Hitting in Rookie ball - Why Drew Stubbs future looks bleak

[jmcclain19]

Another thread inspired this idea, so rather than hijack that thread, I decided to start another.
Does hitting in Rookie ball matter to a player’s future success?

Just for fun, here is a link to every Red playing right now, every Red from the last couple of seasons, several AAAA players, and a few top prospects in the Reds system right now. Take a peek at how everyone did in Rookie ball, and how old they were when they went thru that level.

Drew Stubbs - College Player - 21 - .251AVG/.366OBP/.402SLG/.768OPS

David Ross - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jason LaRue - College Player - 21 - .273AVG/.366OBP/.410SLG/.776OPS
Scott Hatteberg - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Rich Aurilia - College Player - 20 - .337AVG/.453OBP/.465SLG/.918OPS
Ryan Freel - JunCollege Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Chris Denorfia - College Player - 22 - .340AVG/.425OBP/.405SLG/.830OPS
Sean Casey - College player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Joe Randa - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Dane Sardinha - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jacob Cruz - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Brandon Larson - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Tim Hummell - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Barry Larkin - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
John Vander Wal - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jermaine Clark - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Corky Miller - College Player - 22 - .271AVG/.455OBP/.450SLG/.905OPS
Brendan Harris - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jesse Guiterrez - College Player - 23 - .294/AVG.302OBP/.550SLG/.852OPS
Matt Kata - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Andy Abad – College Player – 21 – .248AVG/.326OBP/.317SLG/.643OPS
Aaron Boone – College Player – 21 - .273AVG/.362OBP/.453SLG/.815OPS
Kelly Stinnett – College Player – Skipped Rookie Ball
Steve Smitherman – College Player – 21 - .316AVG/.373OBP/.551SLG/.924OPS
Eric Valent – College Player – Skipped Rookie Ball
Todd Walker – College Player – Skipped Rookie Ball
Brady Clark – College Player – Skipped Rookie Ball

Javier Valentin - HS Player - 17 & 18 - .226AVG/.290OBP/.356SLG/.646OPS
Royce Clayton - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Brandon Phillips - HS Player - 18 - .290AVG/.352OBP/.408SLG/.760OPS
Edwin Encarnacion - HS Player - 17 & 18 - .284AVG/.333OBP/.384SLG/.717OPS
Adam Dunn - HS Player - 18 - .288AVG/.404OBP/.424SLG/.828
Ken Griffey - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Joey Votto - HS Player - 18 & 19 - .296AVG/.407OBP/.506SLG/.913OPS
Jay Bruce - HS Player - 18 - .266AVG/.341OBP/.484SLG/.825OPS
Austin Kearns - HS Player - 18 - .315AVG/.433OBP/.426SLG/.859OPS
Felipe Lopez - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Todd Hollandsworth - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jason Romano - HS Player - 18 - .257AVG/.340OBP/.413SLG/.753OPS
Brandon Watson - HS Player - 17 - .303AVG/.365OBP/.319SLG/.684SLG
Norris Hopper - HS Player - 19 & 20 - .279AVG/.350OBP/.314SLG/.664OPS
Cody Ross - HS Player - 18 - .218AVG/.303OBP/.401SLG/.704OPS
Reggie Taylor – HS Player – 18 - .222AVG/.295OBP/.314SLG/.609OPS
Russell Branyon – HS Player – 18 – 211AVG/.316OBP/.357SLG/.673OPS
Dernell Stenson – HS Player – 18 - .216AVG/.332OBP/.330SLG/.662OPS
Gookie Dawkins – HS Player – 18 - .241AVG/.315OBP/.308SLG/.623OPS

Anderson Machado - FA Player - 17 & 18 - .226AVG/.318OBP/.296SLG/.614OPS
Miguel Perez - FA Player - 17 & 18 - .345AVG/.406OBP/.406SLG/.812OPS
Juan Castro - FA Player - 19 - .276AVG/.375OBP/.327SLG/.702OPS
Wily Mo Pena - FA Player - 17 - .247AVG/.303OBP/.446SLG/.749OPS
Ray Olmedo - FA Player - 18 - .236AVG/.286OBP/.323SLG/.609OPS
D'Angelo Jiminez - FA Player - 17 - .280AVG/.354OBP/.449SLG/.803OPS
Ruben Mateo – FA Player – 17 - .301AVG/.376OBP/.455SLG/.831OPS
Jose Guillen – FA Player – 18 - .264AVG/.313OBP/.427SLG/.740OPS

And here are the players from the 2002, 2003 & 2004 Billings teams who did not post at least an .800 OPS

2002
Brad Correll
Daniel Mateo
Walter Olmstead
Alan Moye
Steve Booth
Troy Cairns
Manuel Paula
Rafael Motooka
Jarrod Schmidt
Ryan Fry
Jared Humphries
Yinner Colina
Jeremy Ison
2003
Chris Dickerson
Rusty Beale
Rusty Beale
Phil Gentry
Robert Mosby
Troy Cairns
Juan Acevedo
Will Hudson
Chad Ziemendorf
Kyle Smith
Clay Cleveland
Manuel Paula
Jeff Urgelles
Ivan Reyes
Tonys Gutierrez
Rafael Motooka
2004
Bradley Key
Trevor Lawhorn
Paul Janish
Drew Anderson
Travis Kaats
Craig Tatum
Drew Phillips
Elvin Beltre
B.J. Szymanski
Jason Ellis
Tiago Campos
J.D. Roberts
Jordan Belcher
Matt Levering
Reynaldo Gonzalez

So there are your comparables. Only Jason LaRue and Andy Abad of the group of college players who didn’t skip Rookie ball had a below .800OPS. LaRue spent the next two seasons after rookie ball in Low A, while it took Abad four years of cycling between A & AA before he could stick at AAA, which is about his proper level. The rest were deemed good enough to place higher. The HS players and FA signings are a big mish mash of results, but because of the young age, all had years to develop before moving up to the higher levels. You'll notice the 2002-2004 list littered with washouts and failures, not a single real prospect on that list.

Does Stubbs still have a chance? Sure, the game of baseball has lots of quirky ways about it. But it does not look promising.