404OBP/.424SLG/.828
    Ken Griffey - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Joey Votto - HS Player - 18 & 19 - .296AVG/.407OBP/.506SLG/.913OPS
    Jay Bruce - HS Player - 18 - .266AVG/.341OBP/.484SLG/.825OPS
    Austin Kearns - HS Player - 18 - .315AVG/.433OBP/.426SLG/.859OPS
    Felipe Lopez - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Todd Hollandsworth - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
    Jason Romano - HS Player - 18 - .257AVG/.340OBP/.413SLG/.753OPS
    Brandon Watson - HS Player - 17 - .303AVG/.365OBP/.319SLG/.684SLG
    Norris Hopper - HS Player - 19 & 20 - .279AVG/.350OBP/.314SLG/.664OPS
    Cody Ross - HS Player - 18 - .218AVG/.303OBP/.401SLG/.704OPS
    Reggie Taylor – HS Player – 18 - .222AVG/.295OBP/.314SLG/.609OPS
    Russell Branyon – HS Player – 18 – 211AVG/.316OBP/.357SLG/.673OPS
    Dernell Stenson – HS Player – 18 - .216AVG/.332OBP/.330SLG/.662OPS
    Gookie Dawkins – HS Player – 18 - .241AVG/.315OBP/.308SLG/.623OPS
    Anderson Machado - FA Player - 17 & 18 - .226AVG/.318OBP/.296SLG/.614OPS
    Miguel Perez - FA Player - 17 & 18 - .345AVG/.406OBP/.406SLG/.812OPS
    Juan Castro - FA Player - 19 - .276AVG/.375OBP/.327SLG/.702OPS
    Wily Mo Pena - FA Player - 17 - .247AVG/.303OBP/.446SLG/.749OPS
    Ray Olmedo - FA Player - 18 - .236AVG/.286OBP/.323SLG/.609OPS
    D'Angelo Jiminez - FA Player - 17 - .280AVG/.354OBP/.449SLG/.803OPS
    Ruben Mateo – FA Player – 17 - .301AVG/.376OBP/.455SLG/.831OPS
    Jose Guillen – FA Player – 18 - .264AVG/.313OBP/.427SLG/.740OPS
    And here are the players from the 2002, 2003 & 2004 Billings teams who did not post at least an .800 OPS
    2002
    Brad Correll
    Daniel Mateo
    Walter Olmstead
    Alan Moye
    Steve Booth
    Troy Cairns
    Manuel Paula
    Rafael Motooka
    Jarrod Schmidt
    Ryan Fry
    Jared Humphries
    Yinner Colina
    Jeremy Ison
    2003
    Chris Dickerson
    Rusty Beale
    Rusty Beale
    Phil Gentry
    Robert Mosby
    Troy Cairns
    Juan Acevedo
    Will Hudson
    Chad Ziemendorf
    Kyle Smith
    Clay Cleveland
    Manuel Paula
    Jeff Urgelles
    Ivan Reyes
    Tonys Gutierrez
    Rafael Motooka
    2004
    Bradley Key
    Trevor Lawhorn
    Paul Janish
    Drew Anderson
    Travis Kaats
    Craig Tatum
    Drew Phillips
    Elvin Beltre
    B.J. Szymanski
    Jason Ellis
    Tiago Campos
    J.D. Roberts
    Jordan Belcher
    Matt Levering
    Reynaldo Gonzalez
    So there are your comparables. Only Jason LaRue and Andy Abad of the group of college players who didn’t skip Rookie ball had a below .800OPS. LaRue spent the next two seasons after rookie ball in Low A, while it took Abad four years of cycling between A & AA before he could stick at AAA, which is about his proper level. The rest were deemed good enough to place higher. The HS players and FA signings are a big mish mash of results, but because of the young age, all had years to develop before moving up to the higher levels. You'll notice the 2002-2004 list littered with washouts and failures, not a single real prospect on that list.

    Does Stubbs still have a chance? Sure, the game of baseball has lots of quirky ways about it. But it does not look promising.
    Last edited by jmcclain19; 08-27-2006 at 03:32 AM.


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