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Thread: Tim Lincecum - from BP

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Tim Lincecum - from BP

    The below from Kevin Goldstein at BP. I advocated taking Lincecum this year based on everything I had seen. Certainly you can't call any pitching a sure thing, but wow.

    Tim Lincecum, rhp, San Jose Giants

    In the age of ubiquitous communication, information can come from anybody, anywhere, and at any time. Last night while looking at boxscores from the day's games, an IM window popped up from somebody who sees as much California League action as anyone, who was watching San Jose take on Visalia. Four simple words: "Tim Lincecum is sick." Sitting at 95-96 mph and touching 98 on numerous occasions, Lincecum allowed one hit over 5.2 shutout innings, allowing one hit, walking two and striking out 11. In 26.2 innings as a pro, Lincecum has 49 strikeouts and has limited opposing batters to a .138 average. At 5-foot-11 and 160 pounds, Lincecum's ability to do what he does is often referred to as "freakish." One of my few hobbies outside of baseball is reading a lot and collecting a little concerning sideshows of the early 20th century, in particular, human oddities. In that world, there were two types of performers--the real deal, and "grifts," or fakes--and part of the interest in attending such shows was the debate over which attractions were the genuine article. Those who thought Lincecum was a grift dropped him to the 10th overall pick... and they were wrong.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Tim Lincecum - from BP

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick
    The below from Kevin Goldstein at BP. I advocated taking Lincecum this year based on everything I had seen. Certainly you can't call any pitching a sure thing, but wow.
    There was never really a doubt tom whether he had the skill and "stuff" to be a good pitcher, but it was his mechanics and build that I didn't like (and I think the Reds would agree).

    He is a gamble based on how he is a big injury risk and may turn out to be better suited for the bullpen.

    With that said, I would have still taken him over Stubbs based on how close he is to the majors while possessing a high ceiling. He's a good bet to make the majors while still having a good ceiling. Both of those aspects are very important.

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    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Tim Lincecum - from BP

    I don't think anyone on this board can lay claim to the solo title of wanting to draft a certain player over Stubbs. I would much rather have had a pitcher Lincecum, or Drabek, spring to mind. We really don't need all the "what if posts?", for another pitcher ala Kazmir, and Sowers. I grow weary of those posts. Most of us wanted a pitcher, we didn't get one, move on.

    I am ok with the Stubbs pick today, not because of his performance, but the premise that the Reds will need a centerfielder in three years, might as well get him, and fix his swing, he has the tools and can take a walk.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Tim Lincecum - from BP

    Going into the draft, I just didnt want Drew Stubbs. I wanted anyone taken in the top 40 that was not Drew Stubbs. If he turns it around and becomes a decent player one day, I will eat crow all day long. Until then, I still cant believe they took a guy who had so many questions about his ability to hit with a top 10 pick.

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Tim Lincecum - from BP

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck
    I don't think anyone on this board can lay claim to the solo title of wanting to draft a certain player over Stubbs.
    A lot of people wanted Lincecum. I sure hope Stubbs pants fit like a glove.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Tim Lincecum - from BP

    I wasn't trying to claim the exclusive title and proclaim myself genius; just showing where the early returns fell. Certainly our system is quite weak in terms of good bats at the lower levels, and it's way too early to draw any conclusion about Stubbs or anybody else (though many are worried about his contact rate). Also, as was pointed out, Lincecum has funky mechanics and could break down before or shortly after he makes any impact.

    Just saying that at least according to one person, if there were any worries that his stuff wouldn't translate, that concern seems to have been addressed.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Tim Lincecum - from BP

    I'm in the camp of people who advocated Lincecum on draft day. Leading to the draft I also had some interest in Max Scherzer. I just didn't understand why we drafted a toolsy outfielder when starting pitching is a black hole in the organization. Can you imagine the buzz on this board if we had Bailey-Cueto-Lincecum in this organization? I would put that group of three against any other organization's group of three.

    I haven't given up on Stubbs; I just never understood why he was rated so highly.
    Stop! Heisey time!

  9. #8
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Tim Lincecum - from BP

    Lincecum has funky mechanics and could break down before or shortly after he makes any impact.
    What's wrong with his mechanics? I'm definitely not an expert, but even though he throws completely out of his shoes, Lincecum's delivery doesn't look all that crazy. The 5'11" frame scares me more than his delivery.

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Tim Lincecum - from BP

    I was one of the people calling for the Reds to draft Tim Lincecum. Too damn bad they didn't. Homer Bailey and Tim Lincecum would be a sick 1-2 duo for the next decade.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  11. #10
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Tim Lincecum - from BP

    I'm so glad the Reds drafted Stubbs over Lincecum. The Reds definitely don't need his type of pitching, you know, dominant.

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    Re: Tim Lincecum - from BP

    Lincecum should beat up high A with is polish and stuff.

    I don't see him as a starter however, and that will factor into decisions and it did to more teams than the Reds.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Tim Lincecum - from BP

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    I am ok with the Stubbs pick today, not because of his performance, but the premise that the Reds will need a centerfielder in three years, might as well get him, and fix his swing, he has the tools and can take a walk.
    I don't think the Reds can wait three years to address the black hole in CF. A real solution is needed that will:

    1. Improve the defense and help the pitching staff.
    2. Have enough "street cred" in the player community to spur Griffey to move.

    I suppose Ryan Freel could qualify for number 1, but to satisfy number 2 they will need to go outside the organization. If so, then Stubbs becomes a non-priority as compared to a pitcher (I think he already is anyway).
    Last edited by mth123; 08-30-2006 at 07:34 AM.

  14. #13
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Tim Lincecum - from BP

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I don't think the Reds can wait three years to address the black hole in CF. A real solution is needed that will:

    1. Improve the defense and help the pitching staff.
    2. Have enough "street cred" in the player community to spur Griffey to move.

    I suppose Ryan Freel could qualify for number 1, but to satisfy number 2 they will need to go outside the organization. If so, then Stubbs becomes a non-priority as compared to a pitcher (I think he already is anyway).
    Your statement is true, but the problem is will Griffey move, or will Narron and Krivsky avoid the subject.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    Re: Tim Lincecum - from BP

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    Your statement is true, but the problem is will Griffey move, or will Narron and Krivsky avoid the subject.
    Doesn't matter. Griffey only has 2 more years on his contract and he may not even survive them. By the time if by a miracle, Stubbs reached the majors, Griffey would be finished IMO.

  16. #15
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Tim Lincecum - from BP

    Well, at least we got Bailey and Bruce. You have to have some 1st round busts to even it out, especially with this organization.

    It just seems that once again the Reds have out-thought themselves by passing on Lincecum.

    Whether he was helping the 'pen late in the season with a chance to eventually start (see Roy Oswalt) or just a full year of minor league ball away, I thought that he was the best pick for our slot.

    I hope I'm wrong, but Drew Stubbs does not appear worthy of the money or the selection. There were Stubbs doubters long before the Reds drafted him. I'm sure they had good reason and his perfomance so far, at 22, in rookie league -a hitters league no less, where all other regulars have out hit him, speaks volumes.

    I'm sure he's got a great glove and is a super-duper kid, but unfortunately, that's not quite enough.


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